Sunderland have endured a difficult start to the 2026/27 Premier League season, with just four points from their opening seven games leaving them 20th in the table. The Black Cats have struggled to find the back of the net, scoring just six goals while conceding 14 at the other end. However, their underlying numbers suggest they have been unfortunate to collect so few points.

This is a remarkable turnaround from last season, when Sunderland finished seventh with 54 points despite underlying numbers suggesting they should have been relegated in 18th place. The statistics paint a fascinating picture of how quickly fortunes can change in the Premier League, with Sunderland going from overachieving their underlying numbers to falling short of what their performances deserve.

Sunderland were lucky to finish seventh in the Premier League last season

Sunderland enjoyed an impressive return to the Premier League in 2025/26, finishing seventh and securing European football for the first time in 53 years. However, their underlying numbers suggested they were actually one of the weakest teams in the division, with an expected points total of 41 putting them 18th.

The Black Cats scored 42 goals from an expected goals (xG) total of 38.6, an overperformance of 3.4 goals. They also conceded just 48 goals despite an expected goals against (xGA) total of 54.4, meaning they let in 6.4 fewer goals than expected.

Sunderland finished the season with 54 points, 13 more than their expected total. According to that measure, they should have finished 11 places lower and been relegated to the Championship.

Of course, expected points cannot account for everything that determines a team’s success, and outperforming the numbers does not automatically mean a team has been lucky. However, the gap between Sunderland’s actual results and what the underlying data suggested was enormous.

Sunderland have been unlucky at the start of the 2026/27 season

The contrast with last season is striking, as Sunderland have struggled to turn their performances into positive results. After seven Premier League games in 2026/27, the Black Cats have scored just six goals and collected four points, leaving them bottom of the table. However, their expected goals total stands at 10.6, suggesting they should have scored 4.6 more goals than they have managed.

Sunderland’s defensive numbers tell a different story. They have conceded 14 goals from an expected goals against (xGA) total of 14.3, meaning they have conceded almost exactly as many goals as expected. Their defensive record is therefore largely in line with the chances they have allowed, rather than being the result of particularly poor finishing from opposition teams.

The biggest difference comes in their points total. Sunderland have eight expected points but have collected just four, while their actual league position (20th) is five places below their expected position (15th). That suggests the Black Cats have not had the results their performances deserve so far.

Seven games is still a relatively small sample, but Sunderland’s attacking numbers offer some encouragement. If they can start taking more of their chances, Regis Le Bris’ side could turn some of those performances into wins and begin climbing the table.