What an exciting time for the PGA Tour as it returns to Austin, Texas, for the first time since 2023 for the newly minted Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, played at the Fazio Canyons Course at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa.

Carved through limestone canyons, this 7,451-yard, par-72 Tom Fazio design presents a little bit of everything. There is a mixture of massive, wide fairways where it takes an incredibly poor tee shot to find trouble, and classic parkland-style, tree-lined holes. The course also features significant elevation changes, long par 3s, short par 4s and ample opportunities for golfers to score.

The greens are relatively small, averaging 5,300 square feet, and feature plenty of undulation. Golfers will have to pick the correct landing spots and control their distances if they want to give themselves legitimate birdie opportunities.

With this being a new course in the PGA Tour rotation, there's no previous tournament data to fall back on. That said, with this Fazio design, much like his other courses, there's a strong need for excellent approach play, especially given the difficulty of the green complexes.

At typical Fazio courses, a misplaced approach shot isn't necessarily the difference between birdie and par. It's often the difference between birdie and bogey.

This week, I'm putting a very strong emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach. It's really dealer's choice whether you want to use a shorter sample of 12 to 24 rounds or expand that to 36 to 50.

With so many golfers in this field having played recently, including roughly 90% who have teed it up over the last two weeks, there's enough recent data that I don't think we need to stretch the sample to 50 rounds.

I'm sticking with the last 24.

Strokes Gained: Approach (last 24 rounds, via BetspertsGolf)

If I told you over the summer that Austin Smotherman would be teeing it up with a chance to win his third consecutive event, you'd probably look at me like I was crazy and have me committed to the nearest facility.

However, that's the reality we're living in, and when you think about it, it makes a ton of sense.

Smotherman pipes it off the tee, so driving prowess has never been an issue. Historically, he's also been an excellent approach player, and that part of his game has only gotten better recently. He hits a ton of fairways while averaging nearly 300 yards off the tee.

The biggest bugaboo throughout his career has been his putter.

He hasn't putted particularly well, and sure, he could go right back to being the Smotherman who gains a ton of strokes ball-striking only to give them right back on the greens.

Austin Smotherman wins 2026 Butterfield Bermuda Championship in playoff

But I think he's turned a corner.

Since the Biltmore Championship Asheville, Smotherman has gained strokes putting in three consecutive events. He didn't win in Asheville, but he followed that performance with victories at the Bank of Utah Championship and Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

As if his game wasn't already in a good enough place, let's add a little narrative to the equation. Smotherman is a Dallas resident, which adds a little fuel to the fire if you're looking to back someone with Texas ties.

I also think Fazio-designed golf courses fit Smotherman's game exceptionally well.

Think about his success at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, played at PGA National's Champion Course, another Fazio design. Or consider how well he played at the Truist Championship, where he didn't even have his best stuff with his irons and still finished T19.

Quail Hollow is another course I think suits Smotherman's game.

Maybe he's just a Fazio-design specialist.

Whatever the case, his combination of driving, approach play and newfound success on the greens makes him incredibly dangerous this week. And at +4100, I'm willing to find out whether he can become the first player since Dustin Johnson in 2017 to win three consecutive PGA Tour starts.

While approach play is going to be incredibly important, I also think the winning score could reach somewhere around 23 under.

That means golfers will have to take advantage of the shorter par 4s and scoreable par 5s. Simply hitting greens won't be enough. I want golfers who consistently convert those opportunities into birdies.

That has me looking at Birdie or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds.

Birdie or Better Gained (last 24 rounds, via BetspertsGolf)

I took Doug Ghim to win this golf tournament at +1900 before his price started dropping. I still think he's a really good look, but as that outright number gets shorter, my desire to bet him in that market starts to disappear.

However, there's another market I'm particularly keen on playing: a top-20 finish at -104.

I think that number is mispriced. I have Ghim closer to -125 or -130 to finish inside the top 20.

Why? Because all Ghim has done throughout this fall is put himself in contention.

Doug Ghim's 121-yard approach sets up birdie on No. 12 at Mexico Open

He finished T15 at the Rocket Classic, T19 at the Wyndham Championship, T17 at the Biltmore Championship in Asheville and runner-up at Bank of Utah. He followed that with a T17 at the Baycurrent Classic and a T6 at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he had a legitimate chance to win.

He's done just about everything right.

Ghim has been excellent off the tee, his approach play has been fantastic, and perhaps most importantly, he's actually making putts again.

For someone with Ghim's ball-striking ability, that's a welcome sight.

With the way he's playing right now, how do you not bet on him in some capacity?

I also think the best thing he could have done after his close call at VidantaWorld was to take a little time off. He comes back rested, hopefully rejuvenated, and still searching for his first victory in more than 140 PGA Tour starts.

If he puts himself in contention again, which he's done consistently throughout the fall, there's tremendous value in getting a top-20 finish at -104.

For resources related to problem gambling, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET.