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Tarik Skubal's fit with the New York Mets is an obvious one. He's arguably the best pitcher on the planet right now, and the Mets, a team with tons of money to spend and a gaping hole at the top of their rotation, could certainly use a pitcher like him. But while that fit makes a lot of sense, not every one on the list of perfect fits courtesy of ESPN's Jeff Passan does.
With that being said, let's take a look at what the "perfect" move Passan believes each playoff team (and five others) should make this offseason in free agency — and give them a grade.
At this point, it'd be foolish to doubt anything the Milwaukee Brewers choose to do. They've traded stars like Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta in recent years and eventually won a World Series. Still, while I give the Brewers some grace, it's hard to fully get behind the idea of trading the reliever who recorded the final six outs of the World Series, even though he's on an expiring contract. At a certain point, trading a proven player for prospects while in the midst of a competitive window is going to backfire, right? Why not keep him around and field the best team possible to win another title? Again, though, Milwaukee will probably win the trade if and when it does happen, so there's that.
Nick Martinez was a big reason the Tampa Bay Rays reached the World Series. Not only was he a perfect clubhouse fit, but Martinez starred on the field, making the AL All-Star team, posting a 3.10 ERA in 31 regular season starts and even allowing two runs or fewer in each of his four postseason appearances (and the Rays went 3-1 in those outings). Re-signing him would look like a perfect idea on paper, but he's a 36-year-old likely seeking a multi-year deal, and while his numbers were great, underwhelming under-the-hood metrics make me concerned this random breakout could be a one-year wonder in hindsight.
It's hard to imagine a Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen without Alex Vesia, who has been with the team for the past six seasons and established himself as one of the best left-handed relievers in the sport during that span. Re-signing him should absolutely be a top priority this offseason, especially with the uncertainty revolving around Edwin Diaz after a shaky 2026 campaign. However, is Vesia really the "perfect" offseason move when their list of free agents includes a two-time Cy Young award winner? Vesia would be far easier to replace than Tarik Skubal on a Dodgers team trying to rebound after a disappointing NLCS exit. Still, this is a very good reliever that Los Angeles should be trying to re-sign.
This one's tricky. The San Diego Padres need starting pitching, and Michael King is one of the best starters available. He's coming off an outstanding year (3.21 ERA in 32 starts) and has proven he can pitch in the postseason. However, as good as his ERA was, his FIP (4.13) was nearly a full run higher, his strikeout rate has declined in each of the past four seasons and he's 31 years old with an injury history. King opting out of the remaining two years and $53 million on his deal means he's likely looking for a hefty long-term contract. I'm skeptical about such a deal aging well with where the under-the-hood numbers are trending, but with the Padres needing starting pitching, I can't knock them too much if they were to re-sign him.
On one hand, it'd be nice to see the Cleveland Guardians, an organization known for pinching pennies that did virtually nothing last offseason, sign a legitimate starter in Casey Mize. On the other hand, this Guardians team ranked 24th in the Majors in runs scored in the regular season and scored three runs or fewer in six of their nine postseason games. Angel Martinez led them with 18 home runs in the regular season. Even assuming Jose Ramirez bounces back, doesn't this team need a big bat? Mize would help them, but with a limited budget to keep in mind, the Guardians should be spending whatever money they have on a bat.
As good as David Bednar has been since the New York Yankees acquired him, Adrian Morejon is the best free agent reliever available by a wide margin, and arguably the best left-handed reliever in the sport. Signing him would certainly help their bullpen, but should that be the priority? New York scored five runs on 12 hits in their three ALDS games, and a lack of offense has been the main cause of their downfall just about every postseason. Morejon is certainly a player the Yankees should be in on, but their "perfect" offseason signing not helping out their biggest weakness knocks their grade down just a tad.
The Atlanta Braves are another team that should be prioritizing offense, but with Chris Sale entering his age-38 season and both Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach having major injury questions, this rotation could use a stabilizer as well. Sonny Gray just turned 37 years old and posted his lowest strikeout rate in nearly a decade, so there are some causes for concern, but he also just finished fifth in the AL Cy Young balloting and has thrown at least 160 innings in each of the last four seasons. Even if he isn't in Cy Young contention next season, Gray should provide valuable innings and would drastically improve Atlanta's floor on what should be a short-term deal.
Chicago White Sox starting pitchers threw the fewest innings in the Majors during the regular season, and it was clear that Sean Burke was the only starter they trusted in the postseason. It'd be hard to take the White Sox seriously as contenders without adding to that rotation, so Freddy Peralta makes all the sense in the world for them. He's coming off a down year, and even while he pitched better with the Rays, his advanced metrics still weren't great, but he's durable (160+ innings in four straight years), would not require qualifying offer compensation and has a strong track record. I don't know if he'll be worth what'd likely be a fairly hefty contract, but at least this would be a legit starting pitcher upgrade.
