Kimi Antonelli made history in Sunday’s Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix, becoming the youngest Drivers’ Champion in the history of the sport.

Now he and the rest of Mercedes can turn their eyes to another prize, the Constructors’ Championship.

Mercedes had a narrow path to clinching the Constructors’ title last Sunday in Mexico, but now the math is a little easier for them starting with next weekend’s São Paulo Grand Prix at Interlagos. Here is how the Silver Arrows can clinch the team’s first Constructors’ Championship since 2021 in Brazil.

Thanks to Antonelli’s third-place finish in Mexico City, and a sixth-place finish from George Russell, Mercedes enters the São Paulo Grand Prix with 630 points, giving the team a commanding 126-point lead over Ferrari with four race weekends remaining, including the upcoming São Paulo Grand Prix:

Ferrari is the only team with a mathematical chance to catch Mercedes in the standings.

Given that each of the remaining races follows the standard Grand Prix format (and does not include an F1 Sprint race) the maximum points available to a team each weekend is 43: 25 points for a win, and 18 points for a second-place finish.

That means that to clinch the Constructors’ Championship, Mercedes needs to leave the São Paulo Grand Prix with at least a 129-point lead. After Brazil, only three races will remain, offering a maximum of 129 points. Mercedes has already clinched the “countback” tiebreaker over Ferrari, as the Silver Arrows have won 12 races, compared to two for Ferrari, so even if the Scuderia win every remaining race, Mercedes will have more wins.

So if the teams finish level on points, the number of wins serves as the first tiebreaker, and Mercedes has clinched that countback tiebreaker.

So how can Mercedes reach that 129-point advantage, and clinch the title in Mexico City?

They need to extend the current 126-point lead by just three points. That would push their advantage to 129 points, mathematically eliminating Ferrari from contention.

How can they clinch?

The first is with a one-two finish in Brazil. If either Antonelli or Russell wins the São Paulo Grand Prix and the other driver finishes second, that would give Mercedes 43 points, moving their season total to 673. Even if Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton combine to finish third and fourth, that would give Ferrari 27 points, bringing their total to 531.

And the gap between the two teams would be 142 points, more than enough for Mercedes to clinch.

The Silver Arrows can also clinch with a P1-P3 combination. That would give Mercedes 40 points, and move their season total to 670. Then even if Ferrari finish second and fourth, their total would increase to 534 points, a gap of 136 points, more than enough to lock up the title for Mercedes.

In addition, Mercedes can clinch with a P1 and a P4 combination, which would see the team add 37 points to their account, bringing their season total to 667. Then, even if Hamilton and Leclerc combine to finish P2 and P3, Ferrari’s subsequent 33 points would bring the Scuderia’s season tally to 537, representing a gap of 130 points between the two teams.

The math does get tougher if Ferrari scores a win in Brazil, and Hamilton has enjoyed a great deal of success at Interlagos. Should Ferrari finish one-two in Brazil, that would extend the title fight to Las Vegas. A front-row lockout would give Ferrari the maximum 43 points, and increase the team’s season total to 547, a gap of 83 points. Even if Mercedes finished third and fourth, they could not increase the lead over Ferrari to the requisite 129 points.

The only way Mercedes can clinch the title if Hamilton or Leclerc win in São Paulo is by putting both Russell and Antonelli on the podium alongside the Ferrari driver. Then, Mercedes would need the other Ferrari driver to finish eighth or worse, which would give the Silver Arrows the gap they need. A Ferrari win plus a P8 would combine for 29 points, and move Ferrari’s season total to 533.

A P2 and P3 combination is good for 33 points, and that would move Mercedes’ season tally to 630 points, a gap of 130 and enough to clinch the title.

But to show the fine margins here, if one Ferrari driver wins and the other finishes in P7, that would give Ferrari 31 points in Brazil and move their season tally to 535. Then even if Russell and Antonelli finish on the podium, the subsequent 33 points would move the team’s tally to 630, and the gap of 128 points would be one shy of the needed 129.

Here is a table looking at the potential results discussed. Remember, Mercedes needs a gap of 129 points following the checkered flag to clinch:

Given that Mercedes clinches with a front-row lockout, or a double podium, or a P1 and P4 combination, it is fairly likely the Silver Arrows can clinch the title in São Paulo.

Mercedes has three front-row lockouts this season: Australia, China, and Monza. They also have a P1/P3 combination from Austria, and a P1/P4 from Japan on their team resume. So getting the results they need to clinch before we consider Ferrari’s finish in Brazil is on the table.

There is one final point to mention, which is the speculation over the final two races currently on the schedule.

F1 is set to finish the season with the Qatar Grand Prix, and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. But ongoing hostilities in the Middle East — and the reporting that the United States is set to increase operations following next week’s midterm elections — put those races squarely in doubt. While F1 and the FIA believe those races will take place as scheduled, other events in the region have already been canceled. For example, the promoters of DAKAR 2027, the rally race that was set to take place in Saudi Arabia, announced Friday morning that the event will be held in January in Portugal and Morocco.

So, hypothetically, if both Qatar and Abu Dhabi are canceled, that means only two races remain, including the upcoming São Paulo Grand Prix.

That also means that counting this weekend, a maximum of 86 points are available.

With a current 126-point lead over Ferrari, in this hypothetical scenario, the Silver Arrows have already won the title.