Sunderland have made a poor start to the Premier League season and remain in the relegation zone after 10 games. Last weekend’s 1-0 win over Chelsea was a welcome boost, and Regis Le Bris will hope it can be the start of a turnaround.

However, the Black Cats still have plenty of work to do after the November international break. Their league position does not tell the whole story, though, with the underlying numbers suggesting they have been unfortunate so far.

Where Sunderland should be in the Premier League table according to xG

Sunderland’s position in the expected goals table paints a much more encouraging picture than their actual league standing. The Black Cats rank seventh, just below Liverpool and ahead of Tottenham, Everton, Chelsea and several other established Premier League sides.

Sunderland have collected just eight points from their opening 10 matches, despite performances suggesting they should have 15. That seven-point gap is the biggest discrepancy between expected and actual points of any team in the division.

The Black Cats have struggled to find the net, scoring just eight goals compared to an expected total of 15.6. Meanwhile, their defensive numbers are much closer to expectations, with 17 goals conceded against an expected figure of 16.4. However, their actual goal difference of -9 is considerably worse than the expected figure of -0.8.

There is reason to believe Sunderland could improve, particularly if they become more clinical in front of goal, with centre-forward Brian Brobbey among those who need to contribute more. However, there is no guarantee their results will eventually match their underlying performances.

Regis Le Bris’ side significantly outperformed their expected numbers during their remarkable seventh-place finish last season. They collected 54 points despite an expected total of just 42, showing they got more out of games than they deserved.

Perhaps Sunderland are now experiencing the opposite, and some regression towards the middle of the table would be only fair. Their underlying numbers offer encouragement, but the Wearside club still need to turn those performances into points.