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Saquon Barkley is set to return, among several other injured running backs. Some are clear starters, while others return to uncertain timeshares. PFN fantasy analysts Jason Katz and Kyle Soppe went through the week’s injury news and ranking changes on their Friday show on Pro Football Network’s YouTube channel, recorded before Friday’s practices.
They named three backfields where neither back was appealing but both could be started. As Soppe put it, “And that’s just setting fantasy managers up for failure here.”
Barkley was limited Thursday, which was Philadelphia’s first practice of the week because the 2-4 Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night. Katz noted that Barkley has struggled in fantasy this season and asked whether he had cleared 10 points even once. Katz still ranks him RB11. Soppe ranks him RB20 and calls him an RB2.
Soppe’s argument rests on the matchup and on the lack of other options in Philadelphia. “They need to play defense with their offense, and the best way to do that’s Saquon Barkley,” he said. He compared Barkley to Aaron Jones during Jordan Mason’s IR stint. By Soppe’s count, Jones had 97 touches over four games and stayed a fantasy starter even though few people think he’s still good. “It pains me to say Saquon Barkley is a version of Aaron Jones,” Soppe said.
Katz expects a heavy workload with Dameon Pierce as the backup. “This is probably going to be the closest we get to like rookie year Barkley in terms of playing time,” he said. DeVonta Smith, Dontayvion Wicks and Dallas Goedert all missed Thursday’s practice, and that could leave Barkley as the offense’s only real weapon with Tanner McKee at quarterback.
His receiving role is the worry. Katz said Barkley had exactly two targets in each of his three full games. If he can’t get more looks with the top pass catchers out, Katz said, “then just shut the door on Barkley as any sort of like productive fantasy asset this season, or probably ever again.” Soppe called the lack of passing-game work scary but said, “I’m not going to go that far.”
Mason is coming back from IR. Katz said he missed four games with a thumb injury that shouldn’t hold him back, while Jones has reportedly been playing through a sprained MCL. Katz asked whether Mason would take back the lead rushing role and push Jones into a receiving role. Soppe agreed. “You kick him outside, you give Jordan Mason the bulk of the work,” he said.
Soppe is more interested in the coming weeks than in Week 7. After hosting the Colts, Minnesota plays at the Detroit Lions, hosts the Buffalo Bills and visits the Green Bay Packers. “Jordan Mason I think is going to be a fantasy asset sooner rather than later, that just doesn’t mean sooner is in week seven,” he said.
Their combined rankings put the two backs at RB27 and RB28. The PFN Start/Sit Optimizer projected them almost evenly. “Even though Mason’s in his first game back, you can kind of trust him almost as much as you were trusting Aaron Jones before,” Katz said. Soppe expects a lopsided game to favor the early-down back. “But for this week, it’s Mason over Jones for me. I’m not too excited about either, but I think you can get away with both,” he said. Katz ranks Jones much higher than Soppe does and expects the 5-0 Vikings to have the ball enough to support both backs.
Hall missed Wednesday’s practice and then was limited Thursday. Katz said reports had him moving well and that Jets coach Aaron Glenn called Hall the team’s lead back. The Jets host the Miami Dolphins.
“I’ve still got Allen over Hall,” Soppe said. He doubts Hall gets anything like the 20 touches a game he had before the injury, and he pointed to Allen’s 75% catch rate and his yards per carry over the last two games. Soppe still sees Hall as the long-term starter, and he called both backs flex plays.
Katz leans toward Hall because of how Glenn talked about him, but he named the way that pick could go wrong. “There’s definitely a scenario where Breece Hall has more touches, but Braelon Allen gets those high-leverage touches, both in the passing game and at the goal line, and ends up scoring more fantasy points,” he said. Soppe said Katz’s pick, like his own Mason call, was “just a bet on the better player.”
This was the clearest split of the show. With rookie Jeremiah Love out, Soppe ranks Allgeier RB18 and Knight RB55. Katz has Knight at RB29 and Allgeier at RB31. The Cardinals host the Denver Broncos.
Soppe sides with Allgeier because of his 18 carries the previous week and because he was the pass-catching back when Love was healthy. He projects 13 to 16 carries and about three targets. “This really comes down to who you think is used in the passing game,” he said.
Katz pointed out that Knight had 15 carries of his own in that game and was much more efficient, while Allgeier averaged just over 2 yards per carry. “If you look at both of them play, and who has more juice, it’s very clearly Bam Knight,” Katz said. “I am going with what I think is going to be the guy who just earns the hot hand, because he’s the better player, and that’s Bam Knight.” Katz expects Love back in Week 8 or Week 9.
Both Browns backs are expected back against the Tennessee Titans, and both analysts rank Judkins as a midrange RB2. “I think this is kind of a knockoff version of what the Vikings will be with time,” Soppe said. In that comparison, Judkins plays the Mason role and Sampson plays the Jones role as the receiving back. Soppe said Judkins was averaging more than 18 touches a game and added, “Tennessee’s allowed the running back one on the opposing side to overachieve his season average in five out of six games.”
