Every year, the Clemson Tigers meet the Florida State Seminoles in ACC play in what is an annual rivalry in the conference. In 2026, it happens to fall on Halloween.

The Tigers are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Virginia Tech Hokies last weekend, falling to 2-8 in their last 10 home games against Power Four opponents. Now, head coach Dabo Swinney enters a hostile environment at Doak Campbell Stadium, looking to turn it around. 

However, the advanced analytics say otherwise. 

Versus Sports Simulator predicts the Tigers will lose by double digits, which would be the third time this season that they do so if the score is replicated. The model has Florida State winning by a score of 30-20, giving the Seminoles a 71% chance to win on Saturday. 

Since Clemson has begun to slip in games, the Tigers’ chance to win this game has dropped. Going into the season, Swinney’s group had a 45% chance to win at Tallahassee, but the offensive struggles throughout the season have seen those odds plummet. The lowest it got for the Tigers was after the loss to Miami, only holding a 22% chance. 

While Versus grades Clemson’s defense at a B grade, the Tigers’ C+ offense is what sets them back in this game. Meanwhile, Florida State’s offense is graded at a B+, led by dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels, and the plethora of weapons around him on the Seminole offense. 

It’s also important to note that this game has only been picked wrong once by the model, which was last year in Clemson’s home win. Otherwise, the advanced analytics typically follow how the game goes in terms of picking a winner. 

The game script is simple for Swinney: his offense has to play better, especially through the air. The glaring issue is that Clemson has only two passing touchdowns on the year, which is the fewest in the FBS in its seven games played this season. 

If the Tigers can get a score through the air, or even pick up first downs from throwing the football, they will have a shot at taking down the Seminoles in their own building yet again. However, we have yet to see that often thus far. 

Especially in an away environment, Clemson will have to be sound on both sides of the football, maybe even winning the turnover margin, to win as an underdog on Saturday night. If not, it could end up being a trick instead of a treat on the gridiron. 

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m., and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.