Our FCS Playoff Picture series returned last week, featuring 50 teams that were still mathematically alive for the postseason. That number has decreased to 46 teams, which means 22 teams that are featured below will be eliminated over the final three weeks of the season.

After each week, we will look at each conference and take a look at which teams should be considered locks, contenders, or have work to do. 24 teams will make the 2026 FCS Playoffs, which feature 11 automatic bids and 13 at-large bids. The focus of this series will be the at-large bids and the "bubble" picture, but we will also discuss some of the conference races.

"Locks" are teams that have clinched an auto bid or have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large bid. "Should Be In" are teams that are on track to be in the playoffs but must avoid slip-ups down the stretch. "Work To Do" features teams that still need stronger resumes to make the playoffs.

Below is a breakdown of the playoff picture conference by conference entering Week 10.

Big Sky

Locks: Montana State

The Bobcats are a lock with an 8-1 overall record, an FBS win over Nevada, and a projected SOS of 20th. Montana State was already revealed as the committee's No. 1 seed, which means they just need to handle business to keep that top seed. They have one of the top wins in the country over NAU. The Bobcats passed the eye test this past weekend, dominating Cal Poly. This team should easily get to 9 wins, but the final seed will be determined by how the Bobcats perform against Idaho State and Montana at the end of the year.

Should Be In: Northern Arizona

Northern Arizona sits in an excellent spot, especially after handling one of its toughest remaining tests this past weekend against Southern Utah. The Lumberjacks only have 1 FCS loss, which was a two-score loss to Montana State in Bozeman, but they have quality wins over Montana, Idaho State, and Incarnate Word. One more win will move the Lumberjacks into "Lock" status, which should be easy with games against Cal Poly and Northern Colorado remaining. If enough chaos occurs ahead of them, the Lumberjacks could sneak into the Top 4 seed discussion.

Work To Do: Weber State, Montana, UC Davis, Idaho State, Idaho

Weber State picked up a huge win over UC Davis, and it didn't hurt that they did it in dominant fashion. The Wildcats are projected to finish with a Top 20 SOS, which could give them a chance to sneak into the field at 7-5. They could potentially lock their spot with a road win over NAU before finishing the season against Utah Tech.

Speaking of UC Davis, the Aggies had one of the softest schedules in the Big Sky, and the 40-point loss to Montana looks worse every week. The best win on their resume is against a 2-7 Eastern Washington team. They might already be eliminated barring some unexpected chaos, especially at 5-4, and there's no path for this team to get into the field with only 7 wins. Honestly, the resume is so weak that this team isn't a lock at 8-4. They have to win out to even have an argument to get into the field.

Montana picked up a much-needed win over Eastern Washington, moving the Griz to 6-3 overall and 6-2 against the FCS. There are plenty of opportunities ahead for this team. If the Griz were to win out, there would be a real chance at a Top 8 seed at 9-3 overall. But with another loss, especially with UC Davis falling off, it probably knocks them out of the Top 16 seed discussion, and two losses would put their postseason hopes on life support. Montana will finish with a projected SOS of 15th, which helps them, but the Griz have two tough games against Idaho State and Montana State after this weekend's game against Portland State.

Idaho State has had one of the weirdest seasons in the country. At 6-3 with an FBS win over Utah State, the Bengals have a projected SOS of 21st, which gives them a solid resume. Unfortunately, they finish the season against three elite offenses in Montana State, Montana, and Idaho, which isn't ideal as their offense has continued to struggle. They were fortunate to beat bottom-feeder Utah Tech last weekend. Injuries have hurt this team's potential, but they better figure it out. They need to win at least two of their final three games to make the field.

Idaho picked up another win last weekend, improving to 4-5 overall and 4-4 against the FCS. The Vandals are one of the hottest teams in the country. They will finish with a Top 10 SOS and would most likely be a lock if they can get to 7-5. The Vandals have three winnable games to end the season, but they won't be guarantees against Idaho State, UC Davis, and a sneaky Eastern Washington team.

CAA

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Monmouth, Campbell, UAlbany, Stony Brook, Bryant

Monmouth is in the best position right now, sitting at 7-1 against the FCS and a 6-0 record in conference play. The Hawks got a big win over Bryant and now have two very winnable games against North Carolina A&T and Merrimack up next. A win this week would guarantee at least a share of the CAA title, and two wins are probably enough to move this team into the "Lock" tier. A win over Campbell in the final weekend would secure the auto-bid and a Top 16 seed. The lack of signature wins and a low SOS (71st) would probably prevent them from being in the Top 8 seed discussion.

Campbell and UAlbany had a very exciting game last weekend, in which the Great Danes knocked off the Camels in a 45-35 shootout. UAlbany is 6-2 against the FCS and 4-1 in the CAA. They have games against Bryant, Maine, and North Carolina A&T remaining. They don't control their own destiny due to their loss to Monmouth. They would be a "Lock" if they can get to 9-3 overall, but even at 8-4, they would have a solid shot at being an at-large selection.

