Virginia Tech didn’t play Saturday. By Monday morning, two of the five national bowl projections I track had moved the Hokies anyway.

A week ago, three of the five had Tech in the Gator Bowl. Now one does. Two moved the Hokies to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 28, both against Oregon State. The other three held, and nobody moved them up.

Four of the five boards still have Tech (6–2, 3–2 ACC) in the Pop-Tarts, Gator or Holiday, the ACC’s three best non-Playoff bowls. That’s the same count as last week. The bye didn’t cost the Hokies a tier. It cost them a seat.

Where the board sits

Brad Crawford of CBS Sports moved Tech from the Gator against South Carolina to the Holiday against Oregon State. He sent Wake Forest to the Pop-Tarts in Orlando and gave Jacksonville to Pitt, which beat Tech 35–33 on Oct. 2. He still expects the Hokies to win eight games, maybe nine, and to go to San Diego or Orlando.

Steven Lassan of Athlon Sports made the same move, from the Gator against Florida to the Holiday against Oregon State. He has Wake Forest in Orlando and SMU in Jacksonville.

ESPN’s Mark Schlabach held. Tech is still in the Gator against Tennessee on Dec. 30, with SMU in the Pop-Tarts and Louisville in the Holiday.

ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura held, too. He has Tech in the Sun Bowl in El Paso on Dec. 31 against Arizona, Pitt in Jacksonville, and Louisville in San Diego.

Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer still has the Hokies in the Pop-Tarts on Dec. 29 against Houston. He’s the only one of the five with Tech in Orlando.

The split comes down to Wake Forest. Schlabach, Bonagura and Fischer all put the Demon Deacons in the College Football Playoff as an at-large team alongside Miami. Crawford and Lassan leave them out. Those are the two boards that dropped Tech.

On both of those boards, Wake Forest jumped from San Diego to Orlando, and Tech dropped a seat to make room. If Wake is in the Playoff, it’s out of the bowl line, and everyone behind it moves up.

What the bye week actually told us

Tech went into the off week fourth in the ACC standings. It came out fifth without playing a snap.

Louisville beat Stanford and moved to 4–2 in the league and is now ahead of the Hokies in the standings.

Duke and Clemson both won and are now 3–2, level with the Hokies. Tech holds the head-to-head over Clemson and doesn’t play Duke.

Wake Forest beat Virginia 51–7 to reach 7–1 overall and 5–1 in the league, and it’s No. 14 in the AP poll. Miami survived at North Carolina to stay unbeaten and remain No. 1.

The result that mattered most for Tech came in Syracuse. Steve Angeli found tight end Noah Meyers for a 2-yard touchdown with 17 seconds left, and Syracuse beat No. 19 SMU 30–27. The Mustangs (6–2, 4–2 ACC) dropped out of the AP Top 25. On Friday night, they host Tech.

None of it touched the Hokies’ biggest problem going into the bye. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer was sacked 14 times in the three games before it, and Franklin said he hoped the week off would get some offensive linemen back. Friday is the first chance to see whether it did.

Record prediction: 8–4

It holds. Stanford on Nov. 14 and Virginia on Nov. 28, both at Lane Stadium, get Tech to eight. Neither looked like an upset threat Saturday. Stanford (4–5) lost at Louisville. Virginia (4–5) lost 51–7 at Wake Forest, its fourth loss in five games.

A ninth win would have to come at SMU on Friday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) or at No. 1 Miami on Nov. 21. SMU’s loss improved Tech’s numbers a little. ESPN’s FPI now gives the Hokies a 31.8% chance in Dallas, up from 28% before the bye.

My bowl projection: Holiday Bowl

Louisville is the reason 8–4 buys less now. The Cardinals are 4–2 in the league, with trips to Georgia Tech and North Carolina and a home game against Pitt left. An 8–4 Tech finishes 5–4, and Louisville would have to lose two of those three for the Hokies to catch it.

An 8–4 finish also means a loss in Dallas, which gives SMU the head-to-head. That puts Tech fourth in line, behind Wake Forest, SMU, and Louisville. If Wake goes to the Playoff, as three boards have it, Tech is third in line for the three best non-Playoff seats. 

Bowls don’t pick straight off the standings. Two bowls have Pitt at 3–3 in the league, in Jacksonville, and Schlabach still has Tech there. Jacksonville is also a much shorter trip from Blacksburg. But I’d rather project the standings than bet on a bowl skipping a team.

The pick: Holiday Bowl, Dec. 28, at Snapdragon Stadium. Ceiling at 9–3 is the Pop-Tarts. A win in Dallas would put Tech ahead of SMU outright, and SMU is the team two boards have in Orlando. Floor at 7–5 is the Sun or the Pinstripe.

The selection committee releases its first CFP rankings Tuesday night. Where it puts Wake Forest will tell Tech more about its bowl than anything else this week. Then it’s on the Hokies. They lost a seat without playing. Friday in Dallas, they can take one back.