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AFC Midseason Report Cards: The Race to the No. 1 Seed Is Narrowing

The Bills are in the driver’s seat, but the Jaguars aren’t far behind. Plus, what went wrong for the lost Ravens and winless Chargers.

Josh Allen has led the Bills to a 7–1 record. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We’re halfway home. From preseason to postseason, the NFL has reached the midway point.

This has been a unique year in the AFC. The Bengals and Jaguars are both 6–2 and have cupcake schedules the rest of the way, giving them a real chance to be the conference’s top seed. Cincinnati hasn’t been the No. 1 seed since 1988, while Jacksonville hasn’t done so since ’99. Then there are the Bills, who, at 7–1, have the conference’s best record. Buffalo is looking to have the playoffs go through its new building, something it hasn’t done since ’93. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Broncos are locked in a struggle for the AFC West. Denver and Kansas City have already split the season series, with Denver having an easier road ahead. The Chiefs are 6–2 and look like a contender once more, but they face a daunting five-game stretch starting on Thanksgiving with games against the Bills, Rams, Bengals, Patriots and 49ers. 

Conversely, there are teams wondering what happened. No team has that thought more than the Chargers, who are the league’s lone winless outfit at 0–8. The Ravens are also going through a brutal year, with Lamar Jackson potentially done for the season due to a fractured and dislocated right thumb. At 4–5, and without Jackson, Baltimore appears sunk. 

The seven playoff teams appear all but set, with Buffalo, New England, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Denver in great position. If someone upsets that formula, it could be the Texans behind a resurgent C.J. Stroud. But for Houston to do it, it’ll need to play almost perfectly going forward.

Let’s get to the grades, starting with another down year in Charm City.

Baltimore Ravens (4–5)

While Baltimore’s 4–5 record wouldn’t normally warrant a failing grade, everything surrounding this season is concerning. The Ravens fired John Harbaugh and replaced him with Jesse Minter, believing they’d stop blowing double-digit leads. Then, they did so in Week 2 at home against the Saints. Once again, Jackson is hurt and potentially lost for the year. Tyler Huntley is also out for the season. For a team with Super Bowl dreams, 2026 has been a nightmare.

Grade: F

Buffalo Bills (7–1)

Buffalo has to be considered an elite team, and one of the few with a real chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February. The Bills have the league’s biggest weapon in football with Josh Allen, the reigning rushing champion in James Cook and a top offensive line. The big concern is the defense, which ranks at or near the bottom in a litany of important categories. Still, Buffalo is a virtual lock to win the AFC East and should make a deep playoff run once again.

Grade: A-

Cincinnati Bengals (6–2)

The Bengals have to be thrilled. At 6–2, they’re tied atop the AFC North with the Steelers, while the Browns and Ravens don’t seem like real threats. Cincinnati finally has a healthy Joe Burrow, who is playing at an MVP level with 2,386 yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. Defensively, the Bengals are slightly improved, ranking 25th in yards and 14th in points allowed. If the defense keeps gelling and Burrow stays upright, this is Cincinnati’s best chance to win a Super Bowl since the 2022 season, when it lost in the AFC title game.

Grade: A

Cleveland Browns  (5–4)

Give Todd Monken and Andrew Berry their flowers. As a first-year coach of a team with little outside expectations, the Browns are 5–4 and the offense is showing signs of life with Deshaun Watson under center, throwing for 1,806 yards in seven games. But the real story is a second consecutive rookie class that looks fantastic. KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston have combined for 69 receptions, 944 yards and four touchdowns at the midway point. Cleveland is likely a long-term quarterback away, but it has all the other pieces to become a contender.

Grade: B+

Denver Broncos (7–2)

It’s impossible to make sense of what Denver is doing. The Broncos are 7–2 and leading the AFC West, despite being outgained by more than 700 yards. Bo Nix has largely struggled, throwing for 6.0 yards per attempt while completing 60% of his attempts. Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton have 603 yards … combined. And yet Denver has beaten the Chiefs, Seahawks, Jaguars and Rams. Always remember that winning is a skill, and the Broncos have shown that in spades.

Grade: A-

Houston Texans (3–5)

The Texans are 3–5, but they shouldn’t be discounted yet. Houston has had a bizarre year, with the offense playing great and the defense struggling. Stroud has MVP numbers, throwing for 16 touchdowns against two interceptions. Defensively, the unit is loaded with stars Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter up front, and Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre in the secondary. On Sunday, the Texans sacked Justin Herbert eight times, perhaps a sign of what’s to come. If the defense starts rolling, Houston could make a run. But so far, the Texans are a disappointment.

Grade: D+

Indianapolis Colts (2–7)

The Colts are a tire fire. Indianapolis is 2–7, doesn’t have its first-round pick and has already fired general manager Chris Ballard. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been awful, throwing six touchdowns against 10 interceptions. The Colts have traded wide receiver Keenan Allen, guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. It’s almost assured that the coaching staff will be removed at season’s end, even if they were never given a fighting chance. Other than that, things are going great.

