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Predicting when the Vikings will lose their first game as the NFL's last undefeated team

A hot start doesn't guarantee a strong finish at this level.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray before the game against the Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Are the Minnestota Vikings officially on fraud watch? After starting the season 6-0, largely on the back of an insanely good defense, the Vikings should theoretically be hopeful about making a Super Bowl push. Yet, history indicates the opposite in the most hilarious way.

Since 2017, every team to start 6-0 has made the playoffs, with five of them advancing to the Super Bowl. The last franchise to miss the postseason after such a hot start? The 2016 Minnesota Vikings, which inexplicably finished the year 8-8. And the underlying stats aren't helping fans have confidence that this year's team will not repeat that unfortunate history.

Minnesota has played the third-easiest strength of schedule to date (.390 opposition win percentage). Over the next four weeks, it'll face the hardest strength of schedule (.731 opposition win percentage). That includes matchups against the three best quarterbacks in the league by Expected Points Added (Detroit and Jared Goff, Buffalo and Josh Allen and San Francisco and Brock Purdy). The Vikings' defense is about to be put through its most grueling tests yet.

Predicting when the undefeated Minnesota Vikings lose their first game in 2026

Miami Dolphins v Minnesota Vikings | David Berding/GettyImages

It seems hard to believe that this Minnesota team can make it through its upcoming gauntlet unscathed. The Vikings' offense has scored just 125 points across six games and is going to need to keep up with some seriously high-powered scorers over the next four weeks.

  • Week 8 at Detroit Lions (184 points)
  • Week 9 vs. Buffalo Bills (197 points)
  • Week 10 at Green Bay Packers (144 points)
  • Week 11 at San Francisco 49ers (197 points)

Brian Flores' defense is limiting opponents to 12.3 points per game. That's eerily similar to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense, which held foes to 10.3 points per game and had only scored 125 points of offense through six games too. Maybe it's purple magic, but if Minnesota is going to prove it has a revival of the Purple People Eaters, this four-game stretch is where both sides of the ball have to be playing at full tilt.

First up are the Detroit Lions, coming off a tense 20-17 victory over fellow NFC North rival Green Bay. Minnesota beat the Packers in a 39-22 shootout in Week 1, but Detroit's beleaguered defense managed to limit quarterback Jordan Love's ability to find the end zone despite giving up 274 yards through the air. With the Vikings not seeing elite play from Kyler Murray and having running backs Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason hampered, this could pose a big issue.

Jared Goff has yet to throw an interception this year. If Minnesota is going to win here, it's got to force him into making his first few mistakes of the season. On top of that, it has to slow down Jahmyr Gibbs, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The Vikings defense is surrendering 97.8 yards per game to opposing backs so far. This feels like a game where Gibbs breaks off one big run for a score that makes all the difference and the Vikings' conquest comes to a halt.

Predicted First Loss: Nov. 1 at Detroit Lions, 17-13

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