Greg McElroy believes USC can beat Indiana in Bloomington on Nov. 14, a pick that would hand the Hoosiers a second loss and put their College Football Playoff spot in jeopardy after two straight overtime escapes.

The ESPN analyst made the call on his “Always College Football” podcast after USC beat No. 2 Ohio State 30-18 at the Coliseum, one week after the Trojans lost 24-7 at Wisconsin and finished with minus-17 rushing yards.

Why does McElroy like USC?

USC didn’t beat Ohio State by controlling the game. Even Rece Davis picked the Buckeyes before kickoff, and Ohio State held the ball for more than 39 minutes. But Jayden Maiava hit freshman Trent Mosley on a tunnel screen for a 69-yard touchdown on the Trojans’ second snap, and freshman tight end Mark Bowman later broke off a 70-yard catch to set up a King Miller touchdown for a 27-9 lead.

“Ohio State really controlled the game for 39 minutes and USC controlled the two plays that decided it,” McElroy said.

That’s the formula McElroy expects to work again in Bloomington.

“I actually think right now with how these two teams are playing, I think USC can go to Bloomington and win on November 14th,” he said.

Indiana’s offense under fire

Indiana is 8-1, but its offense has stalled since the 19-15 loss to Ohio State. Josh Hoover has played through a right arm injury since that game, and he went 8 of 19 for 119 yards with a touchdown and an interception against Minnesota before taking a hard hit just before halftime.

Seventh-year backup Grant Wilson played the second half and threw the game-winning 25-yard touchdown to Charlie Becker on the first snap of overtime.

“Josh obviously took that hit, so I can’t remember the exact moment I made my mind up,” Curt Cignetti said. “Grant did a nice job.”

McElroy is less concerned about who plays quarterback than about how little the offense is producing on its own.

“Indiana has not sustained a touchdown drive without a takeaway or a short field since the fourth quarter against Ohio State,” McElroy said. “Those were their last three touchdown drives. All combined to go just 72 yards.”

He also sees USC exploiting it.

“Indiana’s offense hasn’t done much since October 17th and if this game is any indicator, USC might only need two, maybe three plays to go on the road and steal what would be another massive victory for Riley,” he said.

What’s at stake for Indiana?

Indiana slid two spots to No. 6 in the AP Top 25, and McElroy believes back-to-back overtime wins over unranked Michigan and Minnesota have already cost the Hoosiers a shot at a first-round bye.

“Two straight overtime wins against unranked teams probably keeps you out of the top four,” McElroy said. “So we’re off the bye. Now it’s about protecting home field.”

The USC game carries far more weight than that. Indiana’s only marquee result is the loss to Ohio State, and McElroy doesn’t think the rest of the schedule can cover for a second defeat, a concern that also showed up in our College Football Playoff rankings prediction.

“A second loss with how they’ve played and the lack of substance on some of their schedule, they might need that win against USC to guarantee themselves a playoff spot,” McElroy said.

USC’s path is more direct. The 7-2 Trojans close with Indiana, Maryland and unbeaten UCLA.

“You win those three, I don’t think there’s going to be much of a debate that’s a playoff team,” McElroy said.

USC gets a bye this week before traveling to Memorial Stadium to face Indiana on Nov. 14.