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Ranking the Heisman favorites one month before they hand out the trophy

Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith once looked like the runaway favorite, but Notre Dame's C.J. Carr has closed the gap.

CJ Carr throws a pass against the Navy Midshipmen during the first half at Gillette Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

We’ve hit the stretch run of the college football season, the time of year when the cream rises to the top and the nation's best players make their closing arguments for the Heisman Trophy.

For weeks, it felt like a given that the real drama would be who'd finish second to Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith. But strong performances by some other contenders — along with an injury to one of Smith's key teammates, and his team's subsequent struggles — have shaken up the race.

With three weeks left in the regular season — and roughly a month before the Dec. 12 ceremony — here’s how we see the Heisman race shaping up:

C.J. Carr, QB, Notre Dame

Don’t look now, but Carr has emerged as the betting favorite to win the Heisman, according to FanDuel. That’s what quarterbacking a CFP-contending Notre Dame team to a prime-time victory over an undefeated No. 1 team will do. Carr was magnificent in beating Miami, throwing for a season-best 319 yards and three touchdowns in that 31-24 win while also doing arguably what he does best: avoiding mistakes.

Carr has thrown 262 passes this season. Only one has been intercepted. With three ACC teams — Boston College, SMU and Syracuse — remaining on the schedule, Carr has the kind of runway to keep putting up impressive numbers and strengthen his case to become just the second Notre Dame QB to win the Heisman.

Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State

Ohio State v USC | Luke Hales/GettyImages

It wasn’t long ago that the Heisman seemed like a foregone conclusion for Smith. He has been the most dynamic receiver in the country, ranking second with 133.3 yards receiving per game, and he had the Buckeyes seemed aimed for yet another College Football Playoff berth. Then he lost his quarterback: Julian Sayin injured his throwing arm in a win at Indiana and is out indefinitely. The Buckeyes have gone 0-2 in two full games without him, and it’s fair to wonder if replacement starter Luke Fahey will be able to set Smith up for success down the stretch — or if Ohio State can crawl back into the playoff race.

Dariah Mensah, QB, Miami

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Miami quarterback Darian Mensah | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Only one FBS player — Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker — has thrown for more touchdowns than Mensah, who has 28 TDs so far. He ranks in the top 10 nationally in yards (2,694), yards per game (299.3) and completions (212). And despite not having top target Malachi Toney, who was out with an ankle injury, he nearly led Miami back from a 24-3 deficit with three touchdown passes. But he completed just 56 percent of his passes, a season low. The key question going forward for Mensah: Will he be able to keep posting big numbers without Toney — the team leader in yards, catches and TDs?

Devon Dampier, QB, Utah

Utah quarterback Devon Dampier | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Including the quarterback for an undefeated, top-three team in the discussion seems like a no-brainer. But Dampier did more: He had his Heisman moment in the Utes’ biggest game, their Holy War rivalry with BYU. In the matchup of top-10 instate rivals, Dampier accounted for four touchdowns — two rushing, two passing — and had a pass, a rush and a reception of at least 25 yards apiece. Simply put, he placed the Utes on his back and carried them — precisely the kind of performance that will keep him top of mind for voters.

Nate Sheppard, RB, Duke

Duke running back Nate Sheppard | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Mensah’s former teammate at Duke, Sheppard averages 132.1 yards — best among Power Four rushers — and is tops among running backs with 17 touchdowns. Eight of those scores have come in the past two games, blowout victories over Boston College and North Carolina State. Heisman winners typically have a signature performance that crystallizes their candidacy — something that resembles Dampier’s day last Saturday in Salt Lake City. Sheppard doesn’t have that yet, but his chance comes this week against the Hurricanes and his ex-teammate.

Five more for the road

  • Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama
  • Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
  • Michael Hawkins Jr., QB, West Virginia
  • Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia
  • LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina
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