GREEN BAY, Wis. – Everyone likes to say division games count for two. It’s true.

If the Green Bay Packers beat the Detroit Lions on Sunday at Ford Field, they will be 5-2 and the Lions will be 3-3. That’s a game-and-a-half gap in the NFC North standings, with Green Bay in second place and Detroit in last place.

If the Lions beat the Packers, Detroit will be 4-2 and Green Bay will be 4-3. That would be a half-game edge for Detroit while Green Bay would be in last place in the division.

That reality is shown in the latest playoff simulators.

What Playoff Simulators Say About Packers

According to The Athletic’s simulator, the Packers have a 53 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, with a 3 percent chance as the No. 1 seed, an 11 percent chance of winning the NFC North and a 42 percent chance of earning a wild card.

A win by the Packers would push their playoff chances up to 70 percent, including 5 percent as the No. 1 seed and 19 percent as the division champion. A loss by the Packers would shrink their playoff chances to 42 percent, with a 1 percent chance of earning the No. 1 seed and a 5 percent chance of winning the NFC North. 

Yes, one game would mean a 28-point difference in playoff probability, which is fairly typical of all the simulators.

At NFL.com, the Packers have a 54 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That would soar to 69 percent with a win over Detroit but would fall to 45 percent with a loss. That’s a 24-point difference.

Similarly, Detroit has a 70 percent playoff probability. That would move to 78 percent with a win but 56 percent with a loss. 

At Playoff Status, the Packers have a 61 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs, with an 11 percent chance as the division champion and a 3 percent chance as the No. 1 seed. 

With a win, those would improve to a 71 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, with a 15 percent chance as the division champions and a 4 percent chance as the No. 1 seed. With a loss, their playoff hopes would fall to 55 percent, including only a 7 percent chance of winning the North. So, that’s only a modest 16 point difference. 

At ESPN, the Packers enter the game with a 56 percent playoff probability. With a win, that would improve to 72 percent. With a loss, that would fall to 44 percent. That’s a 28-point difference.

At Stick to the Model, the Packers enter Sunday with a 49 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs. With a win, the Packers would have a 68 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs; with a loss, that would fall to 40 percent. That’s also a 28-point difference.

“You got to stay focused on what’s right in front of you, and that’s taking the right approach each and every day, which those guys have done an unbelievable job with,” coach Matt LaFleur said this week.

“The mentality is always to go 1-0. You can’t worry about your record. You can’t worry about anything else outside of what’s right in front of you. We know we have an NFC rival that is a really good football team and we got to play our best in order to go on the road and get a win.”

Games Are Played on the Field

That’s true. Led by their elite offense, the Lions are one of the best teams in the NFL. They are three-point favorites over the Packers, who have the seventh-shortest NFC playoff odds at FanDuel Sportsbook – so right on the fringe of making the seven-team field.

“Yeah, we talk about it I feel like every year, just how important these division matchup games are, how much they mean,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “I feel like since I’ve been the starter, the division’s been winning a lot of games and it’s been a very tight competition throughout the whole course of the division, through the whole season.

“It’s one of those things where you’ve got to take advantage, you’ve got to win these matchups when they present themselves. Obviously, the goal for us is to win the division and all that’s still out there in front of us. You’ve got to handle business against these teams and everybody in the division is very good.”

Of course, playoff projections are just that. They’re projections. There’s no level of artificial intelligence capable of accurately predicting how 53 players are going to perform on any given Sunday.

The Packers will have to play their best game of the season to beat Detroit. They’ll have to play well again to beat Carolina. And New England. And Minnesota. And the Rams. And the rest of the teams that will stand between them and January football.

“It’s a good environment over there,” Love said of Ford Field. “They definitely got a loud crowd and it’s a tough place to play, but we’ve had the right mindset in the past. These NFC North games, you got to go out there and win, and we’ve done some good things. I think it just comes down to us going out there and winning the matchups.”

The Packers suffered another big blow to their defense with Zaire Franklin out for Sunday at Detroit (and there will be a trickle-down effect). ⬇️https://t.co/6qAdtfNlTO

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 23, 2026