Grade: D

Trevor Lawrence is having a career season with the Jaguars. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Jacksonville Jaguars (6–2)

The Jaguars are the AFC’s best team so far. They don’t have the national attention drawn by Allen and the Bills. They don’t have the trophy case of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But the Jaguars are 6–2 and playing top-10 football on both sides of the ball, while Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 8.6 yards per attempt and 18 touchdowns. All told, Jacksonville has the league’s best point differential of +108, and has now added safety Jessie Bates III in a deadline deal. This is the best chance Jacksonville has had to reach the Super Bowl since going 14–2 in 1999.

Grade: A+

Kansas City Chiefs (6–2)

After winning six games last year, the Chiefs have already matched that total. However, a Week 8 loss to the Broncos has Kansas City fighting for the division title instead of only eyeing up the AFC’s top seed. Kenneth Walker III has been the league’s best free-agent signing, rushing for 872 yards on 5.5 yards per carry, while Mahomes has bounced back from multiple torn knee ligaments to throw for 2,037 yards and 14 touchdowns. Ultimately, their fate may lie in whether the receivers can become more dynamic, as no wideout has more than 400 yards.

Grade: B+

Las Vegas Raiders (4–5)

There are many positives in Klint Kubiak’s first season, none bigger than Brock Bowers becoming elite once more with 658 yards and six touchdowns to lead all tight ends. However, after starting 3–0, Las Vegas has crashed to 4–5 with the Seahawks and Broncos on deck. Kubiak looks like a fixture moving forward, but big questions remain: What will rookie Fernando Mendoza become with Kirk Cousins now traded to the Vikings, and will running back Ashton Jeanty, averaging 3.2 yards per carry, ever reach his potential?

Grade: C

Los Angeles Chargers (0–8)

What is there to be said that hasn’t already been pounded into the keyboard dozens of times this year? The Chargers are the league’s biggest joke, starting 0–8 due to horrid coaching, poor play and a deluge of injuries. Los Angeles has seen tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, receiver Ladd McConkey, safety Derwin James Sr. and others all miss time, while Herbert has thrown six touchdowns to 11 interceptions. Then there’s offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, who has been the worst hire for any position over the coaching cycle. A complete disaster for the Bolts.

Grade: LOL

Miami Dolphins (1–7)

It’s a tough grade for the one-win Dolphins, but it’s tough to go any higher. Miami might have the least-talented roster in football, especially with running back De’Von Achane lost for the year with a torn ACL. Still, Miami has been competitive most weeks, having a chance to win in the fourth quarter in all but three games. Coach Jeff Hafley can’t be happy about the record, but should be encouraged by the grit. Miami’s big question is who plays quarterback in 2027, with Malik Willis throwing six interceptions and as many touchdowns thus far.

Grade: D+

New England Patriots (5–4)

Going into the season, the talking point around New England was its tougher schedule. The Patriots haven’t folded, but they’ve floundered. At 5–4, they’ve beaten the Bills but also lost to the Seahawks, Bears and Packers. Moving forward, New England still has games against Buffalo, Kansas City, Detroit and Denver among others. To make the postseason, the Patriots need Drake Maye to be at his best. Maye has been bizarre this year, throwing six interceptions over his first three games, then two across the next five and then three more on Sunday against the Packers. If Maye is consistent, New England is in good shape.

Grade: C

New York Jets (2–7)

It’s another lost year for the Jets, who, at 2–7, are already thinking about their three first-round picks coming in April. New York has been competent offensively, for the most part, with Geno Smith throwing for 2,078 yards and 12 touchdowns against three interceptions, while Braelon Allen has rushed for 598 yards. Additionally, David Bailey has been a stud with 7.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss, putting him in a two-man race for Defensive Rookie of the Year with Giants linebacker Arvell Reese. Expect Aaron Glenn to be let go at the end of the season, creating an enticing job vacancy. 

Grade: D-

Pittsburgh Steelers (6–2)

The Steelers are consistent. They typically have quality regular seasons and haven’t had a losing record since 2003. They usually make the postseason, reaching the playoffs in nine of the past 12 years. However, they have been capped by average (or worse) quarterback play, something they’re once again getting in 2026. Aaron Rodgers has been respectable, but the lack of top-tier receivers and a penchant for short throws have left Rodgers with 6.5 yards per attempt while completing 60.8% of attempts. If the passing game picks up, the Steelers are a dark horse.

Grade: B

Tennessee Titans (1–7)

It’s been a tough year in Nashville with first-year coach Robert Saleh. Cam Ward was supposed to take a leap in his second season, but instead has stagnated, throwing for six touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games. By trading All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons to the Bears for two first-round picks, general manager Mike Borgonzi is signaling a focus on the future and perhaps gaining capital to replace Ward if that’s deemed necessary. Either way, everything is about 2027 and beyond for the Titans.

Grade: D

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