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Everything in life always comes in a six-pack or a four-pack — beers, yogurt, sticks of butter, value packs of Pokemon cards. Why do we allow the numbers six and four to dominate our lives like this?
On this NFL Sunday morning, I'm here to resist with a three-pack of bold predictions as we careen violently toward kickoff. The streets are saying I just didn't have time to make a six-pack, to which I will tell the streets to shut up because they're literally just made of concrete while I am a luminous being, not this crude matter. The NFC North will feature heavily, and I have more words for Bo Nix; should be a three-packtacular time!
In what would immediately vault them to the George Washington slot on the "Least Convincing 6-0 Teams Ever" Mt. Rushmore, the Vikings are somehow walking up to the club in Week 7 a whole seven-point favorite coming off their bye. Their offense looks horrendous, their defense is going to blitz you every time and that's ... just how the cookie crumbles its way to a 5-0 record. This is the team that beat the Chicago Bears 9-3 in one of the snoozefests of our generation.
But hey, this is bold predictions, not "pick a touchdown favorite to win" predictions, and the ultimate zag here would be to say that the Colts, who have launched an exploratory committee on trading their entire team, shock everyone by inverting the vibes completely. There isn't a great argument for this to happen, otherwise it wouldn't be bold, but there is an argument.
The Vikings offense really is terrible; they are 27th in EPA per play ahead of absolute titans like the ... Tennessee Titans, the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. They have had real difficulty moving the ball with Kyler Murray under center, and have gimmicked their way to wins with timely turnovers and crazy performance from an aggressive defense. I'm not saying that doesn't work (it clearly works), but there's no way it can work this consistently.
The Colts need to stabilize behind their strengths: running the football and managing an efficient offensive attack. In Week 6 against the Titans, it felt like they held some emergency war council meeting at halftime where they all pitched their best ideas on how to best lose the game. If the team can just play to its own strengths rather than allow their weaknesses to consume them, they should have a chance.
This is what we call putting the "bold" and "prediction" in bold prediction, because I could have just said something like "Bo Nix will play garbage football again and we'll all hop on our podcasts and blogs and wonder what he does," but let's get real cynical. What if the Broncos and Sean Payton lose their patience completely?
Bo Nix is not a good quarterback. I don't know if he's bad, but by every metric imaginable and by the evidence of my own two eyeballs he's been remarkably ineffective this year. He can't really throw over the middle and he can't really throw deep down the sideline, so he basically just runs a college offense with a ton of handoffs, screen passes and dumpoffs with a hysterically low average depth of target.
I don't think Jarrett Stidham is any better, nor am I one of those clowns constantly canvassing for unproven backups to start with no evidence that they'll be good. What I know is that the Broncos coaching staff agrees with my assessment of Bo Nix — they trust him with nothing, refuse to call any downfield shots and just try to protect, protect, protect for as long as they can while they win the game with runs, field goals and defense. If they somehow fall down big to Arizona, though? Maybe we see some emergency quarterback switch, if for no other reason than to save face with the rest of the team.
The Lions defense, so far this year, has been USDA-certified garbage. They have yet to hold a team under 20 points, get cleaved by every elite pass-catcher they encounter and had one of the most unprofessional performances I ever did see on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. But I, in my infinite wisdom, have decided (for some reason) that this all will get better, and it will get better right now.
This is for three reasons: First, the Lions are getting Brian Branch back for the first time all year, a keystone defensive player and the kind of guy they've been missing all season. Second, they're at home, and home field still really matters in football for defensive performance — the only sport where it still really means anything. Third and finally is simple mathematical regression.
No defense is in reality this unprofessional, and it's likely if not guaranteed that some of the early-season miscommunications that made the Lions defense so terrible have been ironed out. That's probably factored into the betting line, which is fascinating: Detroit is favored by 3.5 points. They're at home, and their offense is as good as it gets, but Vegas does not buy the Packers recent hot streak at all. Give me the Lions.