The NFL is headed into the proverbial dog days before the holiday season heats up the playoff race. The trade deadline was this past Tuesday and it was plenty active. The Jaguars were the busiest team, while the Vikings made arguably the most important move, trading for Kirk Cousins after Carson Wentz stunk up the joint on Monday Night Football.

If you were still alive in your Survivor pool headed into Week 9, you probably remain so heading into Week 10. There were very few upsets, with Packers over Patriots being the only betting upset. I took the Bears and it worked out for me, although the Bucs did give them some trouble.

I’m back with my Week 10 Survivor picks ahead of Commanders-Giants on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I’m down to one entry that has one strike against it, but I continue rolling along.

Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks for the weekend.

I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.

Jaguars (-10.5) over Titans
Rams (-9.5) over Cardinals
Bills (-8) over Jets

These are the three favorites with a greater than touchdown spread. Early in the year it’s best to avoid divisional games, especially divisional road games. But now that we’re past the halfway point, you can’t necessarily be as picky. You’ll likely want to save some of these squads, but if your pool is getting light, these are all good picks.

Rams (-9.5) over Cardinals

LA is going to be a popular pick this week for those who haven’t already used them. After this week, their biggest remaining odds are at home against the Packers in Week 12 and at home against the Cowboys in Week 15. Given how shaky the Rams have been, neither is a particularly compelling matchup. The Cardinals are down to their third string quarterback. They might put up a fight, but they’re not winning this game.

Seahawks (-6.5) over Raiders
Colts (-3.5) over Dolphins
Texans (-5) over Browns

The Seahawks are traveling to face a Raiders squad likely sending out rookie QB Fernando Mendoza. He’s a complete wild card in this game. Seattle’s defense probably creates too many problems for him, but I’d stay away from this game.

The Colts have been dealing players left and right, but now we also have the Dolphins putting Malik Willis on injured reserve. Indy is tempting if you need to roll the dice, but stay away from it.

Houston is a five point road favorite in Cleveland and is showing a bit more life of late. But the Browns are enough of a wild card team that you should stay away from this one.

I’ll be going with the Rams this week. I have the Jaguars and Bills available, but I’m saving them for upcoming weeks.