Fantasy football is inundated with stats and charts (guilty!), but the more context the film provides, the more reliable the data gets. That's why we have a 2.5-hour show called Stats vs. Film every Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET. That show is live — join us in the chat!

This (experimental) weekly column will look at some of the biggest storylines I picked up by grinding the film.

1. The Cowboys were out-coached

There are two unchangeable flaws with the Cowboys offense, dating back to 2025. 

1. Targets to RBs/FBs/TEs are averaging 6.8 yards per reception (32nd) and +0.07 EPA per target (27th). Jake Ferguson and Javonte Williams offer next to nothing after the catch on top of some ill-timed drops. They don't have receiving depth at these positions, so any throw that isn't to a WR is essentially DOA. 

2. RB carries are reaching 10+ yards 9.8% of the time (28th). Williams is a trusted short-yardage option with a top-five success rate on runs, but it's a rarity to get any explosives on the ground. That also includes Dak Prescott as a scrambler.

With those two issues, Prescott and the WR trio has to be nearly perfect to sustain a top-five offense. They've done that more times than not since the George Pickens trade, but they're coming off their second- and fifth-worst EPA per play outings since 2025. That's shocking with star LG Tyler Smith returning for those games, so what's up?

The Cowboys were out-coached in back-to-back games. New Packers DC Jonathan Gannon had the pass game in a pretzel by breaking protection rules and disguising coverages. Take a look at this screenshot right before the snap versus where these players are rotating to, dropping to, and blitzing from: 

Prescott had six plays ending in an interception or throw away, the most in a game since 2025. The second worst outing was against the Vikings last year, and this Packers' defense is doing similar things to Vikings DC Brian Flores, who is creating pre-snap chaos at the highest level. The Cowboys didn't have a plan to make the Packers pay by targeting the intermediate and deep parts of the field with their WRs, and the Packers elite group of safeties kept making plays within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage.

The red zone interception was a post-snap rotation where Evan Williams bailed from a blitz look to drop into a quarters deep safety role that he read out the coverage on the backside of the play. Not too much Prescott can do on that, but it fell into this chaos sorting that I'm talking about. Yahoo's Football 301 Nate Tice noted that this "4 weak pressure" that stresses the RB side has given them trouble in particular.

That said, the Cowboys were also unlucky when CeeDee Lamb slipped for an interception, and a bad Dak game was still an 18th percentile EPA per play outing. The entire offense isn't broken, but they're going to have to get off more deep shots to get back to their potential. 

Purely for fantasy, Pickens is a great buy-low candidate. He's only the WR23 per game through Week 6, but he's the WR13 in expected points and we know Dak to Pickens is one of the better connections in the league. They'll look a lot better against the Eagles, Cardinals, Colts, 49ers and Titans. 

2. Stock down: A.J. Brown's agility

Brown had the worst game of his career coming back from his high-ankle sprain. The drops went viral, even extending into the "hands team" section of onside kick prevention. Brown typically doesn't have a hands issue, so what's going on?

The ankle injury (and potentially playing at a heavier weight) has worked against his ability to twist and react to a target that isn't right on the money. A couple of his drops were directly tied to this when he either couldn't sink his frame on a low ball or slow down in time to catch a ball on his back shoulder. A big shot to the end zone also didn't seem overly explosive, nor did it result in an acrobatic adjustment to the ball. That was a touchdown opportunity on a double-move against a linebacker, and Drake Maye's pass was good enough. 

On the play, Brown had a pretty tough 4th-and-5 rep when tapping the brakes on a comeback route. It took an extra step, and Brown had the ball batted away because he didn't explode back to the target with enough burst. This is an easy completion in his prime. Earlier, Brown had a 1-on-1 go ball in man coverage, but there was very little separation after stacking the cornerback. The ball went inches over his hands, and Brown couldn't adjust to the ball in time over his sideline shoulder. It was a great ball from Maye. This probably is a touchdown in his prime.

Brown ultimately turned 15.5 expected half PPR points (WR12) to just 4.2 half PPR points (WR60) with 3 receptions for 27 yards on 10 targets. The good news is that he did have 99 air yards, a 33% target share and didn't suffer a setback. Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is also now on injured reserve, so Brown will get a ton of looks to work back into shape. I'd just adjust the total upside potential in the short term based on how he looks. I don't think he'll ever be considered a film-based top-10 WR ever again due to injuries. 

3. Matthew Stafford is not OK

The Rams offense is still good, but it's nowhere near their 2025 output. Not much has changed in terms of starters or scheme, and it's pretty clear to me that the reason for the fall off has simply been Matthew Stafford is playing league-average ball.

