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Arkansas basketball vs Virginia prediction, pick for top-15 showdown

Arkansas basketball is giving its top-rated freshman an early-season homecoming for the second straight year.

Jordan Smith Jr. returns to Washington DC as the No. 13 Razorbacks (1-0) face No. 10 Virginia (1-0) on Sunday, Nov. 8. In 2025, Darius Acuff Jr. went home to face Michigan State during the opening week of the season.

"Just for me to play a college game there, not a lot of people get the chance to do that unless you go to a college in the city," Smith said. "Just for me to come back home in front of my friends and family, it means a lot to me."

This will be the first major test for both teams. Arkansas rolled over UAPB in its first game, while the Cavaliers cruised past Drexel. For the Razorbacks, this is the first of three nonconference games against teams ranked in the preseason USA TODAY Coaches Poll.

Here are three things to watch and one score prediction for Sunday's top-15 showdown.

How does Arkansas basketball fare against Thijs De Ridder

De Ridder is the fulcrum of Cavaliers' offense. He's a 6-foot-9 forward who can hit 3-pointers, score from the low post and run in transition. He averaged 15.6 points and 6.2 rebounds last year as a freshman. In Virginia's first game of this season, the Belgium native had 24 points with nine rebounds and went 2 of 4 on 3s.

It will be interesting to see who lands the primary assignment for Arkansas. Cooper Bowser, Miikka Muurinen and Maper Maker might all spend time defending De Ridder. The Hogs' big men will also need to account for Johann Grunloh, Virginia's 7-foot center who can make 3-pointers.

Fearsome frontcourts gave Arkansas all sorts of trouble last year. This is the Razorbacks' first opportunity to prove a revamped roster is better suited to handle players like De Ridder.

What's the pace of play?

This is no longer a Virginia program built in the mold of Tony Bennet. Second-year head coach Ryan Odom isn't afraid of track meets, and the Cavaliers ranked 73rd nationally last year with 80.4 points per game. In the previous five years under Bennett, their best national ranking in scoring offense was 251st.

Virginia is comfortable in an up-tempo matchup, and point guard Chance Mallory is gifted at dictating pace. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Cavaliers tap into their historical approach. Arkansas wants to run at any possible moment, and the Hogs have the advantage in athleticism. Virginia will want to force Smith to execute in half-court offense.

Both teams more than 75 possessions in their season-openers. Arkansas hopes that number carries over, while Virginia will probably try to keep it in the 60s.

Nov 3, 2026; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA;  Arkansas Razorbacks guard Jordan Smith Jr (23) dribbles the ball against UAPB Golden Lions guard Braylon Johnson (20) during the first half at Bud Walton Arena.  Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Can Arkansas win the turnover battle?

Arkansas forced 24 turnovers against UAPB. The Cavaliers had 21 takeaways vs. Drexel. Both teams like to apply fierce on-ball pressure with the hopes of creating transition opportunities at the other end.

This early in the season, we have some concerns about how the Hogs' offense performs against an aggressive defense. Overall, this will be one of the most important statistical categories for Arkansas throughout the year. Don't be surprised if the winner in turnover-margin also finds itself ahead on the scoreboard Sunday when the clock strikes triple zeros.

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