We’ve already had a look at which teams are currently worst off in the mundane, dreary real Premier League table when compared to their high-flying heroics in the much more important and far more fun Opta Expected Premier League table.

And, while we did that, we also made it very clear that this is all just a bit of fun and not worth getting upset about just because ‘xPts’ is even more triggering than ‘xG’. Okay? Remember how we established that? That it was all just a bit of harmless fun and not worth getting upset about?

Good, because he’s the inevitable equal-and-opposite feature that highlights which five massive frauds have fluked themselves into their current positions in the actual table when those with real ball knowledge can see all too clearly they should in some cases be at least 4.2 or maybe even 5.7 points worse off. And those are very real amounts of points.

Liverpool (+2.3pts)
A curious one in many ways, because it’s not immediately clear where Liverpool might have been picking up points they didn’t really deserve. As long as we accept as we surely must that Fabian Hurzeler’s insistence that only one team (i.e. not Liverpool) were trying to win their recent game against Brighton was just a load of salty old bumwater.

What Liverpool do tell us is that it can be fine margins in the Expected Premier League Table, because as well as Opta thinking Liverpool have got altogether more points than they should have, the naughty scamps, they also think Liverpool actually have fewer goals than ought to have been the case. And they only believe they should have conceded about another goal and a half.

Truly, the Expected League Table is a land of both mysteries and contrasts.

Chelsea (+2.8pts)
This is a fun one, because Chelsea have been very hard to pin down this season. The scientific term for what makes Chelsea tricky to judge is ‘They can’t defend for sh*t’.

Opta reckon Chelsea’s antics this season actually deserve a negative goal difference, and that’s despite Chelsea’s actual goals conceded total of 15 being significantly higher than Opta’s expected 11.4.

The reason Chelsea are overachieving? Very obviously the fact they’ve scored a f*ckton of goals as well – especially in the first 15 minutes for some reason – totalling a very healthy 17 from a far more middling xG of 10.3. Which to put it into context is lower than Ipswich, Fulham, Crystal Palace and most damning of all Manchester United.

Indeed, Opta – scamps that they are – go so far as to say Chelsea should actually be below United in the table right now, which is an interesting thought heading into their clash this weekend.

Newcastle United (+3.6pts)
Kind of makes sense, this one. To an extent anyway. Nobody really thinks Newcastle have played that well this season, albeit there are plenty of quite hefty caveats and various chunks of mitigation about why.

Despite all the doom and gloom, they currently sit cosily enough in mid-table with a satisfactory passing grade of 11 points from the first eight games of the season. Maybe Matthias Jaissle really is the messiah.

Opta are having absolutely none of that sh*t, though. Newcastle should in fact be bottom of the table with a mere 7.4 points to their name, marooned a full half-point behind second-bottom Hull and almost a whole point behind whichever one of Expected Palace or Expected Coventry currently holds 17th. As they are currently dead level in the Expected Table, that’s going to need an Expected Play-off to sort out.

Arsenal (+4.2pts)
And before you all get angry about The Conspiracy, whose familiar warm embrace several Arsenal fans have welcomed in light of a first red card in 80 games at the unacceptably titchy mini version of Highbury they have up in Fleetwood, please note that while Opta do believe Arsenal have a hefty chunk of points they don’t deserve, they should actually be top of the table despite that because…

Manchester City (+5.7pts)
Goes without saying that something as real and rigorous as the Expected Table can’t possibly be expected to factor in hypothetical things like just how hard City might yet get smacked about with the points-deduction stick. So for now it just works on the assumption that City get to keep all the points they win.

Even then, though, Opta reckon City should in fact be giving back very nearly six of their points due to being won by sham performances. It’s a revelation that will rock English football to its very core.

Things like beating Sunderland 5-3 in the real world while ‘losing’ 4-2 on xG are very much to the fore here. Although here at least City can provide incontrovertible proof that the actual result was indeed 5-3 in their favour.