Mistakes…we make them in life, and we certainly make them when handicapping horse races. Sometimes, those mistakes are caused by bad “detective” work. Oops, I didn’t notice something five races back in the form of a 10-1 shot that cost me a big ticket! Or how about when you bet a horse who was 4-1 with eight minutes to post and got hammered down to even money by the time the gate was opened. So, you picked the best horse, but the prices were so small that you took a small loss on your bet.

The mistakes I’ve presented are common ones that can happen in an eight-horse field at any track in America. It gets a lot more complicated when you’re dealing with the 14-race international extravaganza called the Breeders’ Cup.

In those races, you’ll frequently encounter top-quality American horses who have never faced each other. Then, you add in world-class horses from Europe and Japan. Field sizes can be as big as 14 horses, adding to the variables in a very difficult puzzle.

And then there is history to deal with. Great trainers have had long stretches before they won their first Breeders’ Cup race. Hall of Famer Bobby Frankel won his first after an 0-for-38 streak. John Sadler was 0-for-41 until he won the Classic in 2018 with Accelerate. Top trainer Kenny McPeek was 0-for 37 before winning the Distaff in 2024 with Thorpedo Anna.

Top jockeys are not guaranteed to win Breeders’ Cup races, either. Perennial leading rider in Kentucky Tyler Gaffalione has only posted 2 winners from 71 career mounts in the Breeders’ Cup.

So, picking winners at the Breeders’ Cup is a complicated endeavor. But it can be done, so let’s take a swing at it for the 2026 edition from Keeneland, race-by-race.

FRIDAY’S RACES

JUVENILE TURF SPRINT – PURSE: $1 MILLION5, ½ FURLONGS (TURF) 2-YEAR-OLDS
Top Pick: #3 Libertango
2^nd choice: #12 Primetime Emmy
Longshot: #4 Brickyard Belle

Libertango seems to have a class edge, with three wins and two seconds in five starts. She missed by a length last out in the Cheveley Park Stakes, which is always a telling prep for the Breeders’ Cup. Primetime Emmy is from the barn of leading French trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, who has been red hot. This one has early speed, which will help to overcome the outside post. She also likes firm turf, which could work in her favor. Brickyard Belle is a closer who should be running late along with Libertango. Trainer Miguel Clement is a very solid turf trainer and this could be a good spot for his horse.

JUVENILE FILLIES – PURSE: $2 MILLION, 1 & 1/16 MILES 2-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
Top Pick: #5 Miss Monica
2^nd choice: #10 Emphatic
Longshot: #3 Foxiest

Miss Monica blew away the field in both Del Mar starts for Baffert. Should like additional distance. Emphatic is undefeated and has shown a pattern of improving speed figures for trainer Brendan Walsh. Foxiest had a maiden score in her last start and breeding says she will like two turns. Will be running late.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF – PURSE: $1 MILLION, 1 MILE (TURF) 2-YEAR-OLD FILLIES
Top Pick: #1 Green Empress
2^nd choice: #10 Amusingly
Longshot: #9 Sun Goddess

There’s a solid “bet against” horse here in the Chad Brown trainee Domestic Agenda. She’s undefeated in two starts, but she faces some very tough European entries here. I prefer Green Empress, who won the Prix Marcel Boussac over the one mile distance at Longchamp in her last start. This race has always produced solid Breeders’ Cup runners, and trainer Francis-Henri Graffard should have her ready to show her best. Amusingly also had a solid start in her last, winning the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over seven furlongs. Top European horses tend to stretch out well to the mile on American turf courses. Very close to the top two is Sun Goddess from the barn of Aidan O’Brien. This one has won her last five starts, but the two-turn trip is a question mark.

JUVENILE – PURSE: $2 MILLION, 1 & 1/16 MILES 2-YEAR-OLDS
Top Pick: #5 Hughes
2^nd choice: #6 American History
Longshot: #3 Salahudin

The race that Bob Baffert trainee Hughes produced in the two-turn American Pharoah Stakes showed him to be as dominant as he was in shorter races. He produced a career-best Beyer speed figure of 100, which should be enough to blow this field away and keep his undefeated record intact. He’s named for hockey star Jack Hughes, who scored the winning goal for Team USA over Canada at the 2026 Milan-Cortina Olympics. The well-bred American History benefitted from a speed duel in front of him in the Breeders’ Futurity to post the win from behind. The depth of this field should make his task tougher here. Salahudin also comes from the Baffert barn and should be running late at a reasonable price.

