Two ladies seeking their first WTA Finals win of 2026 will square off in Group 2 action as Karolina Muchova faces Elina Svitolina at the Indian Wells Gardens.

The seventh-ranked Czech player lost a pair of close sets to Aryna Sabalenka, with the latter winning 7-6 (7-2) 7-5, while Svitolina was beaten by Mirra Andreeva 4-6 0-6.

Match preview

The opening match was a hard lesson for Elina Svitolina, who struggled to keep up with the younger Andreeva.

The 32-year-old did not hit a single ace on the day, while picking up only 19 receiving points across the two sets.

Svitolina struggled on her first serve, winning just 55% of hers, while Andreeva won 85% in the match.

Monday was her first appearance in this tournament since 2019, and it showed at times as the Ukrainian gave up 68 points overall.

The semi-finalist at this year’s Indian Wells Open has lost consecutive matches on this surface after winning her first four outings on it in March.

Entering this tournament, she had won over 70% of her service games, but on Monday won fewer than 60% of her first and second serves, respectively.

Although she came up short in her opener, Karolina Muchova gave Sabalenka all she could handle in her opening match of this tournament.

On Monday, Muchova benefited from Sabalenka’s seven double faults, converting 50% of her break point opportunities in the loss (4/8).

At the same time, she lost the only tiebreak of that match while winning 46% of her second serves.

Overall, she was pleased with her performance afterwards and will try to avoid losing three straight singles matches on the hard court in this one.

Muchova has won 30 receiving points at the WTA Finals this year, while giving up 33 herself in the opening match on Monday.

In 2026, Muchova has won over 65% of her first serves across all surfaces, though she only won 63% of hers against Sabalenka.

Tournament so far

Elina Svitolina:

First match: vs. Mirra Andreeva 4-6 0-6

Karolina Muchova:

First match: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 7-6 (7-2) 7-5

Head To Head

Qatar Open (2019) - Quarter-finals: Svitolina wins 6-4 6-2

Wimbledon (2019) - Quarter-finals: Svitolina wins 7-5 6-4

Miami Open (2025) - Round of 32: Svitolina wins 6-2 3-6 6-2

Stuttgart Open (2026) - Semi-finals: Muchova wins 6-4 2-6 6-4

In Qatar in 2019, when these two first met, it was Svitolina who emerged victorious, winning 79% of her first serves on that occasion.

The Ukrainian won again when the two met on grass at Wimbledon that same year, as Svitolina converted six break points with just one double fault.

In Miami a few years later, Svitolina triumphed, converting five break points to advance in three sets.

Muchova finally beat her this year, winning 71% of her first serves in Germany and converting four break points.

We say: Svitolina to win in three sets

This could be a much closer match between the two, and we believe Svitolina’s past success against Muchova will provide her with a slight psychological edge.