This weekend's action in the Women's Super League is headlined by the first Manchester derby of the season at the Progress with Unity Stadium on Sunday.

The recent international break did little to slow City's momentum as, after last week's 3-2 victory over Brighton, Andree Jeglertz's defending champions retain a 100% record.

They are two points clear of Chelsea at the top of the WSL, and though United are down in fifth, they have some wind in their sails after recovering from a slow start to Eva Olid's first campaign at the helm.

But who will claim the bragging rights? Here, we consult Opta insights to provide a data-powered preview for the standout clash of matchday seven.

How the #BarclaysWSL table stands after match week 6  #LeagueStandings | #WTWKicks | @WTWcorporate https://t.co/u8AT3SdKW0

— Barclays Women's Super League (@BarclaysWSL) October 18, 2026

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer makes City favourites for Sunday's game, even with home advantage favouring United.

The champions are assigned a 47% chance of taking all three points, compared to United's 28.6% win probability. The remaining 24.4% of the supercomputer's pre-match simulations finished level.

City won 3-0 both home and away against United in the WSL last season, so they could become the first team to win three straight Manchester derbies in the competition.

And United have only won one of their six home games against City in the competition overall (D3 L2), by a 2-1 scoreline in May 2023 with Lucia Garcia netting a 91st-minute winner.

Furthermore, across all games played between WSL's 'big four' since the start of last season, United have earned the fewest points (four – D4 L4).

City, meanwhile, have taken the most points from such matches, winning 15 (W5 D2) versus United, Arsenal and Chelsea in that time.

United showing signs of progress

A few short weeks ago, keeping City quiet would certainly have looked to be beyond United, who opened the campaign with one point from their first three games, as part of a seven-match winless run dating back to last season (D3 L4).

But Olid's side have turned things around with three straight victories in the competition, while they also earned a thrilling 5-3 success against Liverpool in the League Cup on Wednesday.

 United in the Players Cup:   Sheffield United    Durham    Liverpool  We are cooking  https://t.co/NeEmW8VAmT

— Manchester United Women (@ManUtdWomen) October 21, 2026

Ella Toone, Andrea Medina and Julia Zigiotti all scored in the first 31 minutes of their most recent WSL game, a 3-1 triumph over rock bottom Charlton.

And though the strength of the opposition should be taken into account, United have certainly shown signs of adapting to Olid's methods.

Against Charlton, United completed a whopping 700 passes with a pass accuracy of 88.7%, also boasting a 76.2% possession share. 

Those were all record highs for them in a WSL game, while it was the most passes completed by any side in the competition since January 2025, when Arsenal tallied 707 against Crystal Palace.

Sunday's game should be an intriguing measure of how far United have come, as they go head-to-head with another team that looks to dominate possession whenever possible. 

And Olid is unlikely to change a winning formula, as only Tottenham (four) have made fewer alterations to their starting line-ups in the WSL this season than the Red Devils (five) – City have made the most, with 18.

United could also name the same starting XI for four consecutive league games for the first time since 2021-22, when they did so for the first five matches of the campaign. 

Deadly duo Shaw and Hemp in line for centuries

Although City came out on the right side of a five-goal thriller against Brighton last time out, that victory was far less straightforward than it might have been.

Khadija Shaw helped herself to a brace and Niamh Charles was also on target as City cruised into a three-goal advantage within 17 minutes, but they had to navigate a tricky second half after Olivia Garcia and Caitlin Hayes struck to get Brighton back within a goal.

Nevertheless, City held firm to take the points, and they could now win their first seven games of a WSL campaign for just the second time, having previously done so in 2017-18.

Both of Shaw's goals against Brighton were assisted by Lauren Hemp, and their partnership has been key to City's success in the early stages of 2026-27.

Indeed, Hemp has created 12 chances for Shaw so far this season, with three of those turning into assists. No other player in the league has created more than five opportunities for a single team-mate. 

A link up we'll never get tired of  https://t.co/UNCRtmEd9d

— Manchester City Women (@ManCityWomen) October 18, 2026

Hemp is also closing in on a WSL landmark, as she has 99 combined goal involvements for City (48 goals, 51 assists). 

She could become just the fourth player to bring up a century in the competition for a single club, after two of her current team-mates – Vivianne Miedema did so for her former side Arsenal, while Shaw has already reached that figure for City.

City have completed the most crosses from open play in the WSL this term (35), with Hemp responsible for almost half of them (17). And that could come into play this weekend, as 22% of the shots United have faced in the competition from open play this season have come via crosses (13/59), the highest rate of any side.

Like Hemp, Shaw is also in line for a century, as she could make her 100th WSL appearance on Sunday. With 90 goals in 99 games to date, she has already scored 12 more goals than any other player managed in their first 100 outings in the competition.

Additionally, after finding the net against Birmingham City, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton (seven goals in total; she did not score as a substitute versus Charlton), she could become the first player to score in her first six starts of a WSL season. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester United – Ella Toone

Toone's goal against Charlton last week took her level with Leah Galton at the top of United's all-time WSL scoring charts (35 goals), and she also has a strong record in Manchester derbies.

She has made the most appearances (12) and has also been involved in the joint-second-most goals (five – three goals, two assists) of any player in WSL Manchester derbies. 

Manchester City – Lauren Hemp

Hemp will view this game as the perfect occasion to bring up 100 WSL goal involvements for City, and so far this term, she has been the league's best creator.

Placed to perfection  https://t.co/XcCryoL9MB

— Manchester City Women (@ManCityWomen) October 18, 2026

No player in the league has registered more assists (four, all from open play), chances created (19) and expected assists (3.5 xA, also all from open play) than the England winger this campaign.