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Josh Hart's Absence Is Giving Knicks Something to Think About

Without Josh Hart on the floor, the Knicks have seen Landry Shamet step up.

New York Knicks guard Josh Hart argues with referee Josh Tiven (58) during the first quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at Madison Square Garden. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Josh Hart, who has missed two straight games for the Knicks, has let Landry Shamet wiggle his way into the starting lineup... and he was coming off a 22-point game vs. the Nets. The team’s “new” starting lineup flourished, and the team didn’t skip a beat, winning 135-105 vs. the Bulls on Wednesday and 109-97 vs. the Cavs on Saturday.

In Wednesday’s win, the Knicks’ starting lineup scored 36 points on 24 possessions, posting a 150.0 offensive rating and +62.0 net rating. It was the highest ORTG by a Knicks’ starting group in a single game this season, besting the previous high of a 137.5 ORTG across 32 possessions in their win over Detroit on October 27.

The group earned more run in the first quarter than any other starting group has this season, playing 16 first-quarter possessions. It was also the Knicks’ highest ORTG by a starting group since Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. the Sixers (183.3), when Deuce McBride was in for the injured OG Anunoby.

The starters didn't fare as well on Saturday against the Cavs, posting a 95.7 ORTG, but they won their minutes and posted a +4.7 NETRTG.

Does this mean there’s a new controversy in regard to the starting lineup?

Shamet is proving himself

The Knicks have dominated teams in the 459 possessions Landry Shamet has been on the floor this season, posting a 119.2 ORTG and +11.1 NETRTG. When he’s sat this season, the Knicks have a 110.5 ORTG and -0.3 NETRTG in 400 possessions.

Shamet provides a perimeter shooting threat that only Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby can match. He’s 20-of-48 (41.7%) from three this season, and only Brunson (68) and OG (58) have attempted more threes among Knicks players this season.

Among Knicks players, nobody has accrued more value via Off-Ball Gravity than Shamet (+6.25), per Spencer Pearlman’s The Court Lab.

Has Hart hurt the spacing?

Circling back to the other side of this coin: right behind Shamet in attempted threes on the team are Karl-Anthony Towns (39) and Josh Hart (38), who is shooting 34.2% on threes this season after making a career-high 41.3% last season. He’s now attempting 5.4 threes per game this season—his highest mark since the 2019-20 season with the Pelicans.

Two-thirds of his shots have been threes, much higher than last season, when it was 40.9% of his field goal attempts. It’s a different story with Hart; even if he’s shooting as much as he has been, he’s not proving to be a reliable shooting threat.

Out of the seven Knicks players who have averaged 15+ minutes per game this season, all but one of those players have provided a positive perimeter off-ball gravity rating. The only one in the negative? Josh Hart at -2.5.

Hart has found himself in this spot before. It's been three seasons now since we've seen starting lineup conversations surrounding him.

Don’t forget about Hart’s value

The thing is, Hart has been gigantic for the Knicks this season. He’s still averaging over eight points and seven rebounds per game, while averaging just under four assists per game. He’s been an on-off impact demon for the Knicks, just like Shamet.

In 443 possessions with Hart on the floor this season, the Knicks have a 114.2 ORTG. But they have a 105.6 DRTG and +8.6 NETRTG. With him off the floor this season, the Knicks have a higher ORTG (116.1); however, the defense tails off to a 113.3 DRTG, so that comes out to a +2.8 NETRTG in 416 possessions without Hart.

Yes, the Knicks won convincingly against the Bulls on Wednesday, but it smelled a lot like last season without Hart in a very certain way. The Knicks played 16 games without Hart last season, winning nine of those 16 games.

They lost to the Spurs, Sixers, and Pistons when he missed games following Christmas Day. They won a game without him in February last season against the Nuggets, whom they’ve owned over the years.

Most of their wins without Hart have come against bad teams, and the Bulls entered Wednesday with just one win. Their win against the Cavs on Saturday wasn't because of excellent shooting, outside of their starts. It's because of their miscellaneous work, limiting turnovers and dominating on the offensive boards.

Here’s something to consider: Out of the seven Knicks players averaging 15+ minutes per game this season, no other Knick has a higher plus-minus per 36 minutes compared to when he’s on the court vs. off the court than Hart (+10.55) this season. Right behind him? None other than Shamet (+9.0).

What should the Knicks do?

The Knicks shouldn’t be trying to decide which one of them should start. The key should be to get them on the floor as much as possible together.

The Knicks have a 105.3 ORTG and -0.1 NETRTG with Hart on the floor without Shamet in 247 possessions. They have a 114.4 ORTG and +4.8 NETRTG with Shamet on the floor without Hart in 263 possessions. With both sharing the floor this season, the Knicks have a 125.5 ORTG, 106.0 DRTG, and +19.5 NETRTG across a sample of 196 possessions.

Interestingly, 183 of those 196 possessions have come without Mikal Bridges on the floor. If you look specifically at those 183 possessions, taking out the 16 possessions where all three were on the floor together, the impact data bumps up to 127.9 ORTG, 100.5 DRTG, and +27.3 NETRTG.

When Hart returns to action, he’ll be in the lineup, right next to Bridges to start games. It’ll be more telling to see what it looks like in crunch time when everyone is healthy again.

Until Hart returns, Shamet will likely continue starting alongside the usual other four starters. He's earned it. Has everyone else earned the right to keep playing starter minutes? I wouldn't say that's true.

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