As for the Camels, they remain in a decent position with an out-of-conference win over ETSU, but they must survive a tough test against Stony Brook this weekend. If they lose, the resume would start to look very shaky. The Camels need to win at least two of their three remaining games to reach 9 wins. Everything could come down to a massive game against Monmouth to end the regular season.

Stony Brook and Bryant are barely hanging on to any playoff hopes after both losing last weekend. These teams are sitting at 5-4, but I'm not sold that either team would be a lock to make the field with 8 wins. These teams need to win out to keep their playoff hopes alive, along with some chaos on the bubble to help them.

Ivy League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Harvard, Dartmouth, Princeton

The two-bid Ivy League possibility remains alive after Dartmouth pulls off the upset against Harvard. Both teams would need to win out if this league wants to get two bids. This would give Dartmouth the auto-bid, while Harvard would most likely get an at-large bid with a 9-1 overall record. However, another team has entered the mix. Princeton sits tied atop the standings and will host Dartmouth this weekend. The Tigers need Harvard to slip up again since they lost to the Crimson earlier this season.

MVFC

Locks: Youngstown State, South Dakota State

South Dakota State and Youngstown State both elevated into "Lock" status after huge Top 10 wins last weekend. Usually, 8 Division I wins are the standard to get into this tier, but neither of these teams would miss the field with their resume, even if chaos struck and they finished with only 7 Division I wins. These teams can now focus on earning a Top 4 seed.

The Jackrabbits seemingly have the advantage here since they have the head-to-head win over the Penguins. Plus, Youngstown State only plays 11 games, which means they'll only be able to reach 9 Division I wins this season. In the committee's updated rankings, the Penguins dropped to 5th behind South Dakota State and Stephen F. Austin.

Should Be In: South Dakota

South Dakota remains in this tier after a tough loss to South Dakota State. The Coyotes are 7-2 against the FCS, and while the loss last week won't let them into the Top 4 seed conversation, if they can win out, a 9-3 USD team would certainly be a lock for one of the last Top 8 seeds. They have a much-needed bye week this weekend before two huge games against UNI and Illinois State to end the season.

Work To Do: North Dakota, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa

North Dakota finds itself in a very tricky spot. They have one of the best wins in the country over SDSU, but they are only 6-3 against the FCS after a brutal loss to Youngstown State. They face Illinois State this weekend before finishing against Southern Illinois. If they split these last two games, it will get them into the field, but two wins would put an 8-win UND team into conversations for one of the Top 16 seeds. If North Dakota were to lose both, I'm not sure they'd make the field with only 6 Division I wins.

On the surface, Illinois State appears to be in a great spot. The Redbirds are 7-2 overall with an FBS win and are ranked inside the Top 10. However, Illinois State only plays 11 Division I games and finishes with a brutal stretch of games against North Dakota, Youngstown State, and South Dakota. I don't think 6 Division I wins will be enough to make the field, so the Redbirds will need to win at least one of their last three games. If they can win two, or possibly even all three, they would be in a perfect spot for a Top 8 seed.

Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa are in desperation mode. Both need to win their remaining games, and the Salukis may not even be guaranteed to get into the field. UNI is in a much better spot with wins over North Dakota and Illinois State. However, with only 11 games, they still need to get to 7 wins, which would require them to beat both SDSU and USD, which seems unlikely.

NEC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Central Connecticut State, Duquesne, Stonehill, Long Island

The NEC will be a one-bid league, but this championship race is shaping up to be very exciting. Central Connecticut State looks like the favorite after a dominant win over Robert Morris. The Blue Devils finish the season with all three of these other contenders, starting with Stonehill this weekend. CCSU controls its own destiny as the only undefeated team in conference play, while Duquesne, Stonehill, and Long Island all sit at 3-1 in conference play.

OVC

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: SEMO, Lindenwood, Western Illinois

The OVC will be another one-bid league. SEMO appeared to be the favorite, but stumbled against Gardner-Webb this past weekend. Now, we have a three-way tie at the top of the standings, though SEMO still has the advantage with wins over Lindenwood and Western Illinois. Lindenwood and WIU have tricky games this weekend, both needing wins to remain in the playoff picture. They need to win out and SEMO to lose another game to potentially steal the auto-bid. The Lions and Leathernecks will play in the final week of the season.

Patriot League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Lehigh, Richmond, Colgate, Villanova

The Patriot League is looking more and more like a one-bid week as the season moves along. Lehigh barely escaped against Bucknell, but kept its lead in the standings. The Mountain Hawks have three tough games against Colgate, Richmond, and Lafayette to end the year. Win out, and they are in, but if they lose, there could be a 4-way tie at the top of the conference standings. If Colgate loses to Lehigh, the Raiders are most likely eliminated. Richmond and Villanova play this weekend in an elimination matchup. No team in this conference should feel safe at 8-4; it's either get the auto-bid or get to 9 Division I wins.

Pioneer League

Locks: None
Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Dayton, St. Thomas, Butler

Another one-bid league. Dayton, St. Thomas, and Butler are all tied for the conference lead with one loss. The Flyers have the advantage here with no games left against any Top 5 teams in the conference standings, plus they already have a head-to-head win over Butler. The Bulldogs and St. Thomas play each other this week in a potential elimination game.