JUVENILE TURF - PURSE: $1 MILLION, 1 MILE (TURF) 2-YEAR-OLDS
Top Pick: #5 How’s Al Today
2^nd choice: #4 Haffner
Longshot: #10 Folsom Blues

This race was tough to figure, but the factor of the unknown had me leaning toward How’s Al Today. Both of his turf races were outstanding, but they were over the European-style turf course at Kentucky Downs. He’ll have to reproduce that form over the flatter course and tighter turns at Keeneland, but I’ll take my chances that he can get it done. Haffner, from the barn of Aidan O’Brien, is a horse that seems to be rounding into his best form. He enters this race with a win over a firm course at the mile distance. If the ground stays good-to-firm, he’ll be a big factor. Joseph O’Brien sends out a horse that could be very dangerous here in Folsom Blues. He’s consistent, but his best races have clearly been on softer ground. If it rains significantly, he moves up in my estimation.

SATURDAY’S RACES

FILLY & MARE SPRINT – PURSE: $1 MILLION 7 FURLONGS 3-Y-O & UP, F & M
Top Pick: #2 Ways and Means
2^nd choice: #12 Kilwin
Longshot: #13 Nooni

There are a lot of front-runners in this race, which should set it up for the fastest horse (Ways and Means) to get a perfect stalking trip. Also, if the front speed starts fading, I look for two horses from outside posts to come running late. Just one year ago, Kilwin closed to win the seven-furlong Test Stakes at Saratoga. Last time out, he closed to be second to Ways and Means in the Ballerina Stakes. There’s also a mystery horse in here named Nooni, from the Bob Baffert barn. She was a $1.8 million purchase as a yearling, and after starting her career with two wins, she fell off form. Now, after a nearly 18-month layoff, she has returned to produce a third and two wins in three starts. The outside post will force this one to stalk or close, and that could work to her advantage. She’s 30-1 on the morning line, but it’s risky to leave her off your tickets.

TURF SPRINT - PURSE: $1 MILLION5, ½ FURLONGS (TURF) 3-YEAR-OLDS & UP
Top Pick: #3 Bacio
2^nd choice: #7 Comanche Brave
Longshot: #12 Sorrento Sky

A lot of “:44’s” is what you can expect when you see Bacio run. Keep in mind that most horses can’t come close to running a first half-mile in 44 seconds! After winning three of his first four starts in the U.S., Bacio went to England. In two starts he produced a win at Royal Ascot and then followed that by winning the prestigious Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. He’s probably the fastest turf sprinter in the world, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s trained by turf sprinter specialist Wesley Ward.

Comanche Brave is the most accomplished of the European runners here, and he’s produced Group 1 scores in his last two starts. Another who has won his last two starts is the California-based Sorrento Sky. He’s a closer, and I would not be surprised to see him flying late to pick up a piece.

DIRT MILE – PURSE: $1 MILLION, 1 MILE 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP
Top Pick: #1 Further Ado
2^nd choice: #7 Bracket Buster
Longshot: #9 Forged Steel

We know that Further Ado is a very talented horse in the hands of 2-time Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox. His affinity for Keeneland, however, is what sets him apart. His maiden win was scored at Keeneland by a margin of 20 lengths. His other start there was in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, and he won that one by 11 lengths. This field will need an amazing performance to beat him on this track.

Bracket Buster has posted five consecutive Beyer figures of over 100. His consistency makes him a key factor. Sitting at 15-1 on the morning line is the Saffie Joseph, Jr.-trained Forged Steel. A cursory look at his form shows that he has run in longer distance races of late. His three career starta at the one mile distance, however, have produced two wins and a second. He’ll be dangerous at a big price.

FILLY & MARE TURF – PURSE: $2 MILLION, 1 & 3/16 MILES (TURF) 3-Y-O & UP, F & M
Top Pick:#12 Blue Bolt
2^nd choice: #11 Precise
Longshot: #5 Kathynmarissa

Trainer Andrew Balding is having a great year near the top of the trainer standings in England. When everything is going your way, you tend to try something different. Blue Bolt is a very talented filly at the one mile distance. If he ran her in the Mile, she would have to face a tough field that would include defending champ Notable Speech. Instead, she has been entered against her own sex at this significantly longer distance. Let the naysayers beware, however. This year she is six-for-six and the last four of those have been Group 1 races. I say she’ll win easily.

Precise is an Aidan O’Brien trainee who has been consistent against top competition. Speaking of consistency, Chad Brown’s Kathynmarissa has had a great year with three wins in four starts, all in graded company. I don’t think anyone in here can match the brilliance of Blue Bolt.

