The Grand Slam of Darts starts on Saturday, marking the first version of the tournament to include the new three-player group format. With only the winner advancing, a seed can go home after a single defeat, meaning all players, despite their corresponding rank, have a chance.

With 23 English players in the field, seven players can be considered seasoned underdogs, with previous experience in this tournament. Although underdogs no longer get a second chance, one upset in the best of nine format can decide a group.

Players like Ricky Evans, last year's quarter-finalist; 2022 Masters Champion Joe Cullen and Beau Greaves all have opportunities to progress but are stacked against the top seeds and past champions. What Englishman is the most likely underdog?

The statistics in this analysis cover the previous 12 months of recorded matches, including three-dart averages, first-nine averages, checkout percentages and deciding-leg results. Players are compared with their seeded opponents to assess their chances of progressing from the new three-player groups.

The Underdogs vs Their Groups, Last 12 Months

Underdog	Average	Deciding Legs %	Group Seed	Seed Average	Gap
Joe Cullen	93.36	39.29%	Luke Humphries	99.98	-6.62
Andrew Gilding	92.66	54.55%	Ryan Searle	94.54	-1.88
Bradley Brooks	91.98	40.74%	Gian van Veen	95.43	-3.45
Beau Greaves	91.43	58.00%	Luke Littler	101.50	-10.07
Ricky Evans	90.60	43.48%	James Wade	94.90	-4.30
Cam Crabtree	88.80	34.00%	James Wade	94.90	-6.10
Lisa Ashton	79.81	52.17%	Jermaine Wattimena	94.03	-14.22

Beau Greaves to rise to the occasion in a so-called group of death?

Put into a group with reigning champion Luke Littler and Grand Prix quarter-finalist Niels Zonneveld, Beau Greaves has her work cut out if she wants to make it out of the group. In her first year on tour, the world number 74 has impressed, winning Players Championship 11 and a 91.43 average, marking her the second-best-ranked player winning their tour card in 2026; only Cristo Reyes beats her.

Greaves has the ceiling to win any group, but her opponents this year prove much different to Littler and Zonneveld: her opponents have averaged 84.18, with Greaves regularly playing on the women’s series despite her year on tour, topping the tour with 17 wins out of the 24 events. Greaves’ biggest strength this year has been adjusting her averages, regularly averaging in the 80s in the women’s series to suddenly, in the matter of days, averaging north of 100 when the competition rises in Players Championship events. With a 101.31 first nine and a 39.96% checkout rate, she will need to raise her level in Wolverhampton.

Qualifying through her win on tour, this is Greaves’ first year not qualifying through her women’s tour success; in the past, she has qualified three times through topping the tour. Winning one game in each of her appearances, Greaves has never passed the group stage despite impressive performances, and 2025 was the best example of this. Beating Niko Springer 5-3, averaging 87.29, she raised her game against Gary Anderson and Michael Van Gerwen but still lost 5-4 in both, averaging over 100 in loss.

With Littler averaging 101.50 this year, it's tough to see a world where Littler doesn’t win this group, but Greaves has been so close before. Four of her six Grand Slam defeats have gone to a deciding leg, meaning 2026 could finally be the year results go her way. With Littler having been less dominant in recent matches and Zonneveld only beating Greaves once in his career, Group A might go the way of the Doncaster star.

Grand Slam Records, 2016 to 2025

Player	Apps	Match Record	Best Finish
Joe Cullen	3	5-4	Quarter-final (2022)
Ricky Evans	2	3-3	Quarter-final (2025)
Andrew Gilding	2	3-3	Last 16 (2023)
Bradley Brooks	1	2-2	Last 16 (2021)
Beau Greaves	3	3-6	Group stage
Cam Crabtree	1	1-2	Group stage
Lisa Ashton	5	0-15	Group stage

Lisa Ashton - the biggest outsider but a fan favourite

From first on the women's tour to second, Lisa Ashton qualified through another impressive year on the women’s tour, winning Women’s Series 5, 15 and 17 along the way to picking up £18700. There's no arguing the former Women’s World Champion isn’t competitive on the women’s tour, but she has failed to convert this on the group stage. Losing out in a last-leg decider to Van Veen last year, that’s the closest the 56-year-old has come to win a match in Wolverhampton, losing all 15 matches in her five appearances. This doesn’t come as a shock, unfortunately, with her averaging in the last 12 months being 79.81; Ashton is almost 15 points off her competitors and doesn’t hold this same x-factor Greaves has.

With Beau and Arrow’s ability to raise her game, Ashton often doesn't need to, with her opponents averaging 73, meaning a 79 average can actually cruise her to wins more often than not. The lowest average in the field, her first nine, doesn’t even match her Group B competitors' average, with Wattimena and Soutar both averaging over 93 this year.

Fortunately, Group B has the lowest-ranked seed in the draw, Wattimena, and also a great but not world-class Alan Soutar; it’s not quite the same as last year's group. Put into a group of Van Veen, Rock and Nijman in 2025, Ashton lost 15 legs and won just 4, losing to Rock and Nijman 5-0 despite the crowd being on her side.