SoCon

Locks: None
Should Be In: Tennessee Tech

The Golden Eagles got a huge road win over ETSU last week, reaching 8 wins and now have the best resume in the conference that includes a win over 2 of the Top 3 teams in the SoCon, plus a non-conference win over Monmouth. Tennessee Tech will secure "Lock" status with a win over VMI this weekend. Their biggest remaining game will be against Mercer in two weeks. If they can win both of their remaining FCS games, the Golden Eagles will finish 10-2, giving them a chance to sneak into a Top 8 seed.

Work To Do: ETSU, Mercer, Chattanooga

ETSU sits in a tricky spot after losing to Tennessee Tech. The Bucs still have a decent resume at 6-2 against the FCS, but now have 3 tricky games left on the schedule and need to win at least 2 of them. On the surface, Samford and Wofford seem like "easy" wins, but both of these teams have been very competitive and could catch ETSU if this team isn't locked in.

Mercer is 7-1 against the FCS, but has not played the other top teams in the SoCon. They will have a brutal schedule over the final few weeks with games against Tennessee Tech, Chattanooga, and ETSU remaining. Due to a solid non-conference win over ACU, the Bears should feel good about making the field with 8 wins. If they can find a way to win out, the Bears would reach 10 wins and be in the Top 8 seed discussion.

Chattanooga is in the toughest spot of any of these teams, sitting at 6-3 against the FCS. They still have an FBS game against Alabama, which makes this weekend's game against Mercer a must-win for the Mocs. This team will not have the resume to get into the field at 7-5, lacking any real signature wins.

Southland

Locks: Stephen F. Austin

Stephen F. Austin is a "Lock" at 9-0 overall and 8-0 against Division I opponents. The Lumberjacks have solid wins over Abilene Christian, Incarnate Word, and Southeastern Louisiana. It's not just the wins; SFA has looked dominant over nearly all of its competition this season and has a huge opportunity against Lamar this weekend. It would give the Lumberjacks a real signature win. It's also the best chance to impress the committee as they make a push for a Top 3 seed.

Should Be In: Lamar

Lamar looked impressive in a dominant win over UTRGV. The Cardinals are now 7-1 against the FCS and have a chance to earn "Lock" status with a win over SFA this weekend. This team has a few great non-conference wins over Abilene Christian and Idaho. Lamar has a solid projected SOS of 36th. If Lamar were to win out, the Cardinals would be 10-2 overall with a Top 40 SOS, a Top 5 win over SFA, and potentially 3-4 ranked wins. That certainly deserves a Top 6 seed, and even puts them into the discussion for a Top 4 seed depending on some other results.

Work To Do: Incarnate Word

Southeastern Louisiana is eliminated after a bad loss to East Texas A&M. The Lions can still shape the playoff picture because of their game against Incarnate Word this weekend. The Cardinals are tricky to evaluate because of their non-Division I win. However, all of UIW's losses were against Top 15 opponents on the road by a combined 15 points. They would lack a signature win at 8-4, but the on-field performance would tell you that this is a team that belongs in the field. None of it matters if the Cardinals can't get it done on the road in Hammond this weekend.

UAC

Locks: Tarleton State

Tarleton State remains a "Lock" despite a sloppy win over Eastern Kentucky. The Texans have 9 Division I wins, a Top 10 FCS win over Austin Peay, and an FBS win over Bowling Green. They have an excellent shot at a Top 2 seed if they can finish 12-0, but that starts this weekend against Abilene Christian.

Even with all the hype over the past two seasons, it has been Abilene Christian that has won the UAC championship, not the Texans. ACU is playing its best football and has been a thorn in Tarleton State's side for multiple seasons. This is a massive game for the Texans in terms of perception, plus it'll be important to have this win when the committee starts to separate some of the top contenders on Selection Sunday.

Should Be In: None
Work To Do: Austin Peay, Abilene Christian, North Alabama

Austin Peay has a really good chance to get into the field at 7-1 against the FCS, but its ceiling might be limited. Their best win is over a 4-3 West Florida team, and while they still play Abilene Christian, if they win that game, there's a chance the Wildcats will be a .500 team, so how good of a win is that really? I think it's likely the Govs end up somewhere between the No. 7 and No. 16 seed even if they win out.

Abilene Christian may only be 5-3 against the FCS, but they are once again undefeated in conference play and just crushed West Georgia 59-0 last week. The Wildcats are playing their best football of the season and still have a shot to secure the UAC auto-bid. They don't have a bad loss on their resume and will finish with a Top 20 SOS, which makes them one of the few teams that can get into the field with 7 wins. That requires at least 1 win over Tarleton State or Austin Peay.

North Alabama remains in the playoff picture at 5-4 overall with no bad losses. The Lions will need to win all of their remaining games to have a shot. They have a tough road with games against West Florida, West Georgia, and Tarleton State remaining. This weekend's game against UWF should be an exciting matchup in Florence.