Every season comes with its own unique twists and turns. If it wasn’t that way, all of our offseason prediction pieces would be perfect and there would be no point in playing any games.

Fortunately, this year has been no different. Chief among all the unexpected outcomes are the Memphis Grizzlies, who, in what was supposed to be the first year of a rebuild, sit at 7-4 with the 10th-best net-rating in the entire association.

With teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves enduring significant injuries, and others like the Denver Nuggets looking too old for their own good, it is plausible that the West is more wide-open than we initially believed. But is it possible for the Grizzlies to be this ahead of schedule? Or is this just a flash of what they will eventually become?

It feels cliche to say this given how much this team has permeated the NBA zeitgeist since they won it all, but this Grizzlies group really does resemble the 2013-14 Beautiful Game San Antonio Spurs.

The Spurs were an incredibly deep team that reached the Platonic ideals for decision-making speed, spacing, and ball movement. Head coach Tuomas Iisalo has the Grizzlies on this current trajectory.

Iisalo basically load manages his team to ensure that they are as fresh as possible. This year, 13 Grizzlies have played at least 70 total minutes. The only other teams that can say that are the Indiana Pacers, Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Utah Jazz – all of whom have had to deal with their fair share of injuries. So, their digging deep into their bench is more out of necessity than it is a tactical decision.

Under this new regime, the Grizzlies are deploying a multi-layered, ball-screen continuity attack predicated around the pick-and-roll and side-to-side ball movement. Iisalo quite literally refers to the concept as “flow,” which is poetic considering the way the offense softly cascades from action to action. The intricacies of their futuristic style are outside of the scope of the current discussion, but if you want to learn more, be sure to check out this deep dive from Coach Gibson Pyper:

As any coach will tell you, strategy will only take you so far. You need the players who can execute your vision or else it doesn’t matter how smart you are. This offense requires skilled operates (Ty Jerome and Cam Spencer), strong screeners (Zach Edey, Cam Boozer, and Isaiah Stewart), shooters/closeout attackers (Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Jerami Grant, and Quentin Post), and speedy court mappers (Boozer may be better than any rookie at this in all of NBA history).

The bottom line is that this team has a litany of legit players. This also shows on the defensive side of the ball, where the Grizzlies currently rank fifth (just like on offense). It starts in the middle. Prior to the start of the season, I called Stewart one of the best defensive bigs in the league, and the only thing stopping me from doing the same with Edey were his lingering injury concerns. Edey, in particular, is looking like a fringe Defensive Player of the Year candidate. When he’s out there, the Grizzlies are in the 99th percentile in defensive rating (per Cleaning the Glass). That’s in a league that features Victor Wembanyama. Between him and Stewart, that’s an excellent defensive foundation.

Wells and Coward are a pair of rangy wings, with powers that perfectly compliment each other (Wells is better at defending the ball, Coward has more of a presence off-ball). Grant and GG Jackson have size and length. Boozer moves better than anyone with his muscle mass should reasonably be expected to. Kris Murray would get more buzz for his defensive prowess if his offense wasn’t so damaging.

Iisalo’s theory about keeping bodies fresh has come to fruition. While many teams are operating at half-speed, conserving themselves for the 82-game grind, the Grizzlies are moving like it’s the first round of the postseason. An abundance of youthful vigor (the Grizzlies are the third-youngest team in the league) certainly helps, too. Look at the way Wells and Boozer are sliding their feet in this first clip, or the diligence from Spencer to x-out and kill the advantage created by Braden Smith:

If you’re a fan of the team or in any way affiliated with the organization, you should feel very excited about what you are building. Boozer, Coward, Edey, Wells, Jackson, and Stewart are all 25 years old and younger. The future is bright in Memphis, but for right now, there are some indicators that tell us negative regression is coming.

The Grizzlies are second in 3-point percentage and eighth opponent 3-point percentage. Opponent 3-point percentage is almost exclusively contingent on variables outside of a defense’s control, and, on the flip side, I doubt this group will remain the second-best shooting team in the association for the entirety of the marathon.

Dunks & Threes has a metric which ranks a team’s strength of schedule from the games they’ve already played (SOS). According to that, the Grizzlies have had the second-easiest schedule this year, with their best win coming against a Warriors team that had yet to hit its stride.

In their recent loss against the Indiana Pacers, we got front row seats at their biggest shortfall: guard play/ball handling. Outside of Ty Jerome, Cam Spencer, and Scottie Pippen Jr. (who is hurt right now), the Grizzlies don’t have much in terms of pressure breakers, and none of those three gentlemen is a black belt in this art form. The Pacers’ token fullcourt pressure hounded the Grizzlies all night, to the tune of 20 turnovers and their lowest offensive rating output of the season.

This could be remedied if Iisalo started playing two of these three together more frequently, but in that case, it would weaken their formidability on the other side of the ball. Patching up one whole leads to another. A telltale sign of a flawed unit.

If I was a prospective general manager, who could pick a ten-year gig with any team in the league, it would take one hand to count off the places I’d pick over the Grizzlies. What they have here is real, and it seems more bulletproof than the last generation (no pun intended, I swear). But right now, in 2026-27, I find it difficult to see the Grizzlies as anything more than a fringe playoff team.