The highly anticipated Week 10 slate may not have had the level of fireworks that some expected going in, with a number of blowouts among the top-10 matchups between excellent Utah-BYU and Notre Dame–Miami games. It did, however, effectively reset the Heisman race as we know it.

In this space last week, I wrote about how Malachi Toney had a better argument for the award than Miami teammate Darian Mensah. Shortly thereafter, the Hurricanes announced the superstar wide receiver was expected to miss the remainder of the regular season with a high ankle sprain. Having Toney healthy for a potential College Football Playoff run is the correct top priority, but it is a shame to see him miss out on what could be a legitimate run at the nation’s top individual award.

Meanwhile, the injury to Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin could cost Jeremiah Smith the Heisman. Smith is still putting up solid numbers with Luke Fahey under center, but a sizable chunk of his production against Oregon came in garbage time, and the Buckeyes run the risk of losing so much that many voters turn their attention elsewhere.

Where do things stand entering the home stretch of the regular season? Let’s find out …

The Heisman favorites

1. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (6–3); Last week: No. 1—Still not ready to move him out of the top spot

Week 10: Lost to Oregon, 41–28—seven receptions, 133 yards, one TD
Season: 69 receptions, 1,200 yards, 14 TDs; two carries, seven yards

Smith’s frustrations boiled over on Saturday, snapping at the sideline, presumably about the lack of passes thrown his way as the Buckeyes struggled against the Ducks. That situation did rectify itself a bit; he caught four passes for 87 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter, though that production came with the game well in hand for Oregon.

Smith has still put up strong numbers without Sayin under center, but his production—and perhaps more importantly, the stakes with which it comes—has tailed downward with Fahey getting his sea legs under him. And there’s no guarantee that the Buckeyes avoid picking up a few more losses down the stretch this season, which could really imperil his Heisman chances. Oklahoma running back Steve Owens was the last player to win the Heisman on a team with at least four losses, back in 1969.

Had Mensah led Miami to a road win at Notre Dame, he’d almost certainly be No. 1. His Fighting Irish counterpart CJ Carr may ultimately get there, though I’m less enamored with his case than the oddsmakers. For now, I’m still most comfortable with Smith in the lead, though it is a tenuous ranking at best.

2. Darian Mensah, QB, Miami (8–1); LW: No. 3—Nearly took control of the race

Week 10: Lost to Notre Dame, 31–24—24 for 43, 269 yards, three TDs, one INT; 11 carries, 28 yards
Season: 212 for 276 (76.8%), 2,694 yards, 28 TDs, two INTs; 35 carries, 137 yards, two TDs

Without context, this was arguably Mensah’s weakest performance of the season—and yet, factoring in both Toney’s absence and the quick turnaround that the Hurricanes had to plan for their biggest game of the season without by far their best offensive weapon, Mensah’s gritty performance in South Bend shouldn’t be counted too heavily against him. 

Miami went down 24–3 after Notre Dame’s first drive of the third quarter. From that point on, Mensah and the offense outscored the Fighting Irish 21–7, with Mensah going 17 for 29 for 218 yards and all three of his touchdowns (as well as his pick), not counting the desperate lateral attempt on the game’s final play. It took a while, but The U’s secondary weapons—Elija Lofton, who very nearly hauled in a game-tying touchdown that was somewhat controversially ruled incomplete—and Cooper Barkate came alive as Mensah willed the team back into contention. 

If Smith’s candidacy falls apart, right now I prefer the full body of work from Mensah, who until Saturday was completing over 80% of his passes (in large part because of Toney’s dominance in the screen game) over Carr’s steady-if-unspectacular season before his own great showing on Saturday.

3. CJ Carr, QB, Notre Dame (8–1); LW: No. 6—Played himself into Tier 1

Week 10: Beat Miami, 31–24—29 for 40, 319 yards, three TDs; one carry, three yards
Season: 177 for 262 (67.6%), 2,168 yards, 21 TDs, one INT; 26 carries, 89 yards, three TDs

… And it was a great showing. Given the level of competition and the sheer importance of the game for the Fighting Irish, who would have been all but eliminated from CFP consideration with a loss, Saturday’s game was probably the best of Carr’s career. If he strings together a few more big games, especially on Nov. 21 against Kevin Jennings and a good SMU squad, he has a real chance of launching to the top of the list here. 

So far, however, he’s had a very good season, but not quite a great one. Carr ranks 25th nationally in completion percentage and passing yards and is 32nd with 8.3 yards per attempt on the season. His 21 touchdowns (ninth nationally) to just one interception is outstanding, but overall, he hasn’t separated himself so clearly from the pack of elite quarterbacks.

This is shaping up to be a weird race down the stretch without a clear favorite barring a supernova-type finish from Smith, and that Notre Dame brand carries significant weight—especially as it’s been nearly 40 years since Tim Brown won the program’s last Heisman.

Hanging around

4. Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State (6–3); LW: No. 7—The statistical dynamo

Week 10: Beat Kansas State, 66–28—22 for 28, 313 yards, four TDs, one INT; three carries, 11 yards, one TD
Season: 206 for 309 (66.7%), 2,962 yards, 29 TDs, eight INTs; 36 carries, 177 yards, three TDs

As outlined with Smith above, three losses is about the historic limit for a Heisman winner. Now, that isn’t a hard and fast rule, but as long as Mensah and Carr continue to win at a serious clip, it is tough to see a lane for Mestemaker. But if Oklahoma State runs the table and Mestemaker continues to dice up every defense in his path? There’s a path there. The Pokes have averaged over 57 points in their last three games, and the upcoming contest against Big 12 power Texas Tech could be a huge feather in Mestemaker’s cap.

5. Devon Dampier, QB, Utah (9–0); LW: Unranked—Impossible to ignore

Week 10: Beat BYU, 28–20—14 for 26, 177 yards, two TDs; 20 carries, 89 yards, two TDs
Season: 172 for 253 (68%), 2,053 yards, 20 TDs, seven INTs; 103 carries, 482 yards, seven TDs

Dampier has floated under the radar compared other quarterbacks who have cycled through these rankings, but at a certain point, you can’t ignore the wins and the clear impact he’s making on one of the nation’s best teams. Dampier isn’t as polished a passer as Mensah or Carr, but he’s completing 68% of his throws and has been very efficient at 8.1 yards per attempt. He’s also 19th among quarterbacks in rushing yardage this season, and hasn’t had to dial up that part of his game as much, two years after he ran for 1,166 yards and 19 touchdowns at New Mexico. Assuming Utah remains in the heat of the CFP race, Dampier will absolutely receive his share of Heisman votes, and if things get wonky above him, the star quarterback for an undefeated team is never a bad bet for this award.

6. Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama (6–2); LW: No. 8—Just can’t quit him yet

Week 10: Beat LSU, 31–13—17 for 24, 206 yards, three TDs; eight carries, 25 yards
Season: 165 for 245 (67.3%), 2,263 yards, 18 TDs, five INTs; 74 carries, 276 yards, five TDs

What a roller coaster it has been for the young quarterback this year. He struggled mightily in back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee before a solid game against a pretty bad Texas A&M team. And then, after the Crimson Tide bye, Russell and his offense absolutely torched a talented and very expensive LSU defense, finishing the game on a 21–0 run. Alabama’s weak schedule to end the season is good for its CFP chances, but not as good for Russell to score Heisman style points down the stretch. He should get some votes, though, and be one of the favorites entering 2027. If he takes a leap after his first year as starter, watch out.

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