SPRINT – PURSE: $2 MILLION, 6 FURLONGS 3-YEAR-OLDS & UP
Top Pick: #13 Englishman
2^nd choice:#7 Built
Longshot: #5 Listenupshance

For pure speed, Englishman is the fastest horse in training in North America. In his four sprint wins, he has had an average winning margin of about six lengths. His only loss came when he tried the longer distance of one mile. Six furlongs should fit him perfectly, and his workouts leading up to this race have been spectacular.

Built is a very consistent sprinter in top form. His last six starts (all sprints) have produced four wins, a second and a third. Listenupshance, of Lil Wayne and Lil Yachty fame, is an improving four-year-old who has won two consecutive sprint stakes on the West Coast. A strong performance here should land him in the top four at a solid price.

MILE – PURSE: 2 MILLION, 1 MILE (TURF) 3-YEAR-OLDS & UP
Top Pick: #2 Lake Forest
2^nd choice: #12 True Love
Longshot: #11 Formidable Man

The 7/5 top choice on the morning line is last year’s winner Notable Speech. I am taking the risk of going against him. My narrow choice here is Lake Forest, trained by William Haggas, who is one of the best in Europe. His last start was the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland. Rhetorical was the winner, but my eyes were on Lake Forest, who was boxed in through most of the stretch and then came flying for second. If he gets a good trip, he’ll have a chance to win at a solid price.

One of the top prep races for the BC Mile has been the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp. True Love won that race in his last start, and he’s been a solid competitor against the best milers in Europe. My American hopeful here is Formidable Man, trained by Michael McCarthy. If you toss his last race (a wide trip at quirky Kentucky Downs) he’s been competitive against the best milers on the West Coast for the last two years.

DISTAFF – PURSE: $2 MILLION, 1 & 1/8 MILES 3-Y-O & UP, F & M
Top Pick: #2 Nitrogen
2^nd choice: #4 Fully Subscribed
Longshot: #8 Splendora

This is a tough one, as all three of my picks like to be on or close to the lead. I can see Splendora on the lead with Nitrogen stalking in second and Fully Subscribed no worse than fourth in the first six furlongs. Nitrogen should take over on the turn with Fully Subscribed closing for second. Why Nitrogen? If she wins, I think she’s got a great shot for the Hall of Fame. It would give her a record of 10 wins, six seconds and three thirds in 19 starts, with some very prestigious wins in that group. She’s always been a favorite of mine, and I hope she gets it done.

TURF – PURSE: $5 MILLION, 1 & 1/2 MILES (TURF) 3-YEAR-OLDS & UP
Top Pick: #12 Diamond Necklace
2^nd choice: #13 Bay City Roller
Longshot: #9 Johanna Walsh

Diamond Necklace started her career with six consecutive wins. She was second and third in her last two starts, but they were under soft conditions in France. She’s royally bred, and reasonably firm ground should contribute to her posting a win. Bay City Roller was second in the Arc, and he’s clearly among the top distance horses in Europe. It would be no surprise if he pulled an upset. My search for a longshot has brought me to the three-year-old filly Johanna Walsh. The Irish Oaks winner has trouble with soft ground, but if conditions are to her liking, she will be dangerous.

CLASSIC – PURSE: $7 MILLION, 1 & 1/4 MILES – 3-YEAR-OLDS & UP
Top Pick: #7 Knightsbridge
2^nd choice: #3 Golden Tempo
Longshot: #5 Forever Young

We don’t fully know how good Knightsbridge is. I do believe, however, that he is the “speed of the speed” in here, definitely better than Napoleon Solo, and I’m thinking he might be better than Magnitude, as well. I can see Knightsbridge holding on in the stretch over a late-closing Golden Tempo, who has been training brilliantly at Keeneland (his home track). The brilliant Forever Young could get caught up in the pace on the inside, and he might fade late, as a result. Once again, it’s a very solid field for the Classic, and I had trouble separating them.

Does the cream always rise to the top? It did in baseball this year, as the two teams with the best records matched up in the World Series. But it is virtually impossible for things to turn out that way in 14 World Championship races. Favorites can have a bad trip or just a bad day. Longshots may have been sitting on the race of their lives. We do the research and hope to be good “detectives” and come up with horses that produce a nice score. Win or lose, however, the unpredictable nature of the Breeders’ Cup always produces great moments, and I can’t wait for the action to begin.

How to watch the 2026 Breeders’ Cup:

• Time: 1:00 PM - 6:00 PM ET on USA Network and Peacock

• 1:00 PM - 3:30 PM ET on USA Network and Peacock
• Peacock