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Analytics studies have consistently shown that NFL teams should go for it on fourth down more often. But the coach who may be the most aggressive in the league on fourth downs says he hasn’t studied the math behind the decision.
Lions coach Dan Campbell said he has confidence in his offense picking up a few yards any time it needs a few yards, and that’s more about his personality than anything else.
“I don’t do this big study on what’s the success rate,” Campbell said. “To me every week is different on how you’re doing it, who you have, who they have, and either you’re going or you’re not going, more than the actual numbers. I’m always going to say within a yard, two yards, three, you’re down in the red zone, your odds are pretty good that you’re going to have success. I think it’s just part of my flavor, what I believe in.”
Campbell said his approach with his team might not be the right approach for every coach with every team.
“Everybody’s different. It doesn’t mean right/wrong,” Campbell said. “It’s really what you believe in and there’s no right or wrong. It’s what you really believe is gonna help you win that game that week, that opponent, who do you have, where are you at, weather, all of that stuff.”
Campbell both played for and coached under Sean Payton, and Campbell said Payton influenced his thinking because Payton always expressed confidence in what the Saints’ offense could do with players like Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara, regardless of whether he was making the by-the-book decisions.
“Sean certainly did,” Campbell said. “Sean had plenty of both. He was very balanced in that way, but I’ve mentioned this before: If you really believe, there were times he’d come in and say, ‘I love our third-and-2, third-and-3, I’ve got eight plays I love. Inside the 5-yard line, I’ve got eight plays I love and I know who we’re going to with Drew Brees.’ And you knew those weeks, it was a go. Fourth-and-5, I know we’re going to get man-to-man, we’re gonna get AK one-on-one, there’s no doubt about it, I don’t care if it’s fourth-and-2 or fourth-and-6, we’re going to get one-on-one with AK on this and we’re going to make the play. It was really about how good you feel with what you have.”
Campbell also said his coach at Texas A&M, R.C. Slocum, had success using the opposite approach, thinking of punting as a perfectly good result for his offense.
“I understand the other side of it,” Campbell said. “I was trained in the other side of it. I played in the other side of it. I’ve mentioned this before, college, my first exposure, R.C. Slocum was an outstanding coach, man. Outstanding. Won a lot of games, defensive mentality, and there was times I really felt like he was nervous when the offense was on the field. You guys just hurry up, now punt, now let’s go defense. We’re gonna score on defense. Wrecking Crew. So I know all of that.”
Campbell even said he shares the philosophy of John Candy’s character in the movie Uncle Buck: The title character wore a hat that a lot of people hated, but he liked it so he wore it.
“You guys ever seen Uncle Buck?” Campbell asked a group of reporters. “I think I’m a little bit like . . . the hat that he wears, right? It’s a little bit of a flavor and it’s my favorite hat, but just the mere sight of it, I think, really bothers a lot of people. So I always think of Uncle Buck, where John Candy is wearing it: Is it the hat?”
Campbell went for it on fourth-and-1 with 4:53 remaining in the fourth quarter in Sunday’s win over the Packers, a decision that it’s unlikely any other NFL coach would have made. The Lions were stuffed for a two-yard loss on the play, but they won the game anyway, and Campbell said he stands by that decision.
“I know what it is,” Campbell said. “But I also know there’s times, if you don’t do what you believe in and you’re sitting there and you don’t get a chance — it’s really about, when I lay my head on the pillow at night, what can I sleep with and feel good about. I don’t like the fact that we didn’t make the play the other day, believe me. But I can lay my head on the pillow at night knowing that that was the right decision.”