The biggest night on Notre Dame’s schedule brought out its best. In a primetime showdown in South Bend, the Fighting Irish jumped on top-ranked Miami early, weathered a second-half surge, and held on for a 31-24 win that handed the Hurricanes their first loss of the season and put Notre Dame on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff.

What Are the Chances of Notre Dame Making the College Football Playoff?

According to the PFN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM), Notre Dame’s CFP chances soared from 83.3% to 96.2% with the win. As an independent with no conference title game to pad its résumé, every week is essentially a play-in for the Irish, and knocking off the nation’s No. 1 team is exactly the kind of signature victory the committee rewards.

In fact, it was the Irish’s first win over a top-16 opponent in two years after going 0-3 against such teams during that span. The loss doesn’t bury Miami, which falls to 8-1 and remains firmly in the playoff conversation. But it costs Mario Cristobal’s team its grip on the top ranking and complicates any path to a first-round bye.

What makes the result even more impressive is the shorthanded group that produced it. Notre Dame was without captain and starting linebacker Drayk Bowen, while safety Brauntae Johnson and cornerback DJ McKinney were also sidelined. Miami, for its part, was missing star receiver Malachi Toney with an ankle injury.

Even so, it was the Irish defense that stole the show, smothering a Darian Mensah-led offense that had entered the night with 25 touchdowns against a single interception. Sure, the unit bent a bit toward the end of the game, which included a missed Notre Dame field goal, but they stood their ground when it mattered most.

CJ Carr was sharp when it mattered. The junior quarterback threw three TD passes, two of them to Micah Gilbert, and pushed Notre Dame to a commanding 17-3 halftime lead that ballooned to 24-3 in the third quarter. It was a measure of revenge, too, after Miami edged Notre Dame 27-24 in last year’s meeting.

Remaining Notre Dame Football Schedule

• vs. Boston College Eagles

• vs. SMU Mustangs

• at Syracuse Orange

If Miami was the mountain, what’s left is a gentle downhill. Two home dates against Boston College and SMU precede a regular-season finale at Syracuse, and none of the three figures to be ranked (although the Mustangs are banging on the door). According to the Football Playoff Meter, the Irish have a 94.3% chance of knocking off Boston College, 93.1% against Syracuse, and 79.6% vs. SMU, highlighting just how “Easy” their final slate is. out about 70% of the time. That’s my rough math, not a Meter output.

Barring a stunning collapse, the hard part is over. With their biggest test cleared and a soft closing stretch ahead, the Irish control their own destiny in a way they didn’t a season ago, when a 10-2 finish still left them outside the bracket, a snub Marcus Freeman has leaned on as motivation all year.