Enzo Maresca has made Premier League history with seven wins from seven, but do the numbers behind Manchester City's perfect start justify making them favourites ahead of reigning champions Arsenal?

Saturday's 3-2 win over Ipswich Town made him the first manager in Premier League history to win his opening seven league games in charge of a club.

The result has left Manchester City six points clear of reigning champions Arsenal, who have played a game fewer and travel to Nottingham Forest on Sunday.

On the table alone, the answer looks simple.

Once the performances, the injury list and a very large cloud hanging over the Etihad are added to the mix, it is not.

2026-27 Premier League title race: The case for Man City

The raw numbers are hard to argue with.

City have scored 19 goals and conceded seven in their seven league matches, a goal difference of +12, compared with Arsenal's +5 from six games.

Erling Haaland scored twice against Ipswich to take his tally for the season to 12 in all competitions.

With his second goal, he became the fastest player in Premier League history to reach 100 non-penalty goals, needing just 139 appearances to beat Alan Shearer's previous mark of 150.

City have also won in the places that matter.

They beat Manchester United 1-0 at Old Trafford despite playing for more than an hour with 10 men following Phil Foden's 23rd-minute red card, then won 3-0 at Anfield on October 11 in their first game since the independent commission's verdict on their finances, also, against 10-men with Ryan Gravenberch dismissed in the 62nd minute.

Maresca has settled quickly, too.

Since a 3-0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal in Cardiff in August, City have won all seven of their Premier League games, a Carabao Cup tie against Norwich City and their opening Champions League match at Porto, supported by a record £458m summer outlay on new players that was partly offset by £304m in player sales.

After the Ipswich game, Maresca said that it is "a matter of winning games in this business."

Arsenal's own stumble has helped City's cause.

A 3-0 defeat at Brighton on September 19 was their heaviest league loss as defending champions since a 3-0 defeat at Everton in October 1989, and it ended a run of nine straight Premier League wins that stretched back to last season.

2026-27 Premier League title race: Why the streak flatters City

Perfect results do not always mean perfect performances.

Four of City's seven league wins have come by a single goal, and they have conceded in four of their seven matches.

Brian Brobbey's hat-trick dragged Sunderland level twice before City won 5-3 on September 20.

On Saturday, Daizen Maeda equalised for Ipswich within three minutes of Foden's opener, before Zian Flemming's penalty set up a nervy finish at 3-2.

Then came Paris Saint-Germain.

City's 4-2 Champions League defeat to the holders on Wednesday was their first loss since the Community Shield and ended a run of eight successive wins under Maresca, across the Premier League, the Carabao Cup and the Champions League.

PSG led 3-0 at half time, through Desire Doue, Ousmane Dembele and Vitinha, and Haaland's two second-half goals were not enough to complete the comeback.

It was City's first time trailing by three goals at half time in a home match since January 2012.

Few domestic opponents will have PSG's quality, but the first-half display showed how exposed City can be.

There are fitness questions, too.

Haaland limped off at full time following a late challenge, with Maresca saying the striker had told him he was fine.

The City manager named Matheus Nunes, Mateo Kovacic, Nico O'Reilly and Antoine Semenyo as other players who finished the game with problems, and said that Semenyo is the one City are waiting on.

Maresca had already warned before the game that Haaland and other key players will need a rest at some point, and City host AEK Athens in the Champions League on Tuesday.

2026-27 Premier League title race: The cloud over the Etihad

There is also the off-the-pitch situation.

On September 29, an independent commission found City guilty of all charges relating to serious breaches of the Premier League's financial rules between 2009-10 and 2017-18, as well as the majority of the charges relating to a failure to cooperate with the league's investigation.

City deny wrongdoing and lodged an appeal on October 1.

No sanction has been imposed yet.

Under league rules, any punishment could range from a fine to a points deduction or even expulsion, and it will be decided at a separate hearing that has not been scheduled.

Several Premier League clubs are understood to want that sanctions process concluded this season, while the chair of the independent regulator has said he expects City's appeal itself to be heard by the middle or end of January.

For anyone judging City's title chances, that is an unknown which sits over every other argument.

2026-27 Premier League title race: Arsenal remain the benchmark

None of this means Arsenal should be written off.

Mikel Arteta's side ended a 22-year wait for the title last season, clinching it with a game to spare after City were held at Bournemouth.

They then beat Maresca's side 3-0 in the Community Shield in Cardiff in August.

This season they have won five of their six league games, taking 15 points, with 10 goals scored and five conceded.

Bruno Guimaraes came off the bench to score the winner in the 70th minute of a 2-1 comeback against Leeds United on October 10, and Arsenal then beat Lille 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday.

They visit Nottingham Forest at 4.30pm on Sunday, and a win would cut City's lead to three points with the number of games played level.

The two sides also meet twice in the league.

Arsenal host City on November 28, with the return fixture at the Etihad scheduled for January 30, so the title race will not be settled by early-season form alone.

2026-27 Premier League title race: City are marginal favourites, with caveats

So, are City now favourites?

On the table, yes.

Six points, a goal difference of +12 and a striker with 12 goals already make them the side to catch, and Arsenal's Brighton defeat has handed Maresca early breathing space.

But it is a narrow call.

City's wins have been tighter than their record suggests, the PSG defeat showed how exposed they can be against elite opposition, their reliance on Haaland is considerable, and the outcome of the financial case could yet change the picture.

Arsenal, meanwhile, are champions, have conceded fewer goals per game, and still have a game in hand.

Seven from seven makes City favourites for now.

The two meetings between the sides will tell us whether they deserve to stay that way.