Austin: Kimi Antonelli strolled easily through the paddock at the Circuit of the Americas, his boyish grin, tousled hair and easy demeanour never giving a hint of what is at stake for the 20-yearold Italian.

The Mercedes driver will start the US Grand Prix on Sunday with his fingertips tantalizingly within reach of the Formula One championship. It would be a stretch to win the title on Sunday, and things would have to fall perfectly in place.

But it could happen. And if it does, Antonelli would become the youngest champion in F1 history and first Italian since Alberto Ascari in 1953.

“It definitely is crazy if you think about it, but that’s why I won’t think about it,” Antonelli said.

”The others need to have a poor result, which is unlikely to happen.” He looks ready to make a charge at the checkered flag.

Antonelli was second-fastest behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in Friday’s afternoon practice. An Antonelli victory, coupled with Mercedes teammate George Russell finishing ninth or lower and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton finishing fifth or lower would clinch it. That’s a tangle of mathematical formulas.

Even if they don’t add up, Antonelli will leave Austin closer to the championship as his rivals are simply running out of races left on the calendar to catch him. Whenever Antonelli is crowned, it will cap off a season where Mercedes jumped to the front of the grid from the opening race, boosted by a new generation of cars.

Many thought it would be George Russell in Antonelli’s position by late October. He was the team’s No. 1 veteran driver. He won the first race. Antonelli quickly caught him, passed him and ultimately left his teammate behind in a cloud of frustration. Antonelli won the next five races and has eight wins total.

“It’s been really great to see his performances this year. It’s massively impressive, and he deserves to be the champion,” said Hamilton, a seven-time champion with McLaren and Mercedes.

Cadillac driver Valtteri Bottas was Antonelli’s teammate at Mercedes in 2025 and watched the ups and downs of his rookie season.

“He’s just taking things to the next level this year. It makes me proud,” Bottas said. “He hasn’t shown any signs of pressure or weakness.” Off-track factors could also help Antonelli’s title chase.

The final two races on the schedule are in Qatar and Abu Dhabi. Formula 1 officials have said they plan to race both, even amid tensions in the Middle East from the Iran war. But officials are planning a possible substitute race at Imola in Italy. If the season is shortened, that could hand Antonelli the title outright as there wouldn’t be enough races left to catch him.

The Red Bull driver would seem a favourite to win Sunday after dominant victories in Malaysia and Singapore. Verstappen has four career victories at COTA. It has been an impressive turn in form for the former four-time champion after a slow and frustrating start raised questions whether he might even leave F1.