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Second Quarter: The Collapse—and Potential Rebuild—of Florida State

It’s rare to see an established program disintegrate the way Florida State (11) has over the last three years. From the moment quarterback Jordan Travis was injured against North Alabama in a late-November tune-up game before playing rival Florida, everything went wrong. At that point, the Seminoles were 11–0 and ranked fourth in the nation, a near-lock to make the College Football Playoff, with only the rivalry game against Florida and the ACC title contest between them and a bid.

But after Travis got hurt, so did backup Tate Rodemaker. Florida State labored to beat Louisville for the ACC crown with third-stringer Brock Glenn. And then the CFP selection committee swung open the trap door beneath the 13–0 Noles, dropping them and elevating Alabama into the four-team tournament. ESPN cameras showed a devastated, disbelieving Mike Norvell live on Selection Sunday after the snub.

Florida State’s record since then: 10–23 counting a 63–3 bowl loss to Georgia, and 4–17 in the ACC it once dominated. That mark is the worst in the 17-team league during that span, which makes Florida State’s repeated efforts to bully its peers for preferential treatment—not to mention trying to join other conferences—all the more hubristic. (Admittedly, some of it worked, with the advent of uneven revenue distribution that the school pushed for.)

This race to the bottom at least reached a fork in the road Sunday, when the school fired Mike Norvell (12). The potential cost is immense—he’s owed $50.3 million, though that number is subject to offset and mitigation. (At just 45 years old, it’s highly unlikely he will sit on the sidelines idly collecting that money without trying to get back in the game.) His record over nearly seven years in Tallahassee was 41–39, with three distinct phases: the early struggle (8–13); the breakthrough (23–4); the collapse (10–22). 

In a testament to the enduring good fortune of Alabama (13) when it comes to hiring coaches not named Mike (DuBose, Price or Shula), Norvell actually resisted overtures from the Crimson Tide in 2023. Previously, Rich Rodriguez (14) turned down Alabama in 2007, paving the way for it to hire Nick Saban. That worked out pretty well.

Alabama’s overtures got Norvell the big renegotiated contract that became an anchor around the neck of Florida State athletics. The buyout was enough to keep Norvell employed after last season, but a third straight dud of a year was the end—no matter what it cost. 

What happened? The Noles were an early and savvy adopter of the transfer portal, stocking the 2022 and ’23 teams with future NFL draft picks Keon Coleman (transfer from Michigan State), Jared Verse (Albany), Braden Fiske (Western Michigan), Johnny Wilson (Arizona State), Trey Benson (Oregon) and others. Then the cost of fielding a roster started to rise, and Florida State’s talent started to dip. The Noles couldn’t compete.

In a cataclysmic timing error, Florida State entered the revenue-sharing era while already strapped with huge facility upgrade costs—running well into the hundreds of millions of dollars. And this is not a program with a Texas-sized stable of rich boosters. 

While its competitors were pumping money into player procurement, the Seminoles were strapped for cash. According to reporting by The Athletic, Florida State is a middle-class spender on its current roster at an estimated payroll of $23 million to $30 million. That’s likely in the upper third of the ACC, but only on the fringe of the Top 25 nationally.

And if the money is being spent unwisely, it’s an even bigger hit. Since Travis, Florida State’s portal quarterbacks have run a mistake-prone gamut from bust (DJ Uiagalelei in 2024) to inconsistent (Thomas Castellanos in ’25) to mediocre (the current Ashton Daniels). Since the ACC expanded, no team has lost more turnovers than Florida State’s 55. That’s a reflection on the quarterbacking (and coaching).

The program’s longtime advantages have been diminished. Sitting on top of rich recruiting territory still matters, but Miami (15) is money-whipping the Sunshine State these days. And the ACC has become a more wide-open league since the Noles’ 2023 title. Participants in the last two league championship games: Clemson, SMU, Virginia and Duke. Current leaders to reach that game: Miami and Wake Forest. No matter how much they try, Florida State and Clemson no longer run the conference from a football perspective.

This is no longer the job Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fisher had. It’s become a debt-ridden fixer-upper with a muddled leadership picture. There has been little urgency to replace fired athletic director Mike Alford, with president Richard McCullough and the school’s trustees exerting control over athletics. Most coaches want to know who their direct report is before taking a job.

Does Florida State have the juice to get a guy like Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz (16) to trade the privileged-but-challenging world of the SEC for an easier playoff path in the ACC? A 24-team playoff might be what he needs to stay at Mizzou, but it’s still a battle to live in the top half of the SEC—and after seven years in Columbia, Mo., he could be getting itchy. A properly functioning Florida State, by comparison, should always be in the top four in the ACC. Caveat: Drink is already making $10 million a year and wouldn’t be taking a discount.

Could it poach another ACC school, going after Duke’s Manny Diaz (17) or Wake Forest’s Jake Dickert (18)? From a football perspective, there isn’t much comparison between those two programs and Florida State when it comes to scale, commitment and potential. Dickert also could have other options, depending how the coaching carousel spins the next few weeks. Diaz is a Florida State alum from the Bowden era who won the ACC championship last year—but that was a watered-down year in the league, and Diaz has fielded only one Top 25 team in six seasons at Miami and Duke.

Somebody will soon hire Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann (19), who has Saban roots and has been an extension of Kirby Smart. The hope would be that Schumann is the next Dan Lanning, ready to move from Smart’s right hand into a high-profile job and crush it from the get-go.

Then there is the nostalgia hire possibility, Jimbo Fisher (20). The guy who won the 2013 national title at Florida State is cheap and available, but that might be the only selling point. The track record of back-to-the-future hires is not great, and Fisher hasn’t worn a headset in three years. If he’s the hire, it might be the clearest signal that Florida State is looking backward more than forward.

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