Florida State basketball is off to a 2-0 start under Luke Loucks, but ESPN does not like the Seminoles’ chances in their first major test of the season.

According to ESPN’s Matchup Predictor, FSU has just a 13.8% chance to beat No. 1 Florida Gators on Tuesday night at the Donald L. Tucker Center. The Gators are given an 86.2% chance to win despite playing on the road.

The projection sets up a sharp contrast with Florida State’s strong start. The Seminoles have yet to trail through two games, opening with a 113-69 win over the Florida A&M Rattlers before beating the Troy Trojans 91-68 in their home opener. FSU is averaging 102.0 points per game and has out-rebounded its first two opponents 93-50.

Sebastian Rancik has led the offense at 21.5 points per game, while freshman center Marcis Ponder has recorded a double-double in each of his first two college games. Shon Abaev is also averaging six assists per game with just one turnover through the opening week.

Florida represents a much different challenge.

The Gators entered the season ranked No. 1 in both the AP and US LBM Coaches polls and are also 2-0. Florida opened with a 77-67 win over No. 14 Miami before cruising past Jacksonville 88-57. The Gators have shot 43.1% from 3-point range and are averaging 48 rebounds per game.

Florida has also won the last five meetings in the rivalry, including a 78-76 victory over FSU last season. The Gators lead the all-time series 49-28.

Still, Tuesday offers Loucks and the Seminoles an early opportunity to change the perception around this team. FSU has looked dominant through two games, and now it gets a chance to test that start against the top-ranked team in the country.

Florida State and Florida tip off at 6 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Tucker Center, with the game airing on ESPN2.