Lincoln Riley built his reputation on offensive brilliance, but USC’s offense has become an embarrassment. The Trojans managed just seven points, the fewest ever by a Riley-coached team, in a humiliating 24-7 loss to Wisconsin. Worse, they finished with minus-17 rushing yards on 25 carries. A team that started 6-1 with the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and playoff ambitions now sits at 6-2, raising an uncomfortable question: What exactly is Riley getting paid to fix?

Now, Riley gets a lifeline. Ohio State arrives on Halloween night without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. But another loss, this time to a backup quarterback, could put Riley’s USC future in serious jeopardy.

“If this team can’t do offense anymore, if it can’t roll up points and roll up yards, then what are they even doing? What’s the point of all this? Because with Lincoln Riley, at least you’re supposed to get a quarterback who goes to New York for the Heisman ceremony, and at least you’re supposed to get tons of points. They couldn’t even do that,” Andy Staples said on the Andy & Ari show on On3 on October 26.

The box score only adds to the embarrassment. According to USC On SI, the Trojans recorded a 51% success rate compared to Wisconsin’s 43%, but threw two interceptions while the Badgers committed no turnovers.

“We flat out didn’t play good enough on any of the three sides of the ball,” Riley admitted.

Staples’ co-host, Ari Wasserman, questioned how USC could be physically dominated by an opponent that barely produced 200 yards of offense.

“I don’t know how helpless of a feeling it must be to be the coach watching that game from the sideline because it’s not like Wisconsin reinvented the wheel or did something they’d never seen before. It was very basic stuff that they just were being physically beaten. Wisconsin had 200 yards of total offense in that game and beat them by 17 points. Do you know how humiliating that is?” Wasserman said.

The warning signs appeared in USC’s 41-27 defeat to Oregon on Sept. 26, which intensified scrutiny of Riley’s program. However, the Trojans briefly responded.

Against Washington on Oct. 3, USC erased a 21-10 third-quarter deficit and scored 15 unanswered points to secure its first victory over the Huskies in a decade. A week later, the Trojans beat Penn State 31-23 on the road.

But those victories couldn’t erase Riley’s larger record. He stands at 41-20 across five seasons, and USC hasn’t surpassed nine wins since its 11-3 campaign in 2022.

ESPN’s Paul Finebaum has called the Ohio State matchup “the biggest game of Lincoln Riley’s career.”

“A loss to Ohio State and a backup quarterback will finish him,” Finebaum told ESPN’s Matt Barrie.

Ohio State, however, faces its own uncertainty. Sayin injured his right throwing shoulder during the Buckeyes’ 19-15 win at Indiana, and Ryan Day expects him to miss the remainder of the season, including the postseason.

True freshman Luke Fahey, a former three-star recruit from Mission Viejo, California, is the frontrunner to replace him. Tavien St. Clair also received first-team repetitions during the bye week, with Day consulting offensive coordinator Arthur Smith before naming a starter.

Lincoln Riley’s USC Future in Jeopardy, but Firing Him Could Cost $120 Million

USC’s remaining schedule offers little relief. After Ohio State and a bye week, the Trojans visit defending national champion Indiana on Nov. 14, host Maryland, and finish against UCLA on Nov. 28.

“The schedule tells us that because even if they beat Ohio State, they can still be a four-loss team. Even if they beat Indiana but lose to Ohio State, they can still be a four-loss team because UCLA is good this year. UCLA is still undefeated. They’re the only undefeated team in the Big Ten,” Staples said.

On3’s Pete Nakos suggested USC could finish 7-5 and speculated about Riley potentially exploring openings at Texas if the season deteriorates. However, there is no reported decision suggesting Riley intends to leave.

Firing him presents another problem: money. Fox’s Joel Klatt estimated that replacing Riley could cost between $100 million and $120 million, including his reported $70 million buyout.

“It’s not just the $70 million that you’re going to have to spend to buy out Lincoln Riley. You’re going to have to buy out the staff. You’re going to have to buy out the next coach from his contract. Plus, you’re going to have to build an elite roster,” Klatt said.

But Staples warned that facing a desperate USC team presents its own challenges, particularly with the Buckeyes expected to bring considerable support to Los Angeles.

“I think it’s always harder to play the team that has their back against the wall. I expect this to be a lot of Ohio State fans. Ohio State fans on the West Coast who haven’t had a chance to see their team play on the West Coast in a while, they’re going to show out,” Staples said.

USC drew just 51,144 fans for its opener against San Jose State, and Finebaum has questioned whether supporters will turn out for a program he described as “woefully disappointing.”

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Riley built his career producing elite quarterbacks and explosive offenses. Now, with Ohio State forced to rely on an inexperienced backup, USC has an opportunity it cannot afford to waste. Another offensive collapse would leave Riley with fewer excuses and even more questions about his future.

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