Kaima Taira is an intriguing starting pitching option this offseason. Not only did he post high-end strikeout rates in Japan while boasting elite stuff, but he'll be only 27 years old by Opening Day. I think Tiara would be a good signing for a Chicago Cubs team that needs pitching, but is he really the perfect addition? While Tiara has upside, he's thrown as many MLB pitches as I have, and he isn't exactly Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Cubs won't realistically be in on Tarik Skubal (even if they should be), but their perfect signing being an unproven arm who doesn't have ace upside doesn't feel accurate, even if I think Taira as a secondary piece would be a nice addition.
This one is very interesting. Ryan Jeffers is a good hitter who has historically crushed left-handed pitching, which the Boston Red Sox could use, and he's coming off his best season. Jeffers was also extended the qualifying offer and is a catcher, the same position as Adley Rutschman, whom Boston acquired at the trade deadline. What would the plan be here: For Boston to give up the QO compensation for Jeffers just to DH? His bat would fit in nicely, but the positional fit is weird. Boston should aim to add infield talent over Jeffers.
Now we're cooking. When looking at the Philadelphia Phillies' lineup, the two things they really lack are right-handed hitters and outfielders. Why not sign arguably the best right-handed outfielder available in Seiya Suzuki? He has four straight seasons of 20+ home runs, 70+ RBI and an .800+ OPS. He'd fit perfectly in the lineup. Will they be willing to spend what it'll take to get him, knowing they have a ton of ugly long-term contracts on their books? That's the big question.
The Pittsburgh Pirates actually made an effort to improve last season and were rewarded, watching their lineup go from 30th to sixth in runs scored and finishing with a winning record for just the second time since 2016. The biggest reason why their lineup was able to improve so much had to do with Brandon Lowe, who led the team by wide margins with 35 home runs and 96 RBI. The Pirates saw how good he can be, and while there are reasons to be concerned about how a long contract might age, this team should be in win-now mode and needs him anchoring the middle of their order.
Trevor Rogers is one of the best free agent starters available, so he'd certainly help improve a Houston Astros rotation that's lacking behind Hunter Brown. With that being said, are the Astros in a position to give up the qualifying offer compensation required to sign Rogers, a pitcher with durability concerns, knowing the limited funds and prospects they have at their disposal? Does he help them enough to make the risks outweigh the rewards? I'm not fully sold, but this would be a nice signing regardless.
If Suzuki isn't the best position player available in free agency, that's because Randy Arozarena is. Arozarena has six straight seasons of at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases under his belt, and he has a .787 OPS in that span. He's also coming off the best regular season of his career. He'd help any team, including the Baltimore Orioles. With that being said, are the Orioles really going to push their starting rotation to the side again in favor of signing a position player over the age of 30 to a long-term deal? This lineup could use a boost, but frontline starting pitching is the far more pressing need, especially with Rogers hitting free agency.
If there were two things the Toronto Blue Jays lacked last season, it was power hitting (they hit the fewest home runs in the sport) and stolen bases (they stole the fourth-fewest bases). If there are two things Jazz Chisholm Jr. is good at, it's hitting home runs and stealing bases. He even had a 30-30 season in 2025, and set a career high with 41 stolen bases in 2026. He's even an excellent defensive second baseman, which is great for a Jays team that really values defense. I really like this fit, but let's not forget that Chisholm is coming off a dreadful season, and Toronto finished dead last in runs scored. Signing Chisholm makes a lot of sense, but he can't be their best signing.
The Seattle Mariners could certainly use a shake-up after missing the playoffs in 2026, and their lineup, which finished third-to-last in runs scored, could certainly use an upgrade. I think Teruaki Sato has a lot of upside, but it's clear that there's some risk in his profile, with a ton of whiff and defensive concerns worth paying attention to. Should a Mariners team coming off such a rough year be prioritizing someone who has as low a floor as Sato does? I'd argue they should be pursuing a more proven bat rather than centering their offseason around Sato, even if I do like his upside a lot.
Is it fair to be concerned about Skubal's injury history? Of course. Will the historic long-term deal he's likely to get age well, given how big free agency deals involving starting pitchers usually go? Probably not. Are there some concerns about adding another huge contract to the books knowing that a salary cap could be coming? For sure. Should the New York Mets care about these things? Not really.
Look, how often do you have the chance to acquire a generational starting pitcher for nothing other than money? Not often, and he doesn't even have the qualifying offer attached. The Mets are in dire need of an ace, and have an owner with seemingly unlimited funds. When you have a chance to sign a player of Skubal's ability, you do it and figure everything else out later.
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