Last weekend’s victory at Chelsea felt like a turning point for Tottenham Hotspur and Roberto De Zerbi. It felt like a game they will look upon with fondness and significance come May.

There was even the sight of defender Pedro Porro kissing the back of De Zerbi’s neck as the head coach gave an interview after the win before boarding the coach. “I believe in this group. I never lost confidence in my players, we have now removed our mask,” De Zerbi said.

There had been signs: the draw at Manchester United, then finally – if nervously – winning at home against Coventry City. But a 2-0 win at Chelsea, only the second victory there since 1990, was more substantial.

It feels as though that result can be the catalyst to propel Tottenham further up the Premier League table. They are off the bottom, with seven points from three games and are up to 14th.

The table is so bunched that they are just two points off sixth-placed Brentford, who schooled them so comprehensively on the opening weekend that it looked as though it was going to be another grim, relegation-threatened campaign.

And sixth should be the minimum placing that Spurs achieve. Under De Zerbi, and with the huge financial backing he received during the summer transfer window, the north Londoners should expect to qualify for Europe. They can – and should – be challenging for Champions League football.

Their fall has been astonishing. Two 17th-placed finishes – albeit winning the Europa League in 2024-25 – followed being fifth, eighth and fifth. Spurs, whatever the circumstances, should not have been scrambling around so low down.

Given the scale of spending on fees and wages – not least hiring De Zerbi himself – qualifying for Europe remains the bare minimum they should be aiming for. Anything else would be failure, no matter what has happened behind the scenes, with Daniel Levy being forced out. Add in the fact Spurs do not have the added workload of being in Europe this season and are already out of the Carabao Cup and the reasons for optimism are not hard to find.

The past two campaigns have been ruined by injuries and a lack of squad depth – both things De Zerbi is free of. The Spurs bench is far stronger. Against Chelsea it included Conor Gallagher, Dejan Kulusevski – back after 526 days out injured – Marco Senesi, Dominic Solanke and Porro.

The north Londoners have worked hard to revamp their medical department, overhauled their gym and hired Dan Lewindon as the new performance director, who arrived last October. Thanks to the restructuring, De Zerbi and the new signings, the building blocks are in place to make it into Europe.

De Zerbi takes his time

De Zerbi – despite being in charge at the end of last season, saving them from relegation – can be a slow-burn as a coach. He did not win any of his first five games at Brighton. And where did Brighton end that 2022-23 campaign? In sixth, with their highest points total of 62, two ahead of Spurs, in eighth place.

A great reference point is an interview Brighton captain Lewis Dunk gave Telegraph Sport in 2023 when he said it was “carnage” when De Zerbi started. “The first couple of weeks [of training] were horrendous,” the defender said. “They were baffling. The first meeting when he went in, I was so confused.”

In an interview during Spurs’ pre-season tour of Australia, De Zerbi made it clear he considered the 1-0 victory over Everton in May, which saved them from the drop, as the end of one project and the start of another.

Projects can take time when there has been a comprehensive overhaul to allow the Italian his own imprint, which he will have demanded as part of the conditions of joining, and to bring in enough players not mentally scarred by being so “Spursy”.

New project, big spend

The club have backed De Zerbi. Ten players have been signed and this is his team. They spent £334m – the third highest in the league after Manchester City and Chelsea. They recouped £158m, making it a net spend of £176m which was the third highest behind City and newly promoted Ipswich Town.

The bulk of that money went on two midfielders: Sandro Tonali for £100m and Mateus Fernandes for £85m – the latter they outbid Manchester United to sign. So far this season it has seemed as though they overpaid, but against Chelsea, paired with James Maddison, it was a midfield that worked as Spurs enjoyed 68.5 per cent possession. Maddison’s presence allowed Fernandes to drop deeper into the No 6 role and he looked far more comfortable. Tonali and Fernandes look like key signings to oversee what De Zerbi wants.

The frustration is that Maddison suffered an injury setback. Their win percentage with him is 52.1 per cent, without him it drops to 23.3 per cent. De Zerbi will be acutely aware of that and will not want to lose the key midfielder for any length of time.

As with most modern coaches, De Zerbi is data-driven. He is across the statistics and underlying trends and even while Spurs were losing at the start of the season, he will know that the metrics endorsed his methods.

Opta’s analysis is encouraging. For most of the attacking indicators, Spurs perform well. They rank second in the league for average possession (61 per cent) and fourth for entries in the final third (150.13) and final-third passes (156) and for crosses (15.88).

So they are not just dominating the ball – as all De Zerbi teams do with many coaches regarding him as the best at this facet of the game – but getting into areas of the pitch where they can create chances.

However, although their pressing numbers are good – ranking second for high turnovers (9.13) – these high turnovers are only converted into shots 9.59 per cent of the time, the second-worst in the league.

This is where the statistics are more concerning. Spurs are 15th in the league for goals scored (eight) and as low as 19th for xG (expected goals) with 8.22, and bottom for xG per shot (0.07). That suggests they are getting into the right areas but not threatening enough, pointing to a misfiring attack.

There are signs the midfield is gelling and will be a force, but further forward there are worries over the contributions of Omar Marmoush, Savio and a player De Zerbi inherited in Solanke. Between them they have four goals in 26 appearances. De Zerbi has already criticised the “decision-making” of his misfiring forwards.

Not that Marmoush (10 in 37), Savio (two in 53) or even on-loan Mykhailo Mudryk (five in 53) before joining Spurs, were ever prolific. Which raises questions about why they were signed instead of more reliable centre-forwards.

In that flurry of ins and outs over the summer there may already be regret at selling striker Will Lankshear to Middlesbrough for up to £20m. The 21-year-old has 13 goals in 15 games. It may be the Championship, but he has the look of a Harry Kane successor and it feels like a deal Spurs will come to rue.

Encouragingly, although Spurs’ revamped defence has conceded goals, they have been unlucky. Most of those goals – they rank 10th in the league, at 1.25 per game – have not come from high-quality chances. Spurs have the fifth-fewest xG conceded (9.9 – 1.24 per game) and the fourth-lowest per shot faced (0.09). They have also won the most duels (442), and rank top for possession-adjusted tackles (27) and recoveries (75), and second for interceptions (12). These are impressive figures.

What do they suggest? The eye already tells us that Spurs have – generally – played better than their results have suggested. Now they have gathered some momentum and, above all, belief they should continue to climb the table.

There is an opportunity to do so quickly. After Crystal Palace, Spurs are away to Leeds United and Sunderland and home to Ipswich and Fulham. They can go on a confidence-boosting run that will further endorse De Zerbi’s demanding approach before tougher fixtures in December.

The data also suggest that if De Zerbi can improve the front part of his team – and how he will pray Maddison is not out for long – then there is a case to argue that a top-six finish, or even higher, can be expected.