Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where Florida State’s Rick Stockstill went with a YOLO fake field goal in his first game as interim head coach. First Quarter: Welcome to the Dead Zone. Second Quarter: Scapegoat Season. Third Quarter: Is Jeremiah Smith the Next All-Time Great to Not Win the Heisman?

Fourth Quarter: Mapping Out the Stretch Drive 

The final quarter of the regular season is at hand—three games to go for just about everyone, all open dates dispensed with. It’s go time down the stretch toward conference championships and College Football Playoff bids. The Dash has plotted out a few scenarios.

The Sankey scenario (30)

Given the first set of CFP rankings, a four-bid SEC seems highly likely and five is in play. Six? It would be obnoxious, but not out of the question.

The least complicated way for the SEC to inhale up to half of the bracket is a two-step process: Georgia (8–1), Alabama (7–2), Texas (7–2), Tennessee (7–2) and Kentucky (7–2) all keep winning, while Mississippi (6–3) also wins out. That gets five of them to 10–2 or better and at least one 9–3 option. Those six teams don’t have any games left against each other, so it’s possible. Toughest remaining games for that group: Texas at LSU on Saturday (the Tigers are slight favorites) and Kentucky’s closing gauntlet of Florida, at Missouri and rival Louisville.

Alternatively, if Georgia would like to take one for the cause and lose to either Missouri (6–3) on Saturday or South Carolina (6–3) on the road Nov. 21, that could help stack the SEC deck. Georgia probably would not like to take one for the cause.

The Big Ten rebound scenario (31)

At No. 4 in the first CFP rankings, Indiana (8–1) did nothing to hurt itself during an open date. At No. 8, UCLA (9–0) should have helped itself with a two-touchdown road win over Minnesota. But No. 12 Ohio State’s third loss of the season, at home to Oregon, thins the herd. Iowa (7–2), USC (7–2) and Oregon (6–3) will move up this week, but they were well outside the bracket at Nos. 19, 20 and 23, respectively.

Five of those six Big Ten teams are at home and favored by at least a touchdown Saturday. The sixth is USC, which is a touchdown underdog at Indiana. The following weekend, the script flips, five of those teams are on the road and USC is at home. Three face long-travel trips: Oregon at Michigan State on Friday; Indiana at Washington; and UCLA at Michigan.

Here’s the pickle for the Big Ten: Its top two teams, UCLA and Indiana, currently have zero wins over ranked opponents. (Nor does Iowa.) Oregon has two (USC and Ohio State), Ohio State has two (Indiana and Iowa) and USC has one (Ohio State). If USC wins out, it makes the field and adds a loss to the Bruins (at 11–1 they’d still be in the Big Ten championship game) and the Hoosiers (at 10–2 it could be dicey to make the CFP as an at-large team).

A potential path to three bids: UCLA and Indiana meet in the Big Ten title game with both 11–1 and all but assured of CFP bids. Oregon (9–3), USC (9–3), Ohio State (9–3) and Iowa (10–2) join the résumé fight for a No. 11 seed.

The Big 12 multibid scenario (32)

The best way to lock up two bids is for 11–1 Texas Tech to beat 12–0 Utah in the league title game. (If Arizona beats the Utes on Saturday, it’s great for the Wildcats but not additive for the league.) The second-best way might be 11–2 BYU turning the tables on the Utes (12–1) in the Big 12 championship tilt, with the Cougars’ résumé strengthened by the win over Notre Dame. If Utah wins out to finish 13–0, it will be a top-four CFP lock but likely shut out the rest of the conference.

The ACC two-bid scenario (33)

This is also fairly straightforward, with 11–1 Miami and 11–1 Wake Forest meeting in Charlotte and playing another competitive game, as they did when the Hurricanes won 33–20 in Winston-Salem, N.C., in mid-September. Both should make the field under that construct, although it would be an easier sell if the Demon Deacons win the rematch. (Wake would have a road win over SMU on its résumé at that point.)

SMU (7–2) has an opportunity to wreak some havoc, with Wake Forest coming to Dallas Saturday and a trip to South Bend on Nov. 21. If the Mustangs make the title game at 10–2 and then beat Miami, the ACC would have a pair of 11–2 teams to strongly consider.

Duke (7–2) also has a chance to throw the conference into tumult, with games at Miami on Saturday and at Wake Forest on Nov. 28. Much like last year, the Blue Devils loom as an agent of chaos more than a potential playoff team.

The Group of 6 squabble scenario (34)

The messy separation that created a dueling Mountain West (35) and Pac-12 (36) could lead to a beauty contest between 12–1 New Mexico of the MWC and 12–1 Boise State of the Pac-12. Their lone losses were competitive games against power-conference opponents (the Lobos lost by eight to Oklahoma, the Broncos lost by 10 to Oregon). Boise State has the better nonleague slate, having beaten Memphis and Western Michigan. But there is plenty of hay to bale for either to get to 12–1.

The dud Rivalry Week scenario (37)

This looks all too real at this point. With the current CFP Top 25, there is only one ranked vs. ranked game on Thanksgiving weekend—USC at UCLA.

Michigan–Ohio State is a massive letdown, with the teams owning a combined seven losses already. Last time they met with neither team in the AP top 15: 1987. The Iron Bowl remains one team with a lot to lose and another with nothing to lose, as Auburn tries to find its way back to competitiveness. Texas A&M’s travails have thrown a wet blanket on the matchup with Texas. Same with Clemson against South Carolina, Georgia Tech against Georgia, Vanderbilt against Tennessee, Florida State against Florida and Purdue against Indiana.

(One to keep an eye on: Louisville at Kentucky. If the Cardinals are 8–3 and the Wildcats are 9–2 and trying to lock up a playoff bid, it could be the biggest game in series history.)

On the other hand: Upsets by unranked rivals of teams with something to play for would be juicy.

Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week 

Matt Campbell (38), Penn State

It hasn’t been a good debut season by any stretch for Campbell in Happy Valley, but his team showed some pride by going across the country to beat Washingtonian Seattle. The Nittany Lions dominated the first half, stacking up explosive plays to take a 28–6 lead, then hung on in the second half for a 28–25 victory. Penn State secured the win by grinding out the last 7:40 without surrendering possession of the ball. The Nittany Lions could close with three more wins and an 8–4 record, which would make everyone feel better about what’s to come.

Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work 

Keith Traylor (39), UTSA

With his team arguably in the Group of 6 playoff pole position, the 7–1 Roadrunners were blown off the map in Boca Raton, Fla., losing 60–29 to Florida Atlantic. That was the most points UTSA has surrendered in seven years. When Traylor’s teams go down recently, they sometimes go down unexpectedly hard. Last year UTSA had losses by 32 to South Florida and 38 to North Texas; in 2024 they were beaten 39 by Texas State.

Point After 

When on a sleep-deprived, time-crunched drive home from Notre Dame across the middle of Indiana, The Dash recommends the desperation drive-thru solace of White Castle (40). Order a sack of cheeseburgers and a Coke Zero and thank (or blame) The Dash later.

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