Los Angeles is still fourth in RB carry success rate (56%) and fourth best in pressure rate allowed (26%). Davante Adams was making awesome plays in 1-on-1 situations earlier in the year. Kyren Williams has been effective as a quick-hitting receiving outlet. And Puka Nacua is one of the best players in the NFL. This remains a very strong environment for QB play. Yet…

The Rams are 14th in explosive pass rate (14%) through Week 6, and they were easily first last year (18%). They attempted a throw of 20+ air yards outside the red zone on 18% of their attempts last year (3rd), but that has dropped to 23rd in 2026 at just 11%. That's almost in half!!! Some of those deep shots last year were to Terrance Ferguson out of 13-personnel, and he'll most likely be back in Week 8, but can we really bank on a tight end unlocking the deep pass? Really?

The reality is Nacua can be a vertical player but is best within 20 yards. They can't throw the ball deep to Konata Mumpfield, Jordan Whittington, TuTu Atwell, or whoever else they will rotate in at WR without Adams for the next 6-10 weeks. This team could use a Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley or Jerry Jeudy trade target right now. Badly.

On film, Stafford is taking the low on these hi/lo reads more often than not. He was ultra aggressive in previous seasons but is willing to hit Tyler Higbee or Kyren earlier in the play. It's not because his arm has fallen off. He's missed a few throws due to accuracy, like every QB, but his arm strength still seems above average. 

The play-calling is also getting more conservative. The Rams have called a screen on 15% of their 3rd-and-3+ plays this year, only trailing the Vikings and Broncos. The league average is 7% for context there. They've also ran the ball on 8% of these plays, bringing these "don't trust our pass game" calls to a quarter of their plays. Something is up here, and the latest injury update was as bad as it gets for a Super Bowl contender. 

4. Colston Loveland is back

Caleb Williams played a different brand of QB coming off his hamstring injury, operating a quick-hitting, in-pocket style. The Bears used multiple-TE sets on 33 plays, the fifth-most snaps by an offense this year. Colston Loveland is often treated as more of a hybrid WR in some of these looks, making it easier for him to earn a target.

There was a play-action first-read conversion to Loveland for 16 yards in a 2-TE set. His 14-yard TD was also in a 2-TE set, where he found space in the scramble drill and instead of being tackled at the inch-line like he had earlier this year, he was actually in. That's the positive regression coming through for us. Loveland had Cole Kmet and Sam Roush block for him on a screen at the 10-yard line, and that also almost ended in a score. The following play was another multi-TE set first-read target, where Loveland went viral by losing track of where he was versus the sideline while in the end zone. Long story short, that's a ton of red-zone usage by design without Luther Burden III on the field to compete for targets.

Loveland also had a second screen called for him, this time a delayed screen in a 3-WR set.

He lined up in the slot in a 3-WR set for a first-read conversion on an out route on 4th-and-2. 

Adding all that up, Loveland was the TE4 on TE5 usage in Week 6. I'm not fully willing to throw out games with backups or in the rain against Brian Flores, but I trust Week 6 more than any other week by far. Loveland probably faces an uphill battle to catch George Kittle for the TE3 overall race. I also wouldn't rule it out from Week 6. Get ready for every fantasy podcast citing "since Week 6" splits with the Bears. I'll be guilty.

5. Tanner McKee

I want to separate McKee from the rest of the Eagles’ roster and scheme here.

McKee was actually good. He played mistake free ball, didn't have any inaccuracies, and threw the ball over the middle more often than Jalen Hurts has. McKee's arm is pretty nice. He's a rhythm passer who won't make many plays out of structure or with interesting arm angles, but he can lead receivers through zone windows and manipulate a zone defender when needed. McKee seems pretty poised.

Since 2024, McKee has thrown the ball between the hashes in the 0-20 air yard range on 43-of-149 dropbacks. That's 29% of his dropbacks, leading to 9.6 YPA and an 86% completion percentage without an interception. That's great stuff. Since 2024, Hurts has thrown to this midfield range on 338-of-1383 dropbacks (24%), leading to 8.3 YPA and 76% completions. McKee's been better on these throws and attempts them more often.

McKee's throws to the sideline were on the money in Week 6, too. He gave DeVonta Smith real opportunities for chunk plays all game, including on his TD grab and when he drew a DPI in man coverage. There was one miscommunication between this duo on a fade versus stop route, but that happens. The good news is McKee has the touch and velocity to execute this highly-used part of the playbook. I wouldn't downgrade Smith because of the QB play right now.

Now, Hurts did bail the Eagles out of a lot of issues over the years and would be better suited on some of these league-leading unblocked pressures. Hurts can also scramble and be highly effective in short yardage, and McKee would break down immediately if he even tried it. Those plays weren't on the menu in 2026 with backups at left guard and center anyways, so once the Eagles were in this scheme and OL mess, then Hurts' value became worse. To the point that I think McKee can be as productive as Hurts would've been this year.

Philadelphia just has to kill some calls from the playbook. They have the worst under center success rate in the NFL, and the first play of the game was an unblocked pressure on a blitz when McKee was under center. They can't run the ball under center either, so they'd be best by playing in more spread looks as a pass-first team. We'll see if they can adjust to that midseason.