The Los Angeles Chargers have spent the first half of the 2026 season separating themselves from the NFL in exactly the wrong direction.

At 0-8, Los Angeles is the league’s only winless team and has become the clear early favorite to secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. The bigger question may eventually be what the Chargers, or whichever team ultimately finishes at the bottom of the standings, should do with it.

PFN’s Max Chadwick examined both sides of the race using PFN’s draft-order projections and prospect evaluations. Unlike many draft cycles, the discussion isn’t automatically centered around one quarterback. Several of the teams currently positioned near the top already have significant investments at quarterback, while some of the best prospects in the class play wide receiver or edge rusher.

That could create one of the more interesting No. 1 overall debates in recent memory.

Los Angeles Chargers Are the Early Favorite for the No. 1 Pick

The simplest part of the conversation is the current favorite.

Los Angeles dropped to 0-8 after a 44-22 loss to Houston, extending its losing streak to eight games and leaving the Chargers alone at the bottom of the NFL standings.

At the time Chadwick recorded his breakdown, PFN’s projection model gave Los Angeles a 46% chance of earning the first overall selection. That probability has since moved as another week of results was added to the simulation, but the Chargers remain the projected No. 1 team.

The underlying results explain why.

Los Angeles has scored only 121 points through eight games while allowing 219. The Chargers have been outscored by 98 points, have thrown only seven touchdown passes, and have a minus-seven turnover margin.

This isn’t a team losing a series of coin-flip games.

There are also few signs that a quick turnaround is guaranteed. Los Angeles still has Baltimore, the New York Jets, and New England coming up over the next three weeks. The Jets are struggling, but the Chargers have reached the point where every potential win matters significantly to the draft race.

One victory could allow Tennessee or Miami to close the gap quickly.

Tennessee Titans Remain the Biggest Threat

If Los Angeles doesn’t finish with the No. 1 pick, Tennessee currently looks like the most likely team to take advantage.

The Titans are 1-7 and sit only one game ahead of the Chargers. PFN’s current projection gives Tennessee a 31% chance to finish with the top selection, comfortably ahead of every team other than Los Angeles.

Tennessee’s point differential isn’t quite as ugly. The Titans have been outscored 199-144, a minus-55 margin compared with Los Angeles’ minus-98.

Still, one win through eight games puts Tennessee directly in the conversation.

The Titans are also one of the teams that could make the eventual No. 1 decision more interesting because the organization already used the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft on Cam Ward. If Tennessee ends up selecting first again, quarterback wouldn’t necessarily be the automatic direction.

That would bring the elite non-quarterbacks in this class squarely into play, or make the selection extremely valuable to another team hoping to move up for a quarterback.

Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets Are Still in Range

The race doesn’t end with Los Angeles and Tennessee.

Miami is also 1-7, giving the Dolphins a realistic chance to climb to the top if the Chargers or Titans find a few wins in the second half. PFN’s current model places Miami third in the projected order with a 12% chance at No. 1.

Philadelphia and the New York Jets are both 2-7.

The Eagles have lost seven consecutive games after dropping another divisional matchup to the Giants. Their offense has deteriorated amid injuries and quarterback changes, putting Philadelphia in a position nobody would have expected entering the season.

The Jets have also lost four straight.

New York’s situation is particularly noteworthy because of the volume of draft capital it has accumulated. PFN’s current projected order includes the Jets’ own first-round pick near the top along with additional premium selections acquired from Indianapolis and Dallas.

That gives New York more flexibility than most teams in this conversation. The Jets could end up with a premium pick while still holding enough additional capital to move around the board depending on how they evaluate the quarterback class.

There is still half a season left, so the exact order will change repeatedly. What already looks clear is that the No. 1 pick may not belong to a team desperate to draft a quarterback.

That changes everything about the prospect discussion.

Jeremiah Smith Has a Legitimate Case To Go No. 1 Overall

If the team picking first doesn’t need a quarterback, Jeremiah Smith may be the easiest player to argue for.

The Ohio State wide receiver has been one of the best players in college football since the moment he arrived in Columbus, and his junior season has only strengthened his résumé.

Through nine games, Smith has 69 receptions for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is averaging more than 17 yards per catch despite defenses building entire coverages around preventing him from creating explosive plays.

Smith has also continued producing despite instability around him. He caught seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State’s loss to Oregon and has remained one of the country’s most dominant offensive players even as the Buckeyes’ season has become more complicated.

There isn’t much projection required with Smith.

He has NFL size, explosiveness, ball skills, route-running ability, and a track record of producing against high-level competition. Chadwick’s larger question is whether a wide receiver can overcome positional history and become the first overall pick.

No wide receiver has gone No. 1 since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.

If a team such as Los Angeles or Tennessee finishes with the pick and feels comfortable at quarterback, Smith could put that precedent under real pressure.

PFN’s draft simulator users clearly see him that way. Smith has overwhelmingly been the most common player selected first overall in simulations, far ahead of any quarterback or defensive prospect.

Drew Mestemaker Could Change the Entire Draft

The player with the greatest ability to reshape the top of the board over the next few months may be Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker.

Mestemaker has gone from an intriguing quarterback prospect to one of the most productive passers in the country.

Through nine games, he has completed 206 of 309 passes for 2,962 yards, 29 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He ranks first nationally in passing touchdowns and second in passing yards.

His recent production has been especially difficult to ignore.

Mestemaker has thrown for at least 300 yards with multiple touchdowns in eight consecutive games, the longest single-season streak in Big 12 history. Against Kansas State, he completed 22 of 28 passes for 313 yards and four touchdowns while also scoring once as a runner and once as a receiver.

That made him just the fifth FBS player on record to produce four passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, and a receiving touchdown in the same game.

Chadwick has already discussed Mestemaker as a legitimate QB1 candidate for the 2027 class.

That’s important because quarterbacks can change the economics of the first pick even when the team holding it doesn’t need one.

If Mestemaker finishes the season at this pace, performs well through the pre-draft process, and convinces teams he can become a franchise quarterback, the Chargers or Titans wouldn’t necessarily have to draft him themselves.

They could trade the pick.

A quarterback-needy team willing to pay a premium to move to No. 1 could ultimately provide more value than any single prospect available to a roster already set at the position.

That possibility is why the quarterback evaluation will remain central to the draft even if Los Angeles continues losing.