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Make no mistake: All 30 MLB teams would love to sign Tarik Skubal, arguably the best pitcher on the planet. But with the two-time Cy Young award winner likely to command well over $300 million at a starting point, only a select few have a realistic shot at doing so.
With that being said, not every big-market team that will be linked to Skubal needs to sign him. Every team would be better with him, obviously, but others would either be fine without him or have more pressing needs to address. Given that, let's rank potential Skubal suitors in order of how desperate they should be to sign him.
The need to do something huge is abundantly clear after yet another early postseason exit, but is that something really signing Skubal? Don't get me wrong: adding Skubal to a rotation already consisting of the likes of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo would be absurd. Yet I'd still hesitate when it comes to picking the Philadelphia Phillies to go on a prolonged postseason run because of their lineup.
That lineup is what fails them every October, and it did so again this season after they managed to score just nine runs in three postseason games. Their starting pitching is always good enough, but what good is that if their bats can't score more than three runs a game and if their bullpen ahead of Jhoan Duran is completely unreliable? The Phillies need to make a big move, but I'm not sure this one is the right one.
Even with a possible salary cap, the Los Angeles Dodgers are likely favorites to re-sign Skubal given their clear willingness to spend money and their successful track record when it comes to signing elite free agents. Just because they can and probably will sign him doesn't mean they need him, though.
Even without Skubal, how many postseason rotations are better than one that includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow? Not many, if any. There are some injury concerns there, but the Dodgers have depth. Even beyond that, this team has won two World Series in the last three years. Do they need to go all out for another one when they already have so many bad contracts on their books? The Dodgers will want him back, but they don't need him in a way many other teams do.
The New York Yankees are in a similar spot to the Phillies. Their pitching was quite good in the ALDS, as they held the eventual AL champion Rays to just 10 runs in three games, yet they were swept because they only scored five runs on 12 hits in those contests. Aaron Judge's injury hurt, but even with a healthy Judge, this lineup just wasn't good enough, and it hasn't been consistently when it matters most.
Skubal would obviously help their rotation, but with Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and a ton of depth in the fold, it's not like the Yankees need the pitching help. They should be more desperate than the Phillies because I think they're closer to winning than Philadelphia, but what New York really needs is to bolster their lineup in a big way.
What do you know, we've arrived at yet another team that would love to have Skubal but might not need him in the same way others do. The Toronto Blue Jays could really use a big offseason after a wildly disappointing 79-83 campaign, but if we're looking at what went wrong, pitching was not it. Even with their injuries, the Jays ranked ninth in staff ERA, and had they gotten full seasons out of guys like Jose Soriano (acquired midseason via trade), Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber, they could've been even better.
They missed the playoffs because they scored the fewest runs in the Majors, and as good as Skubal is, he wouldn't help them fix that. The Jays should be more desperate than teams like the Yankees and the Phillies because they just missed the playoffs, and their rotation admittedly isn't as formidable as those teams, but the lineup needs to be prioritized.
Do I believe that the Detroit Tigers are realistic Skubal suitors? As good a story as it'd be, not really. They never made a real effort to extend him, and I don't see them outbidding big-market clubs for his services. They've been mentioned enough in rumors for me to include them, though, and when it comes to need, there's an obvious fit there.
The Tigers' lineup, led by young guns like Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark and Riley Greene, has a ton of upside, even if it was maddeningly inconsistent this past season. The pitching has some talented arms as well, but who is the ace? Is Framber Valdez really that guy at this point? Has Troy Melton done enough? With Skubal, the Tigers might be AL Central favorites. Without him, making the playoffs will be a challenge.
Now we're cooking. The New York Mets have needed an ace really since Jacob deGrom was in town. They hoped Freddy Peralta would fill that void, at least for one year, but we know how that experiment went. It's against how David Stearns operates to give Skubal the massive long-term deal he's going to merit, but when it comes to need, how can you argue against the Mets being at or near the top of the list?
As constructed, this lineup should be pretty good when healthy, but the rotation is a weakness. There's some clear upside by way of Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and even Zac Thornton, but New York lacks any sort of established frontline starter. Who would be better to fill that void than a two-time Cy Young award winner who has pitched well in the postseason — and, by the way, just proved he can pitch on a big-market team?
I still think the Chicago Cubs need him more. There's a reason why reports say they "badly" want Skubal. Do I think the Cubs will bid what they need to in order to get Skubal to sign the dotted line? Probably not. But the rotation was an issue this past season, and it's in much worse shape right now with so many starters hitting free agency.
Rotation Order |
Pitcher |
|---|---|
SP1 |
Justin Steele |
SP2 |
Ben Brown |
SP3 |
Edward Cabrera |
SP4 |
Javier Assad |
SP5 |
Braxton Garrett |
This rotation has some upside when healthy, but durability is a major concern, as is the depth of the staff. This team needs a No. 1 starter to turn to every fifth day in the worst way, and after the Brewers just won the World Series, it's time for the Cubs to make a statement. There wouldn't be a bigger statement than signing Skubal, catapulting them into contention.