Fantasy football is inundated with stats and charts (guilty!), but the more context the film provides, the more reliable the data gets. That's why we have a 2.5-hour show called Stats vs. Film every Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET. That show is live — join us in the chat!

This weekly column will look at some of the biggest storylines I picked up by grinding the film.

C.J. Stroud is a Top 10 NFL QB. No doubt

The film says Stroud is a top 10 NFL QB. I’d rank them moving forward as:

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Joe Burrow

4. Caleb Williams

5. Jordan Love

6. Drake Maye

7. C.J. Stroud

8. Brock Purdy

9. Trevor Lawrence

10. Dak Prescott

… with question marks with Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels for health. Then Justin Herbert can be ranked anywhere from ninth to 180th in QB rankings to me. The only QB I felt bad about not making the list is Jared Goff, who’d be 11th.

Anyways, Stroud is seeing the game very well and has always had incredible ball placement to all levels. He’s also added an extra step as a scrambler or out of structure thrower compared to his college days. We’re looking at a 25-year-old approaching 2,000 career dropbacks, meaning his NFL peak is starting now.

The anticipation on this Stroud throw is unbelievable, and the ball often has the perfect trajectory, as it did here. Another touchdown to Xavier Hutchinson in the high red zone came on the backside of the progression, and that ball was right on the money. He had another dime to Kayshon Boutte at the pylon on a high red zone out route. The touch and accuracy is S-tier right now.

The other thing about Stroud is he’s handling pressure at a different level than before. His passer rating under pressure is 94.6. It was at 63.7 before this year. For reference, the NFL average is 59.4, and Stroud is leading the position with Joe Burrow, Drake Maye and Patrick Mahomes chasing him. Years of playing behind a sieve of an offensive line have made Stroud one of the most rugged QBs.

Stroud is the QB6 in fantasy with the best weapons of his career now that Nico Collins is healthy, Tank Dell is making plays, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Xavier Hutchinson are running dirty-work routes and Kayshon Boutte is making the occasional explosive. Dalton Schultz is also one of the most underrated tight ends in the NFL. Houston is starting to understand what it has, as the team is sixth in neutral pass rate (58%) since Week 5. Stroud can be viewed as a low-end QB1 in fantasy again. 

As for the WRs, expect a full-blown rotation. That means Collins will have an outlier route rate versus the other top-15 fantasy WRs unfortunately. It also means potential breakthroughs for Dell and Harrison will be limited, as they just want to keep Hutchinson and to a lesser extent Boutte in the mix. Expected fantasy point averages over the past month: Collins (WR50), Hutchinson (WR52) and Harrison (WR65). 

Kaleb Johnson will be the Packers RB1

Josh Jacobs (hand) is going to miss multiple games and could end up on IR. That leaves a competition for early-down touches between Johnson and Marshawn Lloyd, while Chris Brooks and Pierre Strong Jr. battle for passing-down touches. Lloyd (knee) didn’t play last week after limited practices, but I’m not convinced that he missed the game solely because of injury. My suspicion is the Packers have made the call; Johnson is better than Lloyd.

Johnson had a very strong game after Jacobs’ injury in Week 9. His cutback vision was on display, as it was at Iowa when he played himself into a Round 3 selection by the Steelers. He isn’t overly explosive, but he isn’t a total slug either. He was able to beat LBs to the spot a few times on a variety of different runs. He also converted a goal-line carry by lowering his pads through the A-gap. 

After the game, coach Matt LaFleur said the team doesn't need to find a RB at the deadline. "There's a good chance Chris Brooks will be back. It was encouraging to see what Kaleb did out there, and certainly, MarShawn's played for us, as well as Pierre." The “MarShawn’s played for us” line is legitimately hilarious and a sign that it is just so over.

It’s hard to fully trust Johnson given his fumble history, but it’s something that Lloyd has struggled with himself. Lloyd also has arguably unplayable vision, and that’s where my confidence in treating Johnson as the fill-in starter comes in. If we remove the fumbles between Johnson (2) and Lloyd (1), then the discrepancy in rushing talent is obvious per PFF, who has Johnson with a 74.2 rushing grade, Jacobs at 61.4 and Lloyd at 59.3. This is also true in my other rushing efficiency metrics: 

Long story short, the Packers’ RB situation is one that has been a nightmare because of talent, but Johnson is showing signs of life and Green Bay is 12th in scoring per game this year. If he can consolidate the entire rushing volume while Jacobs is out, he looks like an upside FLEX. That’s great to find this time of year. I will be chasing him throughout the waiver wire in my leagues.

