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NFL survivor picks, strategy: Week 8 safe, value, and trap options
NFL: OCT 23 Giants at Jaguars Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
JACKSONVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 23: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) and New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) after the NFL Football match between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants on October 23, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field, FL. (Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The NFL heads into November and Survivor pools across the country have been going down in flames. Last week, the Texans lost in overtime to the Giants and the Jets lost to the Dolphins. The 49ers lost to the Falcons as well, but Texans-Giants was the big one for Survivor with Jets-Dolphins not too far behind. The Vikings held off the Colts and the Broncos pulled away from the Cardinals to keep those folks alive.

I’m back with my Week 8 Survivor picks ahead of Panthers-Packers on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I’ve lost three of my entries, with the Texans taking me down last week. I’m down to one entry that already has one strike, so we’re coming down to the wire.

This week we’ve got four matchups with a touchdown or greater favorite. The Bengals are the biggest favorites at 10.5 at home against the Titans, while the Jaguars are 9.5 point favorites at home against the Colts, the Cowboys are a touchdown home favorite over the Cardinals, and the Patriots are a touchdown road favorite over the Dolphins.

Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks for the weekend.

I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.

Safest picks

Bengals (-10.5) over Titans
Jaguars (-9.5) over Colts

The Titans have shown some life at times, but the Bengals should roll over them. The bigger question is the divisional game. Normally I’d say avoid them, but with the Colts unloading talent this week, the Jaguars should thump them.

Best value picks

Bengals (-10.5) over Titans

If you want to save the Bengals, your best remaining options are Week 12 at home against the Saints where they’re a touchdown favorite, or Week 18 at home against the Browns where they’re currently an eight-point favorite. There are some other options there, and depending on how few people are left in your contest, Bengals-Titans is the pick.

Trap pick

Patriots (-7) over Dolphins
Cowboys (-7) over Cardinals

I went with a divisional matchup above, but avoid road divisional games where you can. New England probably rolls over Miami, but I’d stay away from this one.

Dallas should beat a bad Arizona team, but the Cowboys are so inconsistent, you should stay away. You can save the Cowboys for Week 11 when they’re double digit favorites against the Titans.

My picks this week

I only have one pick left. I’m not going to overthink this, so I’m going with the Bengals.

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