Florida’s inaugural Open Division puts eight teams in the same championship race, but the order and location of their games could shape who reaches the final.

St. Thomas Aquinas and Columbus lead opposite pools. Chaminade-Madonna and West Boca Raton open with consecutive home games, while Lakeland must visit two higher seeds before getting its first home opportunity.

Pool play runs Nov. 13, Nov. 20 and Nov. 27. The top two teams in each group advance to the Dec. 5 semifinals at The Range at H.G. Morse Stadium in Middleton. The Pool A winner faces the Pool B runner-up, and the Pool B winner meets the Pool A runner-up. The championship is scheduled for Dec. 12 at South Dade Kia Field at Pitbull Stadium in Miami.

A team can recover from a pool loss, although a 2–1 finish could still produce a three-way tie for two semifinal spots. FHSAA tiebreakers begin with head-to-head results among the tied teams, followed by points allowed among those teams, point differential among those teams, and overall point differential.

The paths below are an analysis of the draw, weighing the confirmed schedule, seeding, and relevant regular-season results.

No. 1 St. Thomas Aquinas: Use the Home Games to Control Pool A

The Raiders’ route begins with Lakeland at home, continues at Venice, and ends with Chaminade-Madonna visiting Fort Lauderdale. Aquinas already owns regular-season victories over Chaminade (21–20) and Columbus (31–24).

The Venice trip is the only road assignment standing between the Raiders and a potential pool sweep. Beating Lakeland first would keep Aquinas from needing consecutive wins against Venice and Chaminade just to reach two victories.

The best championship route is to finish first in Pool A and draw the Pool B runner-up. If Columbus wins Pool B, that would keep the Explorers on the opposite side of the semifinals. Under that scenario, a rematch of Aquinas’ regular-season win would come with the championship at stake.

No. 2 Columbus: Win Pool B and Make Aquinas Wait

Columbus opens against Miami Central, travels to Raines, and closes at home against West Boca Raton. The Explorers’ 28–3 regular-season win over Central gives them a favorable starting point, although the rematch will count independently in the pool standings.

The Jacksonville trip is the schedule’s biggest obstacle to a sweep. Handling Central and Raines would bring Columbus into its home finale with two wins and an opportunity to settle first place against West Boca.

Winning Pool B offers the best chance to avoid Aquinas in the semifinals, provided the Raiders win Pool A. Columbus would instead face Chaminade, Lakeland or Venice in that scenario. If Aquinas finishes second, however, a Pool B title would bring the Raiders into Columbus’ semifinal.

No. 3 West Boca Raton: Build the Route at Home

West Boca hosts Raines and Miami Central before visiting Columbus. Taking advantage of those first two games is the clearest way to keep its championship push from depending on a win in Miami.

The Bulls allowed 46 points across 10 regular-season games, including shutouts of Monarch and Atlantic to finish the schedule. Carrying that defensive form into pool play would give West Boca a foundation against two teams competing directly for a semifinal place.

If West Boca and Columbus both start 2–0, both would qualify for the semifinals, and their Nov. 27 meeting would determine the pool winner. Winning that finale would place West Boca opposite the Pool A runner-up. If Aquinas wins Pool A, that is the route that postpones a possible Raiders matchup until the championship.

No. 4 Chaminade-Madonna: Make the Aquinas Rematch a Battle for First

Chaminade gets Venice and Lakeland at home before traveling to Aquinas. The Lions’ most favorable route starts by winning those first two games, giving them leverage before revisiting their one-point regular-season loss to the Raiders.

There is a particularly helpful outside scenario: Aquinas also beats Lakeland and Venice. With both teams then 2–0 and the other two teams 0–2, Chaminade and Aquinas would have secured the pool’s semifinal berths before meeting.

The finale would determine first place, with the winner drawing the Pool B runner-up. That gives Chaminade a chance to improve its semifinal matchup without needing the Aquinas game simply to stay alive. The best version of the route is a home sweep followed by reversing the 21–20 result in Fort Lauderdale.

No. 5 Lakeland: Get Through the Road Trips With a Route Still Open

Lakeland starts at Aquinas, visits Chaminade, and finishes at home against Venice. The first two weeks make this one of the field’s more demanding schedules.

The most workable fallback is to beat Chaminade and Venice. If Aquinas sweeps Pool A, those two wins would make Lakeland the outright runner-up, avoiding a tiebreaker. Reversing the 32–25 double-overtime loss to Venice would then be the final step toward the semifinals.

The result that could improve Lakeland’s championship route most is an opening win at Aquinas. It would give the Dreadnaughts a head-to-head advantage over the top seed and a chance to pursue first place, although later results could still create a three-way tie. Finishing first would draw the Pool B runner-up; finishing second means facing its winner.

No. 6 Miami Central: Turn One Road Win Into a Semifinal Opportunity

Central visits Columbus and West Boca before hosting Raines. After losing the regular-season Columbus meeting 28–3, the Rockets face an immediate opportunity to change how their postseason looks.

Beating West Boca and Raines offers a clear recovery route if Central drops the opener. If Columbus wins all three pool games, Central would finish alone in second at 2–1.

That would earn a semifinal against the Pool A winner, potentially Aquinas. Central’s more favorable championship route therefore begins with reversing the Columbus result and pursuing first place in Pool B. An opening win would give the Rockets an advantage over the highest seed in their group, but they would still need to finish the job against West Boca and Raines rather than rely on that result alone.

No. 7 Raines: Use the Columbus Home Game to Change the Draw

Raines opens at West Boca, hosts Columbus, and finishes at Miami Central. The unbeaten Vikings already have a 20–17 win over Venice, giving them a regular-season result against another member of the Open field.

Winning at West Boca would immediately put pressure on a higher seed. The following home game against Columbus is Raines’ biggest opportunity to take control of Pool B before returning to South Florida for the finale.

A sweep would secure first place and a semifinal against the Pool A runner-up. If Aquinas wins its group, that would keep the Raiders out of Raines’ semifinal. There is also a clear fallback: beat West Boca and Central while Columbus sweeps. That would put Raines alone in second, with a semifinal against the Pool A winner.

No. 8 Venice: Repeat the Lakeland Result and Find a Second Win

Venice travels to Chaminade, hosts Aquinas, and returns to Lakeland. Its 32–25 double-overtime victory at Lakeland provides evidence that the final road assignment is within reach, even with the Dreadnaughts seeking a different outcome.

The clearest route to the semifinals is to beat Chaminade and repeat the Lakeland win while Aquinas sweeps the group. That combination would leave Venice alone in second at 2–1, sending the Indians to a semifinal against the Pool B winner.

The home game against Aquinas offers the greatest opportunity to improve that route. A Venice sweep would secure Pool A and a semifinal against the Pool B runner-up. For the eighth seed, winning the opener would preserve both possibilities before the top seed arrives.