A fourth-and-3 in the first quarter of Monday Night Football turned into a debate about analytics, and ESPN analyst Troy Aikman ended up in the middle of it. His comment about NFL head coaches during the San Francisco 49ers’ game against the Washington Commanders drew quick pushback from the analytics community.

The game aired nationally on ESPN and ABC, with Joe Buck and Aikman in the booth together. Before the snap, Buck noted that there is “a lot of gut feel with the coaches in spots like this.” Aikman agreed and went further.

“Yeah, I agree. And I think analytics is a good way to lose your job as a head coach. And I think you’ve got to be smart about it. Kyle certainly is, and the analytics, by the way, does say go for it. But as you mentioned, it’s not something that Kyle Shanahan pays that much attention to. It’s more gut than anything else.”

The 49ers entered Week 6 at 5-0 and hosted the 1-3-1 Commanders at Levi’s Stadium on Oct. 19. San Francisco led 7-3 after quarterback Brock Purdy connected with tight end George Kittle for an 11-yard touchdown and Drew Stevens kicked a 51-yard field goal for Washington. Facing fourth-and-3 from the Commanders’ 11-yard line with 5:42 left in the quarter, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan chose to go for it.

Aikman made it sound like Shanahan goes with his gut rather than analytics, even when the numbers support the call. But Shanahan has said he takes analytics into account. After the 49ers lost 25-22 to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, he explained that he had discussed the overtime options with the analytics staff before deciding to receive the ball first. San Francisco kicked a field goal on their first possession; Kansas City responded with a touchdown.

“That’s just something we talked about,” Shanahan said. “None of us have a ton of experience, but we went through the analytics and talked to those guys. We decided it’d be better. We wanted the ball third.

“Our analytics felt that was the best way to go,” he said.

The 49ers still led 20-3 at halftime. A 54-yard Purdy completion to Mike Evans set up McCaffrey’s first 1-yard TD run. McCaffrey scored again with 4:09 left in the first quarter, and San Francisco held a 303-90 edge in total yards at the break. Evans was later ruled out with an Achilles injury, and Washington receiver Terry McLaurin was carted off with a leg injury.

The fierce reaction to Aikman’s line came fast on X, and much of it came from people who work with football data.

“Honestly wonder what great wrong analytics perpetrated on Troy Aikman for him to hate them with the intensity he does. Such a bizarre reaction to just being better informed,” NFL analyst Sam Monson said.

Football analyst Austin Mock argued that the league has spent a decade embracing analytics and that broadcasters should explain the concept instead of dismissing it.

“Instead of ignoring the part of the game that the entire league is embracing over the past decade, maybe try to understand it and explain it to viewers,” Mock said.

Fantasy football analyst JJ Zachariason joked that a dig at analytics is a regular part of Aikman’s broadcasts.

“It’s not a Troy Aikman broadcast until he shits on analytics,” Zachariason joked.

Another user, in disbelief, was confirming the comment was real.

“‘I think analytics is good way to lose your job’ is a real thing Troy Aikman said on the broadcast.”

For what it is worth, Aikman said the analytics and Shanahan’s gut agreed on that fourth-and-3, and the 49ers walked into halftime with a 17-point lead.

On the other hand, Aikman is still without a contract extension, even after Joe Buck signed a new deal. His recent mistakes during broadcasts could further complicate his future with ESPN, especially with Aikman set to become a free agent after next season.

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