We can finally move onto NFL Week 10 now that the trade deadline is behind us — but that doesn't mean we can forget about what just happened at the trade deadline either. Kirk Cousins returning to the Minnesota Vikings is an inflection point in the NFC North, just as much so as the Chicago Bears adding Jeffery Simmons. We also have the Jaguars going all-in, teams like the Colts and Eagles selling hard, and more teams in-between. That all has to be factored into our NFL picks this week.

It's a weird slate on the docket this week, starting with Thursday Night Football, going into a game in Munich and finishing with one of the worst Monday Night Football matchups for the year with the Chargers and Ravens facing off. But after a solid winning week, we hope for more of the same as we make our NFL Week 10 picks with predictions straight-up and against the spread for every game.

NFL Week 10 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS:

2026 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 83-56 (Last week 12-4) | ATS Record: 62-73-3 (Last week 8-7)

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Toughest NFL Week 10 prediction to make

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

The top of the AFC North is one of the toughest divisions to figure out. Baltimore dropping out of the mix has been an unexpected curveball, but even more so that the Pittsburgh Steelers have seemingly taken up their mantle. But now Aaron Rodgers and Co. get to go on the road and try to prove they're worth their salt in a matchup with the high-octane Cincinnati Bengals. This feels like a real defensive strength versus offensive strength battle.

At the same time, though, I still don't trust the Bengals defense. While Rodgers and the passing game for Pittsburgh have been somewhat pedestrian, Jaylen Warren has been a revelation and Cincinnati might not have many answers. When we get down to it, though, I'm still taking Burrow and the Bengals. The explosiveness they've displayed of late with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins playing out of their minds will be the trump card, especially at home, and provide a level of explosive plays and offensive output that the Steelers won't be able to keep up with, even with Warren's success.

Easiest NFL Week 10 pick on the board

Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) at Tennessee Titans

Even before the trade deadline, I probably would've been inclined to take Jacksonville covering 10.5 points, even on the road against a divisional opponent in Tennessee. The Titans have looked so out of sorts beyond the close loss to Cincinnati this season and, while they didn't participate in a trade deadline fire sale, this roster still isn't remotely in a place where they're going to be able to compete with the best teams in the NFL. The Jags were that before they added Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis before Tuesday's deadline.

More importantly, though, the Jaguars have been a total wrecking vastly inferior opponents. They won by 24 against the Browns in Week 1 but 29 against the then-struggling Patriots in Week 3, by 35 against the Colts in Week 8 and then by 23 on the road against Baltimore last week. Jacksonville ranks top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency by EPA per play this season and the Titans simply are no match for this one. Not only will the Jags cover, I'd bet that we don't see Trevor Lawrence play in the fourth quarter again in this game.

The pick that probably has you scratching your head

Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers

There's been growing buzz with the Packers based on what they've done lately, which has no doubt looked impressive. They're 6-1 in their last seven games after a 1-2 start to the season — including losing to the Vikings in Week 1, it should be noted — and Jordan Love has this deep passing offense operating at an absurd level. However, it feels worth noting that this stretch included playing the Bears without Caleb Williams, the bipolar Cowboys, a loss to the Lions, a win over the defensively struggling Panthers, and blowing out a Patriots team that's struggled against good competition.

Let's not forget how worried Brian Flores' defense made everyone about the Packers in Week 1, though. While Green Bay and Love have improved since then, without question, the fact of the matter is that Minnesota still has a huge edge when it comes to what they're capable of defensively. Most importantly, though, I'm bullish on the boost Kirk Cousins is about to give this offense and the Packers might be a bit gobsmacked by the newfound potency the Vikings find on that side of the ball.

This feels like the perfect statement game for the Vikings to make with Cousins in the fold and I think they not only cover, but they silence the Lambeau crowd with an upset victory.