Katz ranks Sampson RB46, and Soppe has him at RB57. Katz would stash him because he would take over if Judkins went down, but he wouldn’t start him in Week 7. Soppe compared him to a low-end PPR flex, a player “you’re never excited about playing him, but if you have to, you do.”
Katz ranks Jeanty RB18 and calls him a soft sit. By Katz’s count, Jeanty averages 10.5 fantasy points a game from receiving alone, which means “he’s been scamming his way via receiving work.” Katz doesn’t trust that to hold up. “I feel like the bottom is going to fall out soon, where we get a game where he has like 10 carries for 37 yd, and two catches for 20 yd, and that’s his entire stat line,” he said.
Soppe agreed that Jeanty is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry but noted that his worst weekly finish was RB27. “I’m willing to be a week late rather than a week early there,” he said. Mike Washington was downgraded to a DNP on Thursday. If Washington sits, Soppe expects Dylan Laube to take most of his roughly six touches a game, which would leave Jeanty’s ranking about where it is.
Rice hadn’t practiced and was expected to miss another game. Katz said Worthy had seven targets in each of his last two games, including a 7-for-73 line on an 83% snap share. Both analysts rank him as a WR3, even though the Chiefs play at Seattle on Sunday night.
Soppe said Worthy had an average depth of target under 8 yards in four games. “We think of Worthy as a burner, and that’s just not how he’s being used,” he said. He added that Seattle has been more vulnerable on short passes than deep ones, especially if it focuses on stopping Kenneth Walker III.
Katz’s concern is Walker himself. Katz sees the game as a revenge spot for Walker, who left Seattle unhappy with how he was used. “I think we’re going to get a lot of Kenneth Walker III,” Katz said. He still likes Worthy as the top receiver when Kansas City throws. “More of a floor game, probably, but you never know.”
Katz said Smith returned from a two-game hamstring absence the previous week and then missed Thursday’s practice. Soppe’s answer was short: “It’s DeVonta Smith or bust at the wide receiver position.” He ranks Goedert TE10 if Goedert plays. Soppe said McKee threw 45 passes against Carolina the previous week and only two Eagles reached 25 receiving yards. “I don’t even feel good about Smith, to be completely honest here, but I’ll start him, I’m not touching the others,” Soppe said.
Katz feels better about a healthy Smith against a Dallas defense he called really bad. If Smith, Wicks and Goedert all sit, Katz said, McKee’s top targets would be Makai Lemon, Darius Cooper, Zach Ertz and Hollywood Brown.
Katz said Evans aggravated his Achilles tendinitis and won’t play, while Christian Kirk practiced fully and is expected back from IR. Soppe won’t start any San Francisco receiver. “Kittle, McCaffrey, that’s it. Be on your way,” he said, adding that George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey had drawn 42.8% of the team’s targets even with Evans healthy.
Katz expects one receiver to have a usable week but doesn’t know which one. If you’re desperate, he’d pick Kirk. Soppe would start any of the backup running backs from the split backfields above before him. “I’d play all of them over Christian Kirk,” he said.
Mayfield missed two games with a thumb injury. Katz said reports early in the week had Tampa Bay preparing to start his backup, but Mayfield then practiced fully Wednesday. Katz ranks him QB20, and Soppe has him at QB31. Soppe wouldn’t start either Tampa Bay quarterback at Carolina. “There’s just too many good options this week,” he said. He named streamers such as Bo Nix against Arizona.
Katz believes Chris Godwin is finished as a fantasy option (“Godwin’s done”). Katz said Emeka Egbuka likely won’t play, and he raised Cade Otton’s ranking during the show. Soppe wasn’t interested. “It’s just never Cade Otton week for me,” he said. “He’s always out there, and he never earns targets.” He’d take a long shot on Tez Johnson or Ted Hurst instead, and he noted that Carolina has allowed the sixth-fewest red zone trips per game. Soppe would only start Otton in a narrow case: Mayfield playing, Egbuka out and AJ Barner as the alternative.
Warren hasn’t practiced since hurting his groin, and Katz said Will Mallory drew six targets on about half the snaps in his place. Neither analyst wants Mallory against Minnesota. Soppe said Daniel Jones ranks in the bottom five in PFN’s Impact grades and that no Indianapolis receiver has reached 65 yards more than four times in total.
Katz would start Jonathan Taylor and maybe Keenan Allen and no other Colts. “Brian Flores is going to blitz the hell out of Daniel Jones, and he’s not going to know what to do,” he said. Soppe didn’t blame Colts coach Shane Steichen. “I’m not sure there’s an offensive mind on planet Earth, living or dead, that could figure out this Colts offense against this Vikings defense,” he said.
Both analysts said to start Taylor against Minnesota even though they don’t like the spot. Every other Colt, Mallory included, is a sit.