Atrás
Last week was another strong week for this series. I recommended Tee Higgins and Saquon Barkley as players to buy, while listing Bryce Young as a player to sell. This week, I’ve got a whole new batch of players that you should consider in trades.
Over the last three weeks, Chris Olave has been the WR29 in fantasy points per game; before that, he was the WR4. So what happened? Well, the Saints hit a rough stretch in their schedule against the Vikings, Steelers, and Giants. In those games, Olave still averaged over seven targets per game and put up startable fantasy numbers. It would seem that we know what the floor is with Olave. The price is likely at the floor right now. The Saints are on a bye, Jordyn Tyson is rumored to be returning soon, and recent performances likely have fantasy managers nervous. While I love Tyson as a prospect, I remain skeptical about his ability to remain on the field. Hamstring injuries are tricky. They don’t go away easily, and Tyson has a track record with them. Even upon his potential return after the bye week, Tyson will have an elevated reinjury risk that makes Olave a very intriguing buy-low candidate. As the cherry on top, I’ll also point out that Olave has some juicy fantasy playoff matchups against the Cardinals and Falcons over the final two weeks of the fantasy season.
This is probably the player I’ve felt most uneasy writing about, so you’re going to get a little extra context. Sometimes, I like to look for players coming off bad games in prime time. The price is lower and nobody is really interested in rostering that player. That’s exactly what’s happening with A.J. Brown after these last two weeks. In Week 6, Brown had a bunch of drops that made their way around social media—they were mostly waved off as him shaking off the rust. In Week 7, Brown had just three receptions for 48 yards. I went back to the film to see what went wrong. Brown was getting open just fine, there were no drops, and the quarterback play was solid—it just wasn’t his night.
Better days are likely ahead. However, there’s a chance that Brown has one more stinker this week against the Miami Dolphins—not because the Dolphins are particularly great against the pass, but because teams pass against them at the lowest rate in the NFL. That’s improved as of late, but there’s still a chance that the Patriots get ahead early and the game script leans a bit run-heavy.
Since returning, Brown has led the team in route share, target share, air yards share, and first-read targets – nearly all of those metrics have ranked in the top 10 in the NFL. With Romeo Doubs on IR and limited receiving options in the Patriots offense, Brown should have plenty of target volume to command. So what we’re looking at here is simply a player who was knocking off the rust and then suffering from a bit of variance. I also think it’s important to remember that Brown returned a few weeks early from a high ankle sprain that has likely limited him. Now looking forward, the road to the fantasy playoffs is a relatively easy one. The Patriots receivers have the sixth-easiest strength of schedule from Weeks 8–14. If the price is right on Brown, I’d begin the trade negotiations with the assumption that we’ll see some positive regression for the top receiver of one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks.
Maye reaffirms status as top-three fantasy QB
With another strong outing under his belt against the Bears, Drake Maye has re-established his status among fantasy's top quarterbacks.
On the surface, Jordan Mason’s RB43 performance in Week 7 wasn’t all that impressive; however, there are some solid underlying numbers to note. In his first game back, Mason commanded a 64 percent snap share and a 65 percent rush share. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones reaggravated a sprained left MCL that he suffered in Week 2. While the Vikings staff is saying that Jones is “day-to-day,” the 31-year-old veteran has a history of injuries keeping him out of games. If Mason handles the majority of snaps—or potentially takes on a workhorse role without Jones—he’s set up to face an easy set of opponents. The Vikings’ running backs have the fifth-easiest schedule over the next five weeks, which will be pivotal to fantasy managers looking to make the playoffs. Another bonus: Minnesota has already had its bye week, so there’s one less week to plan around.
