Less than a month from now, the College Football Playoff selection committee will release its final rankings. We’ll know which 12 teams will make up the Playoff field, and we’ll surely hear from the teams that consider themselves snubbed.

In the meantime, we’ll argue, debate and dissect. We’ve now had two sets of in-season CFP rankings, so we have a decent idea of this committee’s approach to evaluating teams. That helps as we start to go through remaining schedules and pick winners in order to project the potential 12-team CFP bracket. But … let’s save that for another day.

For this exercise, I’ve decided to put the sport’s top at-large teams in tiers. Obviously, the champions of the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 will all secure auto-bids, but we’ll label all the teams as at-large candidates for the process of this exercise (without assuming any bid thieves). I have been projecting Boise State as the top-ranked Group of 6 champion. The Broncos would make the 12-team field with an auto-bid.

Here’s a look at the top at-large teams heading into Week 11:

TIER I: NEAR LOCKS

Georgia

Probably the best team in the country. I do not understand how this team lost to Auburn, but I have been informed that very weird things happen in that rivalry. The committee loves the Dawgs, as do I. They’re well-positioned to land the overall No. 1 seed depending on how the rest of the regular season (and conference championship weekend) shakes out.

Utah

The Utes have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. It’s not that I didn’t expect Utah to be competitive in the Big 12 — I did, but I didn’t think they’d be a top contender to win the whole league — it’s the way this team has beaten its opponents. Blowing out most of ‘em. Beating Houston and then BYU in hard-fought, physical battles with a fun, creative offense led by the electric Devon Dampier and a defense that remains the calling card of the Utah football program. Morgan Scalley has done a phenomenal job in Year 1.

Alabama

The selection committee told us in its first set of CFP rankings that it believed the Crimson Tide are one of the very best teams in the country. Alabama went and backed that up in an impressive win at LSU. Considering the Tide are up to No. 3 in the current rankings despite two losses … this team is essentially in already.

UCLA

The Bruins are the last undefeated team in the Big Ten — just like we all predicted back in August! I thought Bob Chesney would this program trending in the right direction, but even I couldn’t have imagined we’d be talking about an undefeated UCLA football team sitting here in November. The Bruins have weathered a season-ending injury to their starting quarterback and won games in a variety of ways. They are No. 1 in FBS in Strength of Record (a metric that reflects the chance that an average Top 25 team would have team’s record or better, given the schedule it has faced). They remind me a lot of Indiana in 2024; they may not be a true national title contender right now, but they’re absolutely worthy of a CFP berth. It seems like the committee realized that this week, too.

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish knew they needed to beat Miami to have a shot at making the CFP this year. And they did just that, catapulting them up to No. 5 and positioning them well with three games remaining on their schedule. The only question is whether Notre Dame could drop a game and still get in at 10-2 with one of the best wins in the country — I’d lean yes, because I don’t think this committee would drop ‘em more than six spots — but the safer move is just to win out and not have to worry about it. Leave no doubt, etc.

16:08

TIER II: WIN AND YOU’RE IN

Miami

The Hurricanes lost on the road to Notre Dame without their star receiver. The selection committee understands that, even if the rest of Miami’s schedule is a bit underwhelming. The same group of committee members viewed this team as worthy of the No. 1 ranking in their first set of rankings, so they obviously think highly of the Canes, even with a win over Wake Forest at home the highlight of their resume. Even after a six-spot drop, Miami should be totally fine, as long as it takes care of business down the stretch.

Indiana

The ninth-ranked Hoosiers are probably not very happy with the selection committee, especially after the group gave them credit for wins over teams with winning records a year ago and didn’t ding them too bad for their loss to Ohio State. Then, they got jumped by a bunch of teams that got quality wins, and Indiana dropped five spots. The good news is, if the Hoosiers just win out, they’re definitely in and likely much higher than No. 9. A win this weekend over USC would be their new best win (and first ranked win), plus whatever opportunity would come in the Big Ten championship game.

Texas

The Longhorns may have figured something out in the last couple of weeks, stringing three straight wins together in SEC play — which is no small feat in the league this year. Arch Manning hasn’t thrown any of those back-breaking fourth-quarter picks lately, and the defense has been its usual dominant self. Texas has weathered a number of injuries but seemingly stabilized itself and its season at the same time. If the Longhorns beat LSU in Death Valley this weekend, it’s smooth sailing from there.

Tennessee

I don’t know why the selection committee is ignoring the fact that Tennessee beat Alabama by 16 points in a football game less than a month ago. Maybe, if both teams continue to win out, the committee will put them close enough to one another in the rankings that they’ll have to be compared to each other, and the head-to-head result will come into play as a tiebreaker. (We can ask Notre Dame and Miami how that worked out.) But in the meantime, the committee is choosing to say it believes the Tide are significantly better than the Vols, which is … fine, I guess. Tennessee would also be fine if it just wins out. At the very least, it’d be in the same 8-seed-ish range it is now. At best, that head-to-head result would come into play and perhaps jump Tennessee up even higher.

03:13

Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry look into the Miami’s outlook coming off a loss against Notre Dame and now playing without star receiver Malachi Toney. Can running back Nate Sheppard lead Duke to the upset victory?