Despite factors like the crowd and her experience that may impact the game, she doesn’t have the game to beat two seasoned pros. While she could theoretically win both matches and top the group outright, she is statistically the biggest outsider and may need a substantial improvement in performance. Facing Wattimena in the first, this result should decide her outlook: go down 2-0, focus on damage limitations, and move onto her game against Soots. Be competitive, and she might have a chance to win her first ever game at the Grand Slam.

Andrew Gilding – a harsh inclusion, but can he tip the apple cart?

Goldfinger's inclusion on this list is harsh, winning his first-ever Players Championship event this year and proving to the darting world that he is still an elite player at 55 years old. Slow, methodical and measured, players will know what they're getting with Gilding, but he may still surprise his competitors. Reaching three finals this year and beating Van Gerwen on the European Tour 6-4, averaging 103.51, Gilding has broken barriers and formed into the best we’ve seen of him since the 2023 UK Open title.

Averaging 92.66 this year, he hasn’t statistically improved his game, but his management and timing have been spectacular. 39.14% on his doubles; it is almost a given when Gilding leaves 40. He walks away with the leg, but making these opportunities has been the issue on TV so far. With floor exploits, he has failed to recently get past the first round of TV majors, failing to win at the World Matchplay, Grand Prix and European Championships. Struggling to reproduce his form on television, the new format can only be argued to actually go against Gilding, not giving him the second opportunity that he currently needs.

Group F is the most winnable group, as despite never winning a Grand Slam group, the all-English group of Ryan Searle and debutant Charlie Manby isn’t a hard group. All 3 players have never won a Grand Slam group, and the gap between them and Gilding is 2 points either way, meaning his past failures to create opportunities may be a past thought. Ryan Searle failing to impress on TV and Manby’s highlight being his World Championship run 11 months ago, Group F is the likeliest place for an English underdog to topple a seed.

Can classy Cullen upset favourite Humphries?

Failing to qualify in the past three years, Cullen makes his long-awaited return following his win against fellow Englishman, looking for a comeback to form Michael Smith 5-3 in the final. Never qualifying through the tour card qualifiers, Cullen has always won a tournament to give himself a Grand Slam place but in recent years has tumbled down the rankings, and his form has taken a turn.

Looking to be back after a positive start in 2026, his loss in the Players Championship 8 final to Nijman is his highlight, with all other TV tournaments meaning he’s looking on the wrong side of the top 32. Losing to Schindler 10-8 in the UK Open, he has since lost in the first round at the World Matchplay and Grand Prix, but the draw of Aspinall and Wade can give him some respect.

Statistically, Cullen hasn’t been playing to the standard his results warrant, averaging 93.36 and a first nine of 101.82, meaning his scoring has been solid, mixed with a checkout percentage of 37.64. Cullen's scoring suggests he is capable of a stronger run. But the most striking statistic which could prove costly is his 39.29% win rate in deciding legs, meaning in a best of nine format, the pressure could get to him again on stage. With darts no longer seeming to be a top priority following the birth of his third child, Cullen hasn’t been given many favours with his draw.

Group I includes the second seed, Luke Humphries, who, after winning his World Grand Prix title, is the favourite for the title. Averaging 99.98, the 2024 World Champion averages more than six points on average to Cullen. His route to win Group I lies in the hands of Paolo Nebrida, with the Asian qualifier, although not a gimme, being a much more likely win than Humphries. Experienced in getting out of group stages, the former quarter-finalist will have to hope Humphries has another bad group, which in his favour, has happened three times before, yet whether this happens again is the question.

Ricky Evans to rise to occasion in last gasp Ally Pally bid?

Last year’s surprise package, Ricky Evans returns to Wolverhampton on the back of a season that has given him very little to shout about. Winning just 36 of his 86 floor matches in 2026, a 42% return, Rapid Ricky has spent most of the year on the wrong side of the scoreline, and his numbers back that up: a 90.60 average across the last 12 months against opponents averaging 91.32, meaning Evans has been outscored more often than not.

The qualifier was the exception. Averaging 97.33 to beat Cristo Reyes 5-3 in the final, Evans produced exactly the performance he needed on the day it mattered most, and with a quarter-final needed to protect his World Championship place, this tournament carries more weight for Evans than for almost anyone else in the field. A 39.49% checkout rate and 43.48% in deciding legs are not the numbers of a player in form, but Evans has never been a player who relies on numbers.

Last year proved exactly that. Drawn with Gerwyn Price, James Wade and Stefan Bellmont, Evans beat Price 5-4 in a match where both players averaged 95, edged Bellmont by the same scoreline and finished second despite losing 5-2 to Wade, before beating Luke Woodhouse 10-9 in the last 16. Price eventually ended the run 16-9 in the quarter-finals, but a run from second place to the last eight showed exactly what the old format allowed. Under this year’s rules, that 5-2 defeat to Wade would have been enough to send him home.

