Oklahoma City is set for a new season, and its opener could be dictated by its outside shooting. 

On Tuesday night, the Thunder will tip off the 2026-27 season with a Western Conference Finals rematch in San Antonio against the Spurs. After a long offseason to think about their Game 7 loss, the Thunder will be looking for a bit of revenge against their newest rival. 

Going into the matchup, there has been no shortage of storylines to follow. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama all set to start, this could be the most anticipated game of opening night. 

While that star power will almost certainly impact the outcome, the 3-point shot may be the most overlooked factor in this game. Last season, the Thunder and Spurs shot roughly 36% from beyond the arc, each ranking in the top half of the league in that area.

The Thunder’s top 10 mark from beyond the arc last season may be tough to repeat after their offseason departures, but Tuesday night could be a great glimpse into how the rest of the season pans out. While 3-point shooting is obviously an important stat in the modern NBA, it was a critical part of last season’s Western Conference Finals.

Across the seven-game series, the team that shot a better percentage from beyond the arc went 5-2, with those wins coming in each of the final five matchups. So, going into the first matchup of the season, that outside shooting number could easily determine the outcome. 

For Oklahoma City to win, it will need to have a balanced approach from beyond the arc, and it will need some players to step up and showcase a higher volume from deep compared to last season. Jared McCain is an obvious name in that area, but guys like Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace could also give the Thunder a real boost from beyond the arc. 

Meanwhile, the Spurs will enter opening night with roughly the same squad that they had last season. With newly acquired Tobias Harris set to miss the opener, the Thunder know exactly what they’ll be tasked with from beyond the arc, and they’ll need to limit the outside shots that sometimes crushed them in the conference finals. 

Ultimately, the 3-point shot will only be one piece of the puzzle for the Thunder to open the season, but it could very well be the most important piece to getting a win on the road.