Weeks before the Oklahoma State Cowboys kicked off the season, I was given an assignment — put together the Cowboys’ best-case scenario for the 2026 season.

At the time, the vibes around the program were great — but the Cowboys hadn’t played a game. It was all potential. In an era where one- or two-year turnaround jobs are becoming less of an exception, it’s easy to get caught up in what programs like Indiana and think, “Why not Oklahoma State?”

I tried to be realistic without being too bullish. I arrived at 8-4 with a 6-3 record in Big 12 play.

After six games, the Cowboys are 4-2 and 2-1 in Big 12 play. They’re halfway home — nearly as I projected.

That’s not to toot my own horn. But the path underscores how far the Cowboys have come — and how far they have yet to go.

Six Games Into a New Era

.@DrewMestemaker 🤝 @wyatttyoung

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/HhPaadFv3X

— OSU Cowboy Football (@CowboyFB) October 18, 2026

For the record, this is how I projected the Cowboys would start the season:

Win over Tulsa

Loss to Oregon

Win over Murray State

Win over West Virginia

Win over UCF

Loss to Houston

I missed on Tulsa and Oregon. But the Cowboys arrived at the same record at the midway point. More important to me is how Oklahoma State has done in Big 12 play to this point.

I felt the West Virginia and the UCF games were 50-50 games for OSU. They were against team that were under .500 last season and trying to get to the same place the Cowboys are. I felt the offense would carry the day in those two games and that turned out to be the case.

The game against Houston would be against a team that I felt had a chance to get to the Big 12 Championship game. When I wrote the piece, I expected it to be a close game but for Houston to win. When I wrote my bold predictions piece for the game, I flipped to OSU for three reasons:

The offense was in better shape than I expected after six games;

The defense was in much better shape than I expected after six games;

The Cougars were without three defensive starters.

I called a field-goal game and I was right. I just had the wrong winner.

Head coach Eric Morris was unhappy with a lot of things after this game. That defense that has played well over its head the past few weeks finally came down to earth. That was the talent deficit I was more concerned about coming into the season. When a “bend but don’t break” unit breaks, it breaks with little warning. The Cowboys did on Saturday, especially the secondary which missed assignments and committed unnecessary penalties.

Still, the Cowboys could have won. But when you’re a team trying to rebuild like Oklahoma State, the margins are so narrow between winning and losing — especially when you lose.

OSU was 4-for-5 in the red zone. But one drive ended with a field goal and another on downs. That’s when Morris chose to go for it on 4th-and-goal. He bypassed the field goal, which would have tied the game in the final analysis.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker had a great game but nearly threw two interceptions and were dropped by defenders. Wide receiver Terrence Lewis was called for a fumble but got lucky when replay revealed he hadn’t made a football move. Oh, and Shaun Torgeson allowed a sack, which led to a fumble and then picked it up and ran three yards.

Houston had not been a good team on fourth down this season. The Cougars went 3-for-3 on fourth down. Quarterback Conner Weigman lit OSU up and the Cowboys still only lost by three. One more sack, one more third down stop might have done it.

That’s how small the margins are right now for Oklahoma State. The difference between winning and losing may be one play per game right now.

But, after six games, the Cowboys are right where I thought they would be. And, if you’re a Cowboys fan and you thought Oklahoma State would be 4-2 after six games, you would have taken it, right?

Of course you would have. And, you’d probably take 8-4, too. So, we’ll see.