Group K brings the rematch. Wade averages 94.90, more than four points above Evans, and wins 62.07% of his deciding legs, the kind of record that has seen The Machine top six of his nine Grand Slam groups. Evans’s route to the last 16 therefore starts against fellow Englishman Cam Crabtree, where the numbers lean his way: a higher average, a better checkout rate and a deciding-leg record nearly ten percentage points stronger. Beat Crabtree, and Evans needs one more upset against a player who has already beaten him on this stage. He beat a top seed in last year’s groups, but can he do it again?

Has Cam Crabtree got the blockbuster displays in him?

If Evans needs this tournament, Cam Crabtree needs it more. Sitting 69th on the Order of Merit with £107,750, the Londoner is outside the top 64, with £73,000 of that total coming from 2025 and just £34,750 earned this year. Missing out on the Players Championship Finals, Crabtree’s best results of 2026 have come away from the main tour, winning Development Tour 14 and reaching the World Youth Championship final, beating Luke Littler 6-5 in the semi-finals while averaging 97.91.

That result alone shows what Crabtree is capable of, but his 12-month numbers tell a different story. Averaging 88.80 with a 97.48 first nine and a 37.02% checkout rate, Crabtree has the second-lowest average of the seven English underdogs, and those numbers have come against opponents averaging 85.13, a level well below what he will face in Wolverhampton.

The most damaging number is in the deciding legs. Winning just 34.00% of them, Crabtree has the worst record of the seven, and in a best-of-nine group where one leg can decide a seed’s tournament, it is a weakness Wade and Evans will both test. Yet Crabtree has already proven he can raise his game on this stage. On his debut last year, he averaged 102.07 to beat Jonny Clayton 5-1, more than 13 points above his current 12-month average, before a 5-4 defeat to Danny Noppert and a 5-1 loss to Lukas Wenig sent him home in third. That ceiling is the case for Crabtree, and his floor is the case against him.

With his ranking slipping, prize money here could make a real difference, and reaching the last 16 alone is worth £20,000. Facing Evans gives him the clearest chance of a win, but topping the group also means beating Wade, which needs the Crabtree who beat Littler and Clayton to turn up twice in the same week. Has he got two of those performances in him?

Group K: Wade and Two English Underdogs

Player	Average	First 9	Checkout %	Deciding Legs %	Grand Slam Group Wins
James Wade	94.90	102.18	43.24%	62.07%	6 of 9
Ricky Evans	90.60	97.14	39.49%	43.48%	0 of 2
Cam Crabtree	88.80	97.48	37.02%	34.00%	0 of 1

Bradley Brooks arguably arrives in best form

Of the seven underdogs, Bradley Brooks arrives in arguably the best form. Qualifying through the Tour Card Holder qualifier with three averages above 102, beating Darryl Pilgrim 5-4, Wesley Plaisier 5-1 and Dave Chisnall 5-2 in the final while averaging 106.31, Brooks has saved his best darts for the end of the season. The first half of 2026 was a struggle, winning just 10 of 30 Players Championship matches between January and June, with 14 first-round exits and his match averages coming to 89.29. Since July, it has been a different story: 24 wins from 36, one first-round exit, six last-16 runs and his match averages rising to 94.77. Four European Tour qualifier wins along the way, including a 6-4 win over Michael Smith in one final, show a player who now expects to win, and the names he has beaten speak for themselves. Averaging 108.86 to beat Chris Dobey 6-3 at Players Championship 26, Brooks has beaten Hollywood twice this year, along with Nathan Aspinall, Krzysztof Ratajski, Andrew Gilding and Jermaine Wattimena, who he has beaten twice.

His 12-month numbers don’t yet reflect that surge. Averaging 91.98 with a 100.58 first nine, Brooks sits 3.45 points behind Gian van Veen’s 95.43, and his 40.74% record in deciding legs against Van Veen’s 57.14% is the clearest gap between the two. But the most recent meeting between them suggests the gap is smaller than the numbers show. At European Tour 14 last month, Brooks beat Niels Zonneveld, Dobey and Jeffrey de Graaf before losing a last-leg decider 6-5 to Van Veen in the quarter-finals.

Brooks has been here before, too. On his only previous appearance in 2021, he finished second in Jonny Clayton’s group, beating Mervyn King 5-1 and Rusty-Jake Rodriguez 5-3, before losing 10-8 to Gerwyn Price in the last 16. Drawn alongside debutant Carl Sneyd and last year’s World Championship runner-up, Brooks has the form, the experience and the recent head-to-head to make Group M one of the most competitive groups in the draw.

That leaves seven English players chasing an upset, and two groups stand out. In Group F, Gilding sits less than two points behind a seed who has never won a Grand Slam group, and in Group M, Brooks took Van Veen to a deciding leg only a month ago. Elsewhere, Greaves and Cullen need the favourites to slip, Ashton needs her first ever Grand Slam win, and Evans and Crabtree must get past each other before either can worry about Wade. Under the old format, second place would have been enough for any of them. This year, only one result will do.