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FPI Predicts Outcome For Georgia Tech's Week Nine Matchup vs Pittsburgh

How does ESPN analytics see the matchup turning out on Saturday?

Oct 24, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Pre game scenes before the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets against the Boston College Eagles at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week 9 is here, and Georgia Tech is trying to get back on track for its road to Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets fell last week to Boston College at home and are desperately looking for answers. Georgia Tech is a big underdog coming into this matchup vs. the Panthers. ESPN's FPI gives the Yellow Jackets a 15.9% chance to come out with a win on Saturday. Georgia Tech remains a major road underdog against Pittsburgh on Saturday. 

Will the defense be fixed against Pittsburgh? 

It is difficult to fix everything in one fell swoop, especially when struggles have been alarming for the Yellow Jackets. One of the biggest things they have struggled with is alignment and getting everybody where they need to be. You can attribute it to youth in the secondary, coaching, young players getting more reps, and even not simplifying the defense. Whatever it is, the struggles are clear, and it has been a problem this season. It doesn’t get any easier, especially with Pittsburgh, which has the No.12 pass offense in the country.

They will be led by Holden Geriner, who has stepped in for the Panthers since the injury to its star quarterback. Damon Ferguson Jr. has also been solid on the ground this year for the Panthers. The Panthers have a balanced attack, which means Georgia Tech will have its work cut out for them. They desperately need to force some turnovers and sacks in this one, or it could be a long day, and most importantly, they need to be calm and know where they are supposed to go. 

“There was not one player on defense that looked calm, set, and ready to play ball. There was a panic. There was a sense of panic from the second and third levels, you know, where to go, how to align, what to do. And that's an alarming thing when you see that early in the game. So, again, without getting into all the, you know, X's and O's part, but talk about common sense. Common sense tells you to. If you're not doing a bunch of things well, simplify it down and do your best to do one thing well, right,” said Key. 

Is the projection right? 

I would say the projection is a little bit out of left field. Of course, the Yellow Jackets have struggled this season, but Pittsburgh has struggled too and lost three straight games. The offense has been anemic since their star quarterback Mason Heintschel went down. Yes, Pittsburgh has a top-ranked pass offense, but with the Panthers' defensive struggles, the Yellow Jackets should be able to take full advantage. They have the playmakers to do it and can take advantage of the defense. They must take advantage and hit first. If the Yellow Jackets' offense gets rolling, they will have a good chance to pull off an upset, contrary to the prediction. 

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