I know this one feels crazy because Ashton Jeanty is the RB12 in fantasy points per game, but I’m a bit uneasy about his future. First things first, Jeanty does not look right. He’s been managing a right ankle sprain that he suffered during training camp. He appeared to have reinjured that ankle in Week 2, and since then he has been battling through the pain each week. Among 24 NFL starting running backs with at least 80 rush attempts, no player has a lower yards-per-carry average than Jeanty. The same can be said for his explosive run rate, rushing yards over expectation, and EPA per attempt. Both the numbers and the tape show that Jeanty is one of the least effective rushers in the NFL right now, and that’s an issue for the Raiders.
Las Vegas has lost each of its last four games, and the lack of a running game has been a major factor in those losses. Klint Kubiak’s offense thrives on the running game; without an effective running back, the offense tends to stall out. Kubiak has already said that Kirk Cousins will remain the team’s starter and that there is no controversy—yet. But what happens if the Raiders lose a handful of games before their Week 13 bye? That would seem like the ideal time to get rookie Fernando Mendoza into the lineup, and it would be just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
While that move might be good for the Raiders in the long term, it could be detrimental to Jeanty’s fantasy value, which has been extremely dependent on targets out of the backfield. We don’t have a good sample size for Mendoza in the pros; his college numbers suggest that he will likely target the running back a lot less than Cousins has. To give you a general idea, Jeanty has a 16.5 percent target share, third among all running backs, while Mendoza’s entire four-man backfield in college had less than a 7 percent target share, which would rank roughly 39th amongst qualifying running backs. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison, and I get that. I’m also certain that Kubiak would design targets for Jeanty as well. What worries me is the combination of Jeanty’s health, the lack of rushing success, a potential quarterback change at a bad time, backup Mike Washington Jr.’s growing role, and the ninth-toughest fantasy schedule for the Raiders running backs.
Pollard is a 'must play' after three TDs in Week 7
Patrick Daugherty and Kyle Dvorchak review the Tennessee Titans' running back Tony Pollard's impressive display in Week 7 with three touchdowns. They break down why Pollard should be in a fantasy manager's lineup.
This is the most sell-high of all sell-highs that have ever been. After being outside of the top 30 fantasy running backs in four of his first six games, Pollard had a massive blow-up in Week 7. Pollard’s three-touchdown performance is much more likely to be an outlier than a sign of things to come. In the coming weeks, Pollard will play the Bengals, who are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Then comes a bye week, followed by a matchup with the Jaguars, who are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Titans end up playing the Jaguars again in Week 12, which means Pollard will be virtually unusable for four of the next five weeks. Your leaguemates will instantly see that Pollard has only had one good game, but he can still be sold as part of a package deal. If you have him anywhere, I’d move on from him ASAP.
Keeping Jameson Williams on your roster is all about deciding whether you want to be along for the ride of touchdown variance. Over the last two weeks, Williams has caught four touchdowns and finished as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver in both matchups. This is likely the mountaintop for Williams. Next week, the Lions play the Vikings, who have been a buzzsaw for opposing offenses. The schedule doesn’t get any better after that; in fact, the Lions receivers have the toughest remaining fantasy schedule.
At the time of writing this article, Malachi Fields is available in at least 90 percent of Sleeper App leagues. Given that the Giants have a bye week this week, he’ll likely get dropped in most leagues he’s rostered in. Once Fields returns to action in Week 9, he and the Giants’ receivers will have the tenth-easiest remaining schedule, including fantasy playoff matchups against the Lions and Cowboys, both of which are in the top six in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Although Fields hasn’t been a reliable fantasy starter yet, the signs are pointing towards a legitimate breakout coming soon.
Since the switch to J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, Fields has seen a 19 percent target share in back-to-back games, including a WR20 fantasy performance in Week 7 against the Texans. McCarthy’s tendencies as a passer play to Fields’ strengths. Both players tend to thrive downfield, especially outside the numbers, and McCarthy’s gunslinger approach works in tandem with Fields’ contested catch abilities. We could see the rapport between Fields and McCarthy grow into a higher-volume relationship that leads to more touchdowns and explosive plays downfield.