TIER III: HIT THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

BYU

Kalani Sitake told me that he isn’t one for politicking or giving stump speeches. He wants his team’s play to do the talking. But the problem is, that’s part of college football in 2026. And while BYU has one of the best wins in the country (over Notre Dame), it still also has two losses, one at the hands of unranked UCF. Fortunately for the Cougs, the selection committee chairman compared the loss to UCF to stubbing one’s toe and said a lot of good teams have done that the week after a big win. That helps. And BYU dropped just one spot after losing to Utah. Still, BYU is close to the cut line and may need help to stay on the right side of the bubble, especially with so many bubbilicious SEC teams still set to play each other. Keep reminding everyone that you went out and scheduled Notre Dame! And that you beat ‘em!

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders sit behind two other Big 12 teams in the current CFP rankings — but they’re behind two teams that they do not have to face in the regular season. Texas Tech still has a pretty straightforward path to the Big 12 title game. But it doesn’t look like the Red Raiders have much wiggle room here, considering they’d be on the wrong side of the bubble if the season ended today. Their defense has not been nearly as dominant was it was a year ago. But it’s possible that Tommy Castellanos can lead an offense that continues to score enough to win games in this conference. Tech might need a handful of Castellanos scores and a defensive score this weekend to beat an Oklahoma State team that’s been lighting up scoreboards all season.

Kentucky

The Wildcats were the talk of the town for much of the season, making their mark in a very competitive SEC in Will Stein’s first season. And while this team will be going bowling for the first time since 2023 at the very least, its College Football Playoff chances are now hanging on by a thread. Kentucky would be the very last team into the field as an at-large if the season ended today, which means the ‘Cats likely cannot drop another game — certainly not another one by four touchdowns. If there’s chaos and Alabama and/or Tennessee come back down toward the bubble, that could also be a problem for Kentucky as both have dominant head-to-head wins over the Wildcats.

Wake Forest

The selection committee bumped the Demon Deacons up a few spots in its second set of rankings, likely realizing that Wake Forest was underrated in the first. This is a good football team, led by the resurgent quarterback Gio Lopez, who looks like a completely different quarterback from the version we saw at UNC a year ago. But … the Deacs aren’t getting a ton of respect nationally, especially without a win over a ranked team. Wake Forest needs to win out (and root for SMU and Duke to sneak into the tail end of the committee’s Top 25) and get out in public reminding people that this team played Miami well and also played a bunch of Power 4 teams well on the road, which isn’t an easy thing.

Iowa

No one is really paying attention the Hawkeyes right now. But they’ve got a chance to sneak into the 12-team field at 10-2. Iowa should win out, with Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska remaining on the schedule. The Hawkeyes might need to remind people that their loss to Ohio State happened with the Buckeyes at full strength — not the current version of Ohio State, a shell of its former self — the Minnesota loss a tight one on the road, and that the wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern came against borderline top-25 teams. Maybe one or both can sneak into the committee’s final rankings, but either way, the argument should be made that they’re quality wins. (Especially if Alabama is able to get credit for beating Mississippi State before that team fell off.)

USC

The Trojans are squarely in the CFP mix, even though they’re currently all the way down at No. 18 in the rankings. They’ve got two games against top-10 opponents still to play, with Indiana this weekend and UCLA in the regular-season finale. Win one of those to pair with the win over Ohio State, and I think the Trojans would have one of the stronger 9-3 resumes. Of course, beating both and finishing 10-2 would look even better.

TIER IV: HOPE AND PRAY

Houston

The Cougars are essentially boxed out of the Big 12 title game, which makes life difficult for Houston. Especially with BYU owning a better best win, which is keeping the BYU Cougars ahead of the Houston Cougars in the rankings so far. Houston needs chaos in the Big 12 and help elsewhere to have a chance.

Oregon

Well, well, well. I’d left the Ducks for dead a few weeks ago, and here they are, not quite zombies but certainly alive in the CFP race. Oregon has gotten itself up off the mat and fought for its season, beating Northwestern and Ohio State back-to-back after changing offensive play callers. With wins over USC, Ohio State and Boise State, Oregon’s got a real shot. The Illinois loss is a tough one, but the other two came to teams currently ranked in the committee’s Top 25. There is a path here for the Ducks to make the CFP as an at-large team — assuming they win out and get some help with SEC cannibalism — even if it’s a bit narrow.

South Carolina

Here’s another team we all wrote off early in the year. Shane Beamer’s seat was quite warm! That feels like forever ago, now that the Gamecocks have won four straight in SEC play. South Carolina would need to win out to have a shot — and this team has a date with No. 1 Georgia on Nov. 21 — but the path is there.

LSU

The Tigers have been one of the season’s biggest disappointments. LSU did not go out and spend all that money on Lane Kiffin and his roster to lose three games before Thanksgiving, but that’s where this program is after its loss to Alabama. The only way to salvage this season? Beat Texas and Tennessee. Those two wins would help LSU jump way up, and it would be huge for Kiffin — who is currently 6-18 vs. top-10 opponents as a head coach. That would change a number of narratives around the Tigers and certainly give them a shot at getting into the CFP, something Kiffin’s successor never did.

Ole Miss

The Rebels are likely on the outside looking in, because they don’t have much left on their schedule. They don’t have any opportunities left to get big wins that could help them jump up in the rankings. The only hope for Ole Miss is that a bunch of good SEC teams lose to bottom-feeders and the Rebs’ wins over LSU and Missouri help box both sets of Tigers out of the CFP. But this is quite a long shot.