What can go wrong?

Jordyn Tyson moves different (complementary) (derogatory)

Let’s start with the role, which Yahoo’s own Matt Harmon summarizes exquisitely here:

Tyson is a part-time player, who did not play a single snap in multiple TE sets and played just two snaps on running plays where he lined up as close I was to the ball. The Saints want him dancing in the route, not doing anything else. Coach Kellen Moore did say this after the game, “We have to build this up the right way.” I’m taking that as a real ramp up period is coming for Tyson. He only had 6.7 expected half PPR points, 16% targets and 33% route participation. He’s not close to being a fantasy WR3 right now. We’ll see if that changes in time for the fantasy playoffs.

On tape, Tyson has the oddest movements in the route. He’s all over the place at the snap and at the top of his routes. Sometimes that unusualness works in his favor because he can snap off corners. Sometimes his outward toes and flailing arms make me nervous about his long-term health and precision against NFL talent. The biggest internet sickos are calling him the “WOATA” goat here:

Tyson will need to clean up the details beyond just his route running style. His fumble near the goal line is obviously something that needs to be corrected, but his comfort settling into zones is also something that can get better. He ultimately found the right spots to settle but getting there seemed a bit chaotic with his pacing and head-turning to find defenders more notable than vets. Once again, that’s normal for a rookie making his NFL debut. It’s also something that could limit his playing time, as he and Tyler Shough have only played together for so long after missing time in the offseason, too.

While he’s finding his feet in the offense, the Saints will keep using him inside-out with plenty of pre-snap motion releases to get his cross-over ability up to speed right away. Most of his production will likely be within 12 yards, while Chris Olave threatens vertically. Tyson should’ve had a touchdown in the middle of the end zone and had a couple of other wide-open stop routes, but Shough couldn’t find him in time. 

Overall, Tyson’s debut didn’t move me. Others really, really love Tyson’s ability. I still see a little more Jerry Jeudy than I’d like on tape and believe the Saints will slow play his snaps, but I can’t wait to see his highlight plays. I won’t be surprised if he starts shredding defenders on out routes for 10-20 yard gains. 

Baker Mayfield, Bucs have an intermediate throwing problem

Tampa Bay’s pass game has been difficult to watch, but what specifically is going wrong? 

Mayfield completed a 53 air-yard pass last week on a big post route to Tez Johnson, so grip and arm strength is not the problem for this pass game right now. What was more clear on tape is that the intermediate throws are a complete chore. The stats agree.

Mayfield is the worst starting QB on throws between 1-15 air yards this year. He’s been inaccurate too often, missing receivers on to their back shoulder most frequently. This can sometimes be a timing issue with inexperienced receivers, but Mayfield is doing the lean back after his release like I do when I know I shanked the crap out of a drive on the course. If an NFL QB compares to my golf swing, things are broken.

Mayfield also had a pair of interceptions in this range because he didn’t have a feel for the zone defender crashing on the ball. He thought he could squeeze both in, but the Bears beat him to the spot each time. This has been an issue throughout the last couple of years. Really ever since Liam Coen walked. Mayfield’s turnover-worthy play rate of 3.4% is third worst among 28 qualifying QBs since 2025. Not good enough.

Speaking of not good enough, the Buccaneers have a pass-catcher issue. They simply aren’t getting open enough. There are too many first-read targets for TE Cade Otton. There are too many out of control plays to Tez Johnson and Ted Hurst III. Chris Godwin isn’t separating, nor providing any after-the-catch juice. Emeka Egbuka looks the best, but he isn’t a ground-breaking athlete while battling some injuries. The only hope is Egbuka breaks out in the second half after getting healthier. Here is a look at Egbuka’s production:

Egbuka is the WR16 in expected half PPR points this season, seeing WR19 targets per game. They haven’t been working too well, but it’s extremely obvious that OC Zac Robinson is treating him as the focal point of the pass game. Just last week, Egbuka had two screens for 26 yards, had a downfield target on a double move, a dig route first down versus man coverage and an end zone chance from 22 yards out. They’ve used him in motion, in the slot and in the other ways film twitter begs top receivers to be used. 

He seems like a buy low. The Bucs are extremely desperate for him to show up.