While it wouldn’t be fair to call last year’s San Antonio Spurs nepo babies, the truth is that where we come from shapes where we go in life. The 2026 Spurs played in a division where three teams (Memphis, Dallas, New Orleans) missed the playoffs comfortably, while the fourth (Houston) fell in the opening round.

The same can’t be said for the New York Knicks. Every defending NBA Champion faces a gauntlet the following season; every team wants to be their best against the best. But the Knicks must survive an especially deep Atlantic Division, and do so twice: first to earn a good playoff seed, then later when they could face any or all of their most dangerous division foes in the postseason.

You know the headlines: Boston signed Mitchell Robinson; Toronto (eventually) landed Kawhi Leonard; Philadelphia added LeBron James and Jaylen Brown. Last year, including the playoffs, the Knicks went 14-3 against that trio. This year, there are reasons any one of them could put an end to the Knicks’ title defense.

The King in the North is back on his throne 

The obvious hedge against betting on Leonard leading the Raptors to the same glory he did back in 2019 is his well-documented injury history. Kawhi hasn’t played 60-plus games in consecutive seasons for 10 years, even when he was still a Spur.

Because last year, he played his second-most minutes since his last stint in Toronto. And as simple a truth as “Leonard gets hurt a lot” is, no less true is “When he does play, he hasn’t slowed down. At all.” The last time he played at least 50 games in a season and wasn’t First- or Second-Team All-NBA, the Warriors hadn’t won a title since 1975.

When he can play, he will play, and when he does play, he is a problem—one unlike any the Knicks saw last year, when the best player they faced in the Eastern playoffs was CJ McCollum. 

The addition of Leonard gives the Raptors a defensive ceiling few, if any, teams can match. It didn’t get much attention, given the Knicks were about to sweep the 76ers, but late in that series Nick Nurse switched Paul George onto Karl-Anthony Towns. It was too little, too late to turn the tide, but it was clear George gave KAT more trouble than anyone else who had to defend Point Towns in the playoffs. 

Toronto has three studs to throw at KAT: Leonard (a two-time Defensive Player of the Year), Scottie Barnes (Second Team All-Defense last year) and Collin Murray-Bowles (a future DPOY candidate). They could all also see some time on Jalen Brunson. No other team has such depth of defensive dynamos.

Leonard replaces Brandon Ingram, a seeming upgrade across the board. His presence allows Barnes to slot into a more natural role as a secondary offensive player. Last year, Barnes cut down on his 3-point attempts while upping his overall scoring efficiency; he could be even more lethal this year, given the amount of pressure Kawhi will absorb. Leonard is a significantly better self-creator than Barnes or Ingram, making the Raptors more dangerous on both sides of the ball and in late-game and clutch situations.

Not a team anyone wants to face in a best-of-7.

The Celtics will be gunning for the Knicks, as always

Two years ago, the Celtics were eliminated by the Knicks in a second-round series with Towns and Robinson combining to average 25 points and 20 rebounds a game. In last year’s first round, the Celtics won two of the three games Joel Embiid missed but lost three of the four he played. The lesson was obvious: get better at center. They did.

It’s not just that Robinson sharing pivot duties with Neemias Queta gives Boston two starter-level rim-running rim protectors, something they didn't have last season. The Celtics are now deeper at the 5 spot than either the Knicks or Sixers. One awkward landing and those teams are stuck hoping Andre Drummond or Ariel Hukporti can keep hope alive. If the Celtics can load-manage Mitch as effectively as the Knicks last year, they will be meaningfully better down low.

Now fully recovered from his 2025 Achilles tear, Tatum essentially replaces Jaylen Brown from last year’s roster, with Paul George tasked with being something akin to what Tatum was in limited minutes while recovering from his injury. If all three of those parts go according to plan, Boston could win a seventh straight division crown.

Queta, Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh all earned valuable minutes under Joe Mazzulla last year. The franchise is high on Hugo González. A half-dozen players remain from the 2024 championship side. The Celtics will look different this season, but if history holds, they’ll also be the team the rest of the Atlantic is looking up to atop the division by season’s end.

The team that added the most still has the biggest hole

The 76ers added two Finals MVPs this offseason. Whether that matters could come down to someone who’s never played past the second round.

Whatever questions exist pertaining to Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, they’re enormous upgrades over George and Kelly Oubre Jr. The always dangerous Tyrese Maxey becomes even more so as a co-number one or number two, thanks to Brown’s presence. While Brunson just led his team to a title as a small guard, that’s still relatively rare in NBA history. A 6-foot-8 jumbo wing who can jump out of the gym adds size, skill and confidence.

As for James, how does one quantify all he brings to the table, even as he enters his 24th season?

The all-time leading scorer will likely climb to third all-time in assists this year, yet the Sixers don’t need him to lead them in either. Arguably the greatest weapon of mass destruction in league history is being asked to be their Swiss Army knife, helping the offense find its way into a flow state during the season or identifying a problem and solving it in real time at a crucial moment in a playoff game.

Defensively, James isn’t the omni-positional lockdown defender of his younger days, though last year he was the league’s second-leading transition scorer behind only Maxey. Philadelphia was middle of the pack in transition points. James is as qualified as anyone alive to help them score more easy buckets by turning their defense into instant offense.

James played a tertiary role at times last year with the Lakers, until injuries to others forced him to put on his cape and lead them to a series win over the Rockets. If he can stick to a reduced role in the regular season, he'd be a wild card for 76ers head coach Nick Nurse to morph from series to series and game to game.

Ironically, the biggest question mark around the franchise has become "The Franchise." For years, Joel Embiid led good-but-not-great Sixer teams. Now, for the first time in eight years, there’s enough greatness around him to dream big, if only their big man were still great. When he plays, Embiid is still a force most teams have no answer for. But the Sixers are now title-or-bust, and defensively, he looked unplayable against the Knicks in the playoffs. 

That’s the 76ers’ dilemma: they’re thin enough behind Embiid that he remains essential to their success, only now he's not merely often injured but likely injury-compromised for the rest of his career. Can they win with them? Can they win without him? Interestingly, the only game in their series with the Knicks that they had a chance to win was the one Embiid missed.

The last time the Knicks defended a title, their greatest threat came from inside the division. The 1974 Celtics won it all. season, the Celtics, 76ers and Raptors all have reason to think this year is their year. In 2026, the Knicks didn’t face a single top-10 player in the playoffs until the Finals.

Now there are three in the Atlantic alone—four if you count Brunson. As long as the Knicks can count on him, they have a shot. Get in line.