If the Boston Red Sox want to retain Sonny Gray for the 2027 Major League Baseball season, it's going to cost them a pretty penny.

No matter how things shake out with Gray, there's going to be a lot of money on the table. Right now, Gray has a $30 million mutual option for the 2027 campaign. Mutual options almost never get picked up. If somehow Gray's did get picked up, that'd be $30 million right there on a one-year deal. If the deal isn't picked up, Gray has a $10 million buyout.

If Gray reaches the open market, he's going to be among the most intriguing starting pitchers available and should do well, despite the fact that he's 36 years old. Spotrac currently has Gray's projected market value set at just over $58 million over three years. MassLive.com's Chris Cotillo reported back in September that some in the industry expect Gray to land a deal in the neighborhood of three years and $75 million, which is what he actually got from the St. Louis Cardinals before the 2024 season. Gray lived up to the deal and had one of the best seasons of his career in 2026.

Will Sonny Gray Stick Around?

Even if you split the difference between those two values down the middle, that would be $66.5 million over three years. He's probably going to get on the higher side, though. He was that good in 2026. Gray is 36 years old, but he should get Cy Young Award votes and potentially even finish in the top three for the American League award. Despite his age, he showed no signs of slowing down in 2026. Plus, it was no fluke. His advanced metrics were very good as well.

If Gray landed a deal in the range of $25 million per season, it would be a very fair value. That would put him on pace with Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi and just ahead of guys like Aaron Nola, Seth Lugo, Luis Severino and Zac Gallen. Gray is absolutely worth that. There surely will be competition for his services this winter as well.

Gray led the league with 18 wins in 2026, to go along with a 2.72 ERA and a 149-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 169 innings pitched. He deserves a good, multi-year deal. If the Red Sox want him, they're going to have to open up the checkbook.