Homestead-Miami Speedway has always been a happy place for Kyle Larson, but he should feel a new level of joy Sunday at the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida.

With a 67-point lead on Christopher Bell, Larson is a 99.4% favorite (per Racing Insights analytics) to clinch his second consecutive NASCAR Cup Series championship and third overall in the 2026 season finale. He needs only nine points over 400 miles at Homestead, which means he could clinch the title if he’s in the top three when Stage 1 ends on the 80th lap Sunday.

That almost seems a foregone conclusion for Larson, who has won two of the past four Cup races at Homestead (including the most recent in March 2025) and has never scored fewer than 18 points in 12 starts there.

Few drivers were more enthused than the Hendrick Motorsports star about the Chase finale returning to Homestead after a six-year run at Phoenix Raceway — where Larson won titles in 2021 and last season but has also struggled on the flat 1-mile oval.

His aggressive style is a better fit on the 1.5-mile high banks at Homestead, which was the ending point of the Cup schedule from 2002-19. Its history is nearly as appealing as its wide, sweeping surface that allows for multiple lanes of racing.

“It’s a great track in an amazing part of the country,” Larson said. “Yeah, the championship weekend was held here for so long. Even before I raced here, I always looked forward to championship weekend. There’s been a lot of cool moments from this place.

“Then getting to race here, this track is awesome too. Definitely was a different feel whenever it wasn’t championship weekend, so I’m glad it’s back and we can all have some fun.”

Here are other storylines to watch Sunday (with the prerace show beginning on NBC at 2 p.m. ET and the race starting shortly after 3 p.m.):

High line to glory

Running well at Homestead comes with the risk of putting a car inches from the wall at 200 mph every lap. That’s where Larson, the dirt track veteran who has made a career of running “the cushion” on the high side of racetracks around the country, is most comfortable, and he won’t be changing that despite the stakes Sunday.

“Although it doesn’t look like it because I run so close to the wall, I’m always trying to get to the end of the race,” he said. “That’s the main objective. So I would say there’s no difference in that for me. The most grip is against the wall, so usually where the most grip is is a little bit easier.”

Though a slip of the wheel can damage the car, Larson said the consequecnes have been lessened since the 2022 introduction of the Next Gen model, which is more durable.

“With the old previous car, most of the grip is still at the top, but there’s way more risk up there,” he said. “Now there’s still risk, but a lot less. I foresee my race looking like any other Homestead race for me. Try to get to the front and manage the race from there, and hopefully the first stage goes well and then you can really just race free after that.”

Two long-shot contenders

The odds are low for a massive championship upset by Bell (a 0.2% chance) or Denny Hamlin (70 points behind and a 0.4% favorite), the only other remaining Chase drivers eligible to win the title.

But the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have solid Homestead records and strong motivation to finish well.

Hamlin, who has three wins at the track 30 minutes south of Miami, wants to end the 2026 season on a high note after a highly disappointing Chase (which underperformed an excellent regular season that earned him the top seed). He has already announced that 2027 will be his last in Cup, so the push for an elusive first championship starts Sunday.

Bell is an October 2023 winner at Homestead who has finished fourth or better in two of the past three races there. In a fitting ending to a season with eight runner-up finishes, he is in range for a career-best second in the points standings (though he would prefer to do so by earning his second victory this season).

The Reddick rocket

Among active Cup drivers at Homestead, Tyler Reddick has the best average finish of 8.8 and also won consecutive O’Reilly Auto Parts Series championships with wins in the 2018-19 finales.

His Oct. 27, 2024 win from the pole with a last-lap pass of Ryan Blaney (valuting Reddick into the championship round) was among the most memorable in the track’s 31-year history.

After winning the Daytona 500 and five of the first nine races, Reddick flamed out as a title hopeful in the season’s second half. The 23XI Racing driver can find some redemption as being among the favorites to win Sunday.

A long layoff ends with flair

It’s been 595 days since the last Cup race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and the track has undergone an aesthetic makeover in the interim. Miami artist Romero Britto has added colorful touches around the track that are designed to highlight its connection to South Florida and its virbrant creative scenes. The pop art will be featured on a new winner’s trophy and a new mural on the track’s tower.

“I have always loved the incredible energy and excitement of watching the cars race by, the speed, the movement, the passion,” Britto said in a release. “NASCAR is such an iconic American sport, and that energy connects beautifully with my art, which is all about color, movement, happiness, and celebrating life.”

The track has also expanded its infield fan zone and renovated